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Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

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Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From your first comment: > Without getting in to a lot of detail, the source I found was very reliable and did not show any upward (or downward) trend in either count of fires or total acreage on an annual basis since the 1960s. I pointed this out - not as proof that climate change did not affect fires - but as a simple data point that didn't seem to match his assertion. That is called a "conclusion", no matter how m…

He said, "Too bad climate change is causing more fires" I said, "I just looked at this data and don't see a big trend. Even if there was a trend, how do you know it's climate change?" He said, "I have no idea, I just assumed that from what I heard" I didn't have a conclusion then, and I don't have one now. If you take out two 3-year clusters in the last decade there is no trend at all. And 35 years of reliable data s…

> If you take out two 3-year clusters in the last decade there is no trend at all.

I would love to address each of your statements point by point, but it's been an interminably long week and I don't have the time. But this one I can knock out pretty fast.

I pulled the 1983 - 2017 series data from NIFC and created four different data sets from it, and charted each one. Each chart shows the values in red, the simple linear regression from 1983 to 2017 as a single red line, and a 5-year-running average in blue.

First, the raw data: https://ibb.co/iNQi8U ... there's a negligible change to the running average from 1983 to 1997, but from 1997 to 2009 there is a visually obvious increasing trend. The linear regression shows a 400% increase in acreage burned per year from 1983 to 2017.

Now, there are three different ways someone might "take out" 6 of the last 10 years. I think it's completely absurd to make any kind of argument by just deleting 60% of the data you don't like until the result looks the way you want it to look, but I'll play along. For each of the following charts, I just edited the same 6-highest years from 2007 to 2017.

One way to do this is to simply delete the years from the dataset. You pretend they didn't happen, and see what the overall data looks like then. And here it is: https://ibb.co/gRuzhp ... so here we see that there's still a clear upward trend, even with those years removed. The trend has been reduced to a mere 300% increase from 1983 to 2017, but there it is. You can see the obvious change in the data in the sharp decrease in the 5-year running average line.

A slightly more correct way to handle this is to decide that there's something wrong with the data for those years, and replace those years with approximate average values for the time period. This is occasionally done in climate science by people much smarter than me in cases where it's discovered that, say, a weather station sensor malfunctioned for a period of time. This chart looks like this: https://ibb.co/fvr1v9 ... it's fairly identical to the previous one.

Now, the other way we can do it, the most dishonest way we can do it, is to replace the values for each of those years with "0". As in, for that entire year, we subtract all wildfire activity, and pretend that the year went by with nary a spark. What does it look like then? https://ibb.co/hEWehp Ah! Now we finally get the flat trend we wanted. You can see the really obvious negative forcing on the 5-year running average when those years are left in the dataset but with "0" values.

There are answers to your other questions. The neat thing about news articles on this subject is that most of them can be traced back to some study, expert statement, or research paper. So if you're really interested in getting your questions answered, it shouldn't take more than a few hours' effort.

For example, one of my earlier links, https://theconversation.com/wildfires-in-west-have-gotten-bi..., included a nice graph of federal funds spent on fire suppression. At the bottom of that graph is a link to the NIFC data it was sourced from. So, there's a reasonable answer for "the amount of effort put towards fighting them".

And then you could look at that graph, and then look back at the increase-in-acreage graphs, and imagine what they would look like if federal spending on wildfire suppression were mostly flat, maybe just tracking with inflation.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#262
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't Zillow ignoring the immense value created from all those new beachfront properties?

This is actually a joke i have told my wife who has family in Florida: The only way i would buy property in Florida is if im allowed to build an artificial hill/mountain on it, so that in 100 years my family will own a private island. I wonder if there is a long term business model here... Invest in land and prepare it to survive being surrounded by water, build infrastructure etc and then sell it to the same type of…

You're behind the game. Seriously, there was a major supreme court ruling in 2013 that allowed floating homes to be legally classified as homes instead of marine vessels which affords a whole slew of critical protections and distinctions. In everything from protection against seizure to the coast guard not being able to walk into your home to inspect for life jackets.

Kind of makes you wonder why we haven't already been doing this on areas just off the current coast. Guess that old saying really is accurate -- necessity is the mother invention. Dutch Docklands is one of the companies building these new facilities. Their mock ups [1] look amazing.

[1] - http://www.dutchdocklands.com/Development/United-States

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#263

> One morning in June, Douglas Yoder climbed into a white government SUV... This again. I won't stop complaining about this tedious journalistic style until it finally dies. I don't want to hear a personal story of a random person that's related to the issue in some way. I certainly don't want to read anything about how he spends his day - I value my own day too much for that. I just want to read about the issue itse…

Bloomberg writers definitely overuse this hook, but long-reads are more narrative-focused, so it totally makes sense to introduce the issue this way — just not every time.

I don't mind narrative, but I want narrative about technologies and science instead of people. If you can't write a narrative without focusing on people, may be you shouldn't write about science and tech at all.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#264

There are technical solutions to all of this. I come from a country that has been fighting back the sea for centuries (Netherlands) and that has been exporting it's knowledge to do so for a long time as well. The basic consensus is that we'll need bigger dikes and a few other things over the next decades. Plenty of time to build that. Not a problem. At least not in places that can afford to invest in solutions. Basic…

What is the bedrock of the Netherlands, geologically speaking? Pumps, dikes, and the like won't help that much in Miami because the porous limestone underlying the city allows water under and around these traditional methods.

Non existing. Basically every building in Holland is build on 'stilts'. 40-100 feet long beams of wood or concrete that reach through the 'bog' surface until it reaches a stable layer of sand.

See https://youtu.be/5GEGWP95HFw?t=2m0s for an example of how those stilts are placed. Note that until 2:30 it's basically just using a big weight. From about 2:40 the machine starts to get serious.

Beyond dikes we've had mills keeping ground water levels steady since at least the 10th century.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check this out for real time data about the Greenland ice mass budget. (Spoiler: Greenland is not melting) https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-shee...

You are right, it's not losing mass through melting. But it is losing mass when iceberg calving is accounted for. "Over the year, it snows more than it melts, but calving of icebergs also adds to the total mass budget of the ice sheet. Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass…

200 Gt = 0.007% of the ice mass of Greenland.

Or 0.5mm sea level increase (from your link).

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#266
post #3

I’ve never understood how the parts of the country most affected by sea level rise have been so vociferously against it being real. When the BP spill happened and they had all the local mayors and politicians crying about the damage to their coast, I couldn’t understand why no one had the cajones to ask them why they cared so much about their coast being damaged now, when they were completely fine with it being gone…

I think there's been a brain drain happening in a lot of red states in recent decades. The educated people who have the ability and will to leave often do, leaving behind an increasingly ignorant population. It's coincidental that this same geographic region will be most affected by sea level rise, although nowhere on earth will be immune to the effects of climate change.

[dead]

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#267
post #159
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we exclude Alaska then about half the coast encompasses Texas through North Carolina. This is also the part of the US coast that is most low lying and will see the greatest encroachment from rising sea levels.

Half of your “red” coastline consists of Florida—the vast majority of the coastal population of which is blue (see any 2016 electoral map).

The red vs. blue dichotomy is the man pulling the wool over your eyes in order to divide and conquer. The smartest thing to do would be to not let him get away with it.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#268

Now, now, let's focus on the positives here: - more pollution from shipping routes through the Arctic circle (and yucky-looking icebergs that tourists don't like) - less beachfront property - more desalinatable water - hotter heat - more revulsive detestable significant others (displaced global unrest) - costs of responding to natural disasters occurring with greater frequency due to elevated ocean temperatures - les…

I've received a number of downvotes for this comment. I think it's misunderstood, and that's my fault: I should have included [sarcasm] around the whole comment [/sarcasm].

I've written about our need to address climate change here in past comments. I think the administration's climate change denials (see: "climate change politifact') and regulatory rollbacks are beyond despicable: they're sabotaging the United States by allowing more toxic chemicals into the environment that we all share, and allowing more sites that must be protected with tax dollars that aren't there because these industries pay far less than benchmarks in terms of effective tax rate. We know that vehicle emissions, mercury, and coal ash are toxic: why would we allow people to violate the rights of others in that way?

A person could voluntarily consume said toxic byproducts and not have violated their own rights or the rights of others, you understand. There's no medical value and low potential for abuse, so we just sit idly by while they're violating the rights of other people by dumping toxic chemicals into the environment that are both poisonous and strongly linked to climate change.

What would help us care about this? A sarcastic list of additional reasons that we should care? No! Miami underwater during tourist season is enough! I've had enough!

So, my mistake here - my downvote-earning mistake - was dropping my generally helpful, hopeful tone for cynicism and sarcasm that wasn't motivating enough.

We need people to regulate pollution in order to prevent further costs of climate change. Water in the streets holds up commerce, travel, hampers national security, and destroys the road.

We must stop rewarding pollution if we want it - and definitely resultant climate change - to stop. What motivates other people to care?

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my experience, anyone under age 40, for sure.

I'm 34, and that's not my experience. >According to a new survey from Discover, millennials are outperforming older generations when it comes to saving for their future. In a national study of 2,205 people, Discover finds that 81 percent of millennials are currently saving in some capacity, compared to 74 percent of Generation Xers and 77 percent of baby boomers. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180110005313/…

How many boomers are actually pulling in wages? Aren't most of them spending their savings precisely on what they saved it for? i.e., retirement?

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dikes don't work in Miami because the ground is too porous.

Not only that, the article is about the fresh water supply and to protect that would need a dike around most of south Florida (and all the interior rivers if that were possible given the limestone) and part of the Everglades.

Or build desalination plants and stop draining the natural reserves of fresh water. Probably a lot cheaper. The point of the dikes would be to prevent flooding; not protecting fresh water supplies.
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