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California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

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Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#261

Post by WalterBright »

mschuster91 wrote: post #223
WalterBright wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every house has many energy-hungry devices that can time shift their use. 1. electric car battery recharging 2. hot water heater - heat it to the max of the range when electricity is cheap 3. A/C - cool it to the coldest end of the range when electricity is cheap and so on. 1,2,3 are just the start of what can be done, cheaply, to shape demand to the price. > devestating People adjust their use of gasoline based on t…

> People adjust their use of gasoline based on the constantly shifting prices. This is how demand is shaped to match supply. Yeah, but unlike electricity gas can be stored efficiently and long term - your typical 5-series BMW has ~60l of tank volume, a Ford F150 has ~90-100l, not to mention jerry cans. That means when gas is expensive, a consumer usually can choose to simply fill up the tank at another date.

People don't actually do that.

Electricity can be "stored" in hot water in the hot water tank, the thermal mass of the house, and in the battery in the electric car. This can greatly mitigate the demand for electricity at night, for example.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#262

Post by WalterBright »

pjc50 wrote: post #219
WalterBright wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, I know about the Texas example. It wasn't the concept that was bad, it was the implementation. The implementation needs to be coupled with meters where you can set a max price you'll accept. Any system where you sign a contract that says you'll pay any price to turn on a lamp is idiotic, and so are the people who sign such contracts. (The wholesale prices fluctuation does little to affect demand, because the dema…

> The implementation needs to be coupled with meters where you can set a max price you'll accept. Systems where your house goes dark and cold in the middle of a blizzard are never going to be popular no matter how "rational" they are.

The alternative is the lights go out anyway because of rolling blackouts.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#263

Post by WalterBright »

DocTomoe wrote: post #235
WalterBright wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd be happy, but that happiness would fade after not too long. It was tried in the US in the 1970s, and produced long gas lines, shortages, and gluts. It's what always happens when the government engages in price fixing and supply fixing.

You mean like OPEC? Also, I did not even mention price or supply fixing: prices can be stable for reasons outside governmental and/or monopolistic-evildoer's direct control.

I meant Nixon's price and allocation controls he imposed on gas. The proof that the lines were not OPEC's doing is the moment Reagan repealed those controls, the gas lines disappeared and never came back.

And I mean the moment. Gas lines one day, gone the next.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#264

Post by WalterBright »

dpierce9 wrote: post #245
WalterBright wrote: post #177

If electricity is cheaper to generate when the sun is shining, the retail price of electricity should reflect that. In fact, the retail price should fluctuate minute by minute, so that demand can be shaped to match supply. Trying to match variable supply to a fixed retail electric rate is certain to cause energy gluts and shortages. For example, I'd be happy to charge my electric car during price minima, heat the ele…

Renewables do make electricity cheaper. Here is a highly simplified version of how rates are set: Fixed price = (unit cost + a profit margin) * number of units The fixed price is set for a period of time based on historical and forecasted costs. Which costs are allowed and the profit margin for regulated utilities serving fixed price load is determined by the public service commissions. When their costs go down the r…

That formula denies how markets work, and gets us high priced electricity and rolling blackouts.

Like it or not, supply of electricity with renewables is highly variable. Fixed price electric rates are simply incompatible with that.

P.S. Back in the 70's when the DOE allocated gas and set prices, it was simply unable to react to varying gas supplies and demand. The result was gas lines for years until Reagan repealed all that nonsense.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#265

Post by WalterBright »

yazaddaruvala wrote: post #230
WalterBright wrote: post #177

If electricity is cheaper to generate when the sun is shining, the retail price of electricity should reflect that. In fact, the retail price should fluctuate minute by minute, so that demand can be shaped to match supply. Trying to match variable supply to a fixed retail electric rate is certain to cause energy gluts and shortages. For example, I'd be happy to charge my electric car during price minima, heat the ele…

This would definitely work, but would require a big infra adjustment. I don’t know but I wonder if (and it seems likely that) the time arbitrage of electrons is better/simpler (and cheaper?) solved by batteries now or in a few years time.

What batteries ain't is cheap. Grid scale batteries so you can have a fixed price 24/7 will more than double your electricity bills. If they can be built at all, with their massive need for rare metals.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#266

Post by ben_w »

himinlomax wrote: post #238
ben_w wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First: So? PV is so cheap overcapacity isn’t unreasonable. Second: My first visit to the USA, I saw people surfing in Asilomar on Christmas Day/Boxing Day and it remained warm and sunny throughout my stay in California, yet a few days into that trip New York was suffering a blizzard that Trump was trying to argue disproved global warming: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2014_North_American_cold...

> First: So? PV is so cheap overcapacity isn’t unreasonable. You're assuming they have an infinite lifespan. They don't.

No I’m not. If I thought they had infinite lifespan I would be claiming solar was effectively free rather than, as I am actually claiming, just cheap.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#267

Post by barfingclouds »

offmycloud wrote: post #148

Their math seems off. I really don't see how you get to 97% renewable when the state was burning natural gas to generate 2.8 GW of non-renewable power and had about 1.1 GW of nuclear at the time. There might be some funny math here where they assign all of the "dirty" power generated in the state to exports and can claim that that California is running on renewable power. Source: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/P…

Yeah California imports green energy from other states, and based on what you’re saying exports dirty energy. Maybe even to those same states.

The only critique I’ll say though is nuclear is definitely clean energy.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#268

Post by idiotsecant »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #212
standardUser wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"No, having too much power without storage is exactly as bad as not enough." That makes no sense to me.

I agree. The excess can be used to produce hydrogen gas (for heavy industry) from splitting water.

if you have hydrogen splitters than you don't have excess power. You have as much load as you have power.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#269

Post by WalterBright »

aitchnyu wrote: post #236
WalterBright wrote: post #177

If electricity is cheaper to generate when the sun is shining, the retail price of electricity should reflect that. In fact, the retail price should fluctuate minute by minute, so that demand can be shaped to match supply. Trying to match variable supply to a fixed retail electric rate is certain to cause energy gluts and shortages. For example, I'd be happy to charge my electric car during price minima, heat the ele…

Are there any residential water heaters or ACs with "storage" that works till 4 pm and releases at 10pm?

I have a conventional water heater, and when a tree falls on the power lines I discovered that the water will remain hot enough for a shower for 3 days.

I don't see any problem with heating the water to the max during the day, and you'll be able to enjoy the hot water at night.

With your existing heater.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#270

Post by ajross »

notch656a wrote: post #256
ajross wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Total Texas energy production during the worst part of the crisis last winter was like 60% of maximum though. Most generators were running. If consumer had to pay a 2x premium then no one would have even complained; we'd have all said the system was working. But that's not how it works, because as I mentioned the demand curve is non-linear. When you have 60% power, yet 60.1% of your capacity needs to go to "must keep…

You don't 'need the lights on.' I have lived in multiple third world countries where outages happen regularly if you have electricity at all. This is a failure of customers to adequately prepare and instead playing the victim because of their failures. People knew for years Texas grid was vulnerable, and it's an exquisite display of Darwin Award for those who didn't prepare for it. Only a moron doesn't keep some sort…

> You don't 'need the lights on.'

Hospitals do. Street lights do. Network operators do. Just think back to the beginning of the pandemic and how many industries were suddenly discovered to be "essential". You're thinking from the perspective of "can I, personally, suffer a power outage in my own home[1]" and imaginging that "running a civilization" works like that. There are many entities who simply can't stop buying power.

> Only a moron [...]

Please think harder here. It's not remotely as simple as you think it is.

[1] Knowing that you can use your phone to reach effective emergency services in the event of need, of course.

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