Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First • Hacker News Board

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#151

Post by forapurpose » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:24 PM UTC

fabricexpert wrote: post #80

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

Very many HN discussions begin with a comment criticizing the article, almost always with some easy Internet-style cynicism, hyperbole, anger, etc. It diminishes the quality of HN for me; it contributes little or nothing to my understanding.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#152

Post by nabla9 » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:24 PM UTC

siglesias wrote: post #81

dv_dt wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets are great for short term simple extrapolative prediction. At long term and/or non-continuous prediction they seem to have had significant failures.

Citation? There seem to be cases in high technology where the market is very patient for long term returns. Case in point: AMZN trades at a 320 P/E because the market (thus far correctly) can’t see a plausible scenario in which it cedes any e-commerce or AWS share. Maybe this is optimism bias writ large? Another possibility is that even if there is robust demand despite certain destruction, these houses are really wo…

> very patient for long term returns.

High P/E in the case of AMZN is not measure of long term. It's measure fo fast expected growth, low interest rates, shadow margins, and general short therm overconfidence.

It took 10 years for AMZN stock to recover from the peak of 1999 crash. There was nothing wrong with the company, markets just didn't want to wait.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#153

Post by hanbura » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:24 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #53

ryandrake wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should we also tax people living in earthquake-prone and tornado-prone areas? How about blizzard-prone areas? Keep going with this and we will run out of places (in the USA) where it’s ok to live. Also, as someone who lived in south Florida, flood insurance is a joke and unavailable near the coast anyway. Nobody expects it to pay out enough in a major catastrophe, including hurricanes and flooding.

Some risks are not insurable since they're guaranteed to happen. That's why no private insurance company will offer flood insurance, but since these owners of capital have enough political clout, they are able to secure a taxpayer funded bailout fund (nation flood insurance program).

I am guaranteed to die at some point. Yet (at least in Germany) I can go to a private insurance company, agree to pay a few euros each month and in return they pay out 10000€ when I die to cover my funeral, no questions about cause of death asked. It's an insurance that is guaranteed to pay out, but it still insures against uncertainty because I don't know when I will die.

Flood insurance is fundamentally the same, the payouts are just not well spread, requiring a large geographically diverse insurance company.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#154

Post by lakechfoma » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:25 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #134

fabricexpert wrote: post #80

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

I am not sure it is reasonable for every article about the effects of climate change to start with the evidence that climate change is real. If you come to this article from the angle of "climate change is a myth", a single article from Bloomberg was never going to be the turning point in your belief anyway.

Probably not but I think GPs point is that if the rhetoric of the article was different and better data included then stuff like this would be harder to tear up and dismiss. This happens on both sides on all issues.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#155

Post by adrianN » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:26 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #5

ben509 wrote: post #2

Part of the problem here is exacerbated by all the flood insurance that effectively subsidizes building in flood plains. In addition to long term measures to mitigate climate change, we should have a tax on areas that are threatened by flooding and water levels rising so that we can reduce the immediate issues by incentivizing people to move away from them.

Should we also tax people living in earthquake-prone and tornado-prone areas? How about blizzard-prone areas? Keep going with this and we will run out of places (in the USA) where it’s ok to live. Also, as someone who lived in south Florida, flood insurance is a joke and unavailable near the coast anyway. Nobody expects it to pay out enough in a major catastrophe, including hurricanes and flooding.

Strict building codes increase the cost of buildings but make them safe in case of earthquakes. You can see that as a form of tax for living in an earthquake-prone area.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#156

Post by njarboe » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:26 PM UTC

simonbarker87 wrote: post #127

bilbo0s wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I remember when Katrina flooded New Orleans, lots of people were asking why rebuild the city when it almost certainly will flood like that again. And the answer was a simple, do you know how much it would cost to relocate everyone? I was working briefly with Halliburton during the Rita-Katrina time period. I think it might behoove you to take a more holistic look at this issue. I'll try to be visual in my explanatio…

> but the nutritional intake of children in Sub-Saharan Africa would be materially affected. Sorry for the dumb question but I don’t get the link between New Orleans and African children? I’m in the UK, so may be missing some common US knowledge?

Looks like New Orleans area ports export about 1/3 of the US agricultural products, which is 8 times more than any other US port[1]. Shipping down river is by far the cheapest way to move bulk products like grain and New Orleans is where the Mississippi meets the ocean.

[1]https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Port%20Pr...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#157

Post by zackmorris » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:27 PM UTC

I'm getting the feeling lately that the freedom in speech and action that is the foundation of the United States doesn't mean freedom from consequences.

Florida has a rather right leaning/libertarian persuasion, which as the article pointed out, allowed the Miami Drum Services Inc. superfund site and Lake Belt limestone mine to cause contamination of drinking water as recently as 1997.

I'm from Idaho and am well aware of the environmental impacts from superfund sites and mining. The corporations go in and make their millions, then taxpayers are on the hook for the cleanup. Now we can't even fish many rivers and lakes here because mine tailings have contaminated the water with mercury (from gold mining) and other nastiness.

Due to a long history of this short term thinking where profits are privatized and externalities are socialized, Miami is going to have to come to terms with losing its drinking water and either pipe it in from far away or move to desalinization. It's going to be expensive and unfortunate, but I wonder if it will be enough for people to shift their politics. Judging by the political stalemate in my state, I'm guessing not.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#158

Post by forapurpose » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:29 PM UTC

downrightmike wrote: post #149

scottlamb wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. If the 2007 financial crisis taught me anything, it's that we can't rely on the banks to make sound financial decisions, particularly regarding mortgages. Even more so now that the government bailed them out at taxpayer expense. They know that will happen again when needed. They have a safety net so they can gambl…

The people who took out most of the mortgages, were good sound borrowers with good credit scores and were often buying a second or more house to flip. Not just the banks, the borrowers are made of humans that make bad choices and liked to gamble. https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housi...

What does that tell us about banks loans as a signal of investment security?

> Not just the banks, the borrowers

I don't think the banks need defending, and I don't think we can compare the financial decisions made by professionals who are legal and moral custodians of the financial system with ordinary people. It would be like comparing the medical decisions of hospitals and ordinary people - 'it's not just the hospitals that offered this treatment as a cure, it's the patients who participated in it.' or 'It's not just the developers who made this highly insecure, malware-ridden software, it's the users who downloaded it.'

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#159

Post by ctlby » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:29 PM UTC

erentz wrote: post #124

ctlby wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your premise is incorrect. The parts of the country most affected are the coasts--and they are blue.

If we exclude Alaska then about half the coast encompasses Texas through North Carolina. This is also the part of the US coast that is most low lying and will see the greatest encroachment from rising sea levels.

Half of your “red” coastline consists of Florida—the vast majority of the coastal population of which is blue (see any 2016 electoral map).

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#160

Post by throwaway5752 » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:29 PM UTC

igravious wrote: post #130

beat wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. It's saying that Miami's water supply is at risk, partly due to rising sea levels, partly due to human activity damaging the aquifer (limestone mining, toxic waste). Moreover, six feet of sea level rise isn't going to happen instantaneously. It will take decades. Property will slowly be lost, but people will just move inland (or move away). And a key question is…

> The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. I beg to differ, it's the first sentence of the title of the article: “Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. […]” Then there's, “Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates that six feet of sea-level rise would put a…

Miami lies on an outcropping of rock that is very close to sea level. On the inland side of that ridge is their aquifer. In a 6' scenario, most developed ground near Miami will literally be underwater, and the aquifer will be no longer be viable. Underwater isn't that melodramatic.

Considering that almost all projections have undershot global warming and sea level rise, and recent empirical observations have supported accelerating increases, we should be looking at worse that RCP8.5 scenarios which is already a full meter by 2080-2100.

Sea level rises by 2100 that are only 1"/.3m all rely on huge decreases in CO2 emission and global policy responses, which is unlikely based on existing evidence.

edit: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 (saline intrusion in Biscayne aquifer, access via referrer https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warmin... and free access)

edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_P... (nomenclature for future climate scenarios)

edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report (assessments and risks under future climate scenarios)

edit: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 (evidence that projections are below current observed rates and overly conservative, even in some worst cases)