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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#261

Post by ggm »

djmips wrote: post #236
pengaru wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or mosquitoes and the malaria they spread... Malaria was responsible 405,000 deaths globally in 2018 according to [0]. [0] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-m...

How many people do you know with malaria? It's a tropical region disease. In a pandemic of Covid-19, it is going to affect people all over the world in every region.

How many people do you know with malaria? It's a tropical region disease.

No. The name is Italian. It predates Italian colonies in the tropics. It's a disease which was endemic in marshlands believed to be caused by bad air Mal aria and was in Scotland amongst other places.

Malaria is not exclusively tropical. Nor is dengue or mosquito borne encephalitis. Tropical wet regions sustain mosquitos. So do cooler climates.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#262

Post by baq »

shadowprofile77 wrote: post #218
rococode wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's one of the higher-profile examples: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-kills-chinese-film-... > Chang's father, mother and sister also died from the disease, Chinese financial news outlet Caixin reported. His father first exhibited symptoms of the coronavirus on January 25, but was turned away at hospitals because of a lack of beds, leaving him to fight the disease at home. He died days later, followed b…

Completely speculating here but this specific case sounds like a bad luck situation in which the family in question had an extreme genetic susceptibility to suffering the virus at its worst. As other comments have pointed out (and the data so far seems to back) the vast majority 81%+ of cases are fairly mild or even asymptomatic and the elderly are those who suffer the higher 2%+ mortality rates (based on what I've r…

if you give a million monkeys a typewriter and wait a million years, you're bound to get all works of Shakespeare by chance alone. yes, bad luck, but the fact it happened illustrates the scale.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#263

Post by 9nGQluzmnq3M »

dahdum wrote: post #254
_-___________-_ wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon There's no evidence that you are remotely likely to catch COVID-19 by doing any of those things either.

There’s ample evidence “going to church” is one way, and that’s not much different than the others.

Perhaps if your church likes to pack in people so closely that they're touching and thinks that it's your duty to God to repeatedly drag yourself to church no matter how sick you are. (The likely index patient apparently attended services 4 times after symptoms started.)

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#264

Post by baq »

mlang23 wrote: post #120
jankotek wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you tell me in what way authoritatian countries (aka China) handles this situation better? Italy closed 50k people into quarantine, government talks about military and EU was deciding about closing borders. All of this days after confirmed cases. I am sure officials would have no trouble to isolate major city. China has many internal problems, we just do not see them. Government refuses foreign doctors. If cris…

Don't count on the EU doing anything other then slow talk. They are definitely not going to close any borders. At least I would be very surprised if they did.

go read the treaties before commenting about this topic.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#265

Post by allovernow »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #227
netheril96 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.

> boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon There's no evidence that you are remotely likely to catch COVID-19 by doing any of those things either.

You really need to keep up with the literature. A paper recently came out which says it can survive ten days at ambient temperature a on most plastic and steel surfaces. And others have reported it is aerosolized. It spreads through cough, sneeze, and breath.

This one is different.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#266

Post by baq »

mlang23 wrote: post #217
dx034 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the EU as an institution but single countries. I wouldn't be surprised if Austria closes their border if there are more cases in Northern Italy. Germany, Switzerland and France could also follow. I believe they'd still let freight through (maybe with tests for drivers) to not hurt the economy too much. Ironically, the refugee situation a few years back helped those countries as they now have the infrastructure to…

Tourism, in all directions, is too important a factor that closing up borders is really on the table right now. Austria for instance, where I come from, will definitely NOT close the borders to Italy in the upcoming days. And in my personal opinion, there is really no reason to panic because of a media-hyped flu outbreak.

famous last words of a certain Hubei governor.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#267

Post by 9nGQluzmnq3M »

kenneth wrote: post #173
DocG wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand your point, but I think that is not going to be the case. As I understood, these viruses like mild climates. All souther countries are safer, in a way that virus can't survive for too long. And soon when the summer heat will reach China, the virus will whither there also. Edit - some kind of source - https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/hot-climate-...

The virus is spreading just fine in warmer climates like Singapore. You can't make that assumption.

No, the virus appears to be quite well contained in Singapore. The number of new patients in the last three days was 0, 1, and 1 respectively, all tied to known clusters and found through aggressive contact tracing and testing.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#268

Post by asiachick »

_nkl1 wrote: post #156
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things.

Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this particular case that feature will turn out to be bug.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#269

Post by baq »

LeoPanthera wrote: post #110
chime wrote: post #93

For anyone looking for more, try the subreddits /r/Covid19 (scientific/medical info), /r/CoronaVirus (maintstream news), and /r/China_Flu (social posts).

I'm not sure I trust Reddit, or indeed any social media, for reliable reporting on such an emotive topic. There's already so much misinformation and conspiracy theories about the disease.

/r/covid19 in particular is very good, highly recommended.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#270

Post by timr »

Alex3917 wrote: post #49
DrJaws wrote: post #35

It will be cancelled. Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers between 40 and 70% world adult population will be infected in one year and numbers of deaths will be between 30 and 150 million if their predictions are correct and china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Read the threads from their twitters, the situation is much much wors…

> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...

That is not true. Of people officially diagnosed in Wuhan, the death rate is the 2.3% being widely reported:

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

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