Facebook is not worth $33 billion • Hacker News Board

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#261

Post by messel » Sat, Sep 25, 2010, 5:31 PM UTC

edw519 wrote: post #33

dhh wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Thanks for the word correction, updated. 2. Publicly traded companies have instant liquidity on many more shares, which makes using "last share sold" an meaningful metric. 3. When only 3% of the money a company is supposedly worth has been moved around, it's a poor indicator of what the other 97% would go for. 4. They haven't figured out how to make much profit yet. And it's still questionable whether they will. M…

It's weird, it's like in Chicago they don't have multiplication or something. Oh, and New York smells. (take that!) Two of my heroes dragging discourse on hacker news into the toilet. What's the world coming to?

The fact that they responded to your jest in sincerity gives hope to the "little guy"

HackerNews: battlebots for geeks who can't build an ashtray without a makerbot

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#262

Post by hofo » Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 1:23 PM UTC

jrep wrote: post #216

grandalf wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are all valid points, but they are logically equivalent to saying "I don't understand why anyone pays $12 for a Ke$ha album". You may not agree on the worth of the album or of the shares, and nobody is forcing you to buy either one. That some people do consider it a good price is enough to result in a market price for both, on the basis of which many decisions are made.

Well, no, it's like saying "I don't understand why anyone pays $12,000 for a Ke$ha album." If the price was broadly reasonable, there would be no argument. But if the price gets outlandish, then someone needs to call B.S. And yes, this happens now and then for ordinary, exchange-traded companies. Usually, it results in the exchange suspending trading for the company for a bit. Sometimes, it requires someone to call B…

Actually I don't understand why anyone buys a Ke$ha album at any price...

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#263

Post by emit_time_n3rgy » Tue, Sep 28, 2010, 5:58 AM UTC

code_duck wrote: post #234

far33d wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook is one of the few companies in the world with unbounded potential. It's a cultural phenomenon that has changed the way people use the internet and, more importantly, has changed the way people interact with their real friends. Very few companies change culture and daily interaction like this. Is it worth $33b today? Not sure. Could it be worth $200b someday? Could Facebook be bigger than Microsoft? Bigger th…

I've heard this same thing about AOL, MySpace, etc. and really, who knows. People who have come to the internet and use nothing but Facebook will discover there are actually other sites out there, or they may get tired of Mafia Wars spam. Someone could create something more innovative. I think Facebook will continue to become more valuable, but they're not going to take over the entire world.

I'm interested to see what becomes of Diaspora* http://joindiaspora.com

They're featured in an article entitled "Defacebook" http://nymag.com/news/features/establishments/68512/?mid=fac...

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#264

Post by dantheman » Tue, Sep 28, 2010, 8:00 PM UTC

jbarham wrote: post #99

dhh wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2. The bond and equity markets are based on sound regulation, transparency, and quarterly statements. Facebook has none of those things when it operates in the dark of the secondary markets. 3. Again, these premiums are based on outstanding shares traded under the transparency of the public stock market. See Secondary Suckers for a nice take on the perils of the secondary market: http://www.homethinking.com/brontemed…

> The bond and equity markets are based on sound regulation, transparency... Presumably subprime mortgage backed securities are the exception that proves the rule...

Exception that proves the rule means that since their is an exception a rule must exist.

For instance - Tonight we got an exception and are allowed to stay out till 11pm, would imply that there exists a rule that forbids them staying out that late. Hence the exception proves the rule.

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#265

Post by HowieSPM » Thu, Sep 30, 2010, 3:06 AM UTC

spolsky wrote: post #5

I hate to leap in with what seems like an ad-hominem attack on the 37 signals, but their utter and complete misunderstanding of all the basics of business is starting to grate on me, and I'm wondering if it has anything to do with Chicago. Is the problem that they're sitting there in a city without any other Internet industry, stewing in their own witty ideas, listening only to the adoring comments they get from the…

Of course Facebook is not worth $33bil. Fact: The Facebook engagement numbers for users suck. The data is inflated. That all is fact BUT forget that. Apple shares cost $6 per dollar of revenue. At the same valuation Facebook is worth $9bil. Would you really pay $25 per dollar of Facebook revenue knowing in 2-3 years they could be the next Myspace? They sell nothing. They are actually the Seinfeld of Networks. No loyalty. Nothing preventing anyone from jumping ship. If you think I am wrong people invested way more in their Myspace experience...photos, blogs, video, tricked out pages etc. And then just left. Gone. Bye. See ya.

Remember a sucker is born every min and Elevation Partners has been a sucker over and over in many investments. Would you spend $6 per dollar of Apple revenue or $25 for a dollar of Facebook? Case closed.

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#266

Post by pitbear » Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 5:54 AM UTC

spolsky wrote: post #5

I hate to leap in with what seems like an ad-hominem attack on the 37 signals, but their utter and complete misunderstanding of all the basics of business is starting to grate on me, and I'm wondering if it has anything to do with Chicago. Is the problem that they're sitting there in a city without any other Internet industry, stewing in their own witty ideas, listening only to the adoring comments they get from the…

y so serious?

-The last executed price times shares outstanding is market cap. Valuation is dcf or guideline; there's a big difference between capitalization and valuation.

-Sharespost can not be considered liquid as all of its securities are governed purely by regulation D and are by definition on hard to borrow

-Facebook will not continue its current exponential rate of revenue growth for the standard 5 year assumption DCF

(jk, but maybe not) Its most avid core user base will graduate with their faggy liberal arts degrees, find out they can't earn for shit, advertising revenues will peak and decline, at which point Facebook will file a timely SEC S-1, followed by a record oversubscribed ipo mostly bought by parent(sponsors) of said faggy liberal arts graduates, then get basket shorted down to 50% of offering price. IB, instl. trading desks, and VC will already have gotten rich long before this; everyone else loses. Same deal with carbon/ECX emissions futures.

-NY owns Chicago; Chicago is the guy on the merc floor shouting hundreds of open outcry bids while one trading desk at 200 west st. takes every bet against him using one single macro on Rediplus. (jk, respect to all veteran floor traders)

-I'm sure everyone will decide their bets based on their own risk-reward/due diligence anyways. Nothing we say to each other will have a huge effect; in the end, the bids and offers we provide will do all the talking for us. That's why the market exists so let the games begin.