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'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#251

Post by ImPostingOnHN »

palmotea wrote: post #221
ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can I, an ordinary person, track it from Coinbase (KYC) to whatever wallet the prediction market is using to accept payment (or vice versa)." in order to link a real identity to a prediction market identity? I don't have access to that. The government which has access to that is the very government making money doing this, so would not investigate itself. If your question was purely technical, the answer is maybe…

> How can I, an ordinary person, track it from Coinbase (KYC) to whatever wallet the prediction market is using to accept payment (or vice versa)." in order to link a real identity to a prediction market identity? KYC data is certainly confidential. > The government which has access to that is the very government making money doing this, so would not investigate itself. I'm not obsessed with the Trump administration,…

Again, if your question was purely technical, the answer is "maybe", depending on the exchange flow. e.g. Maybe it was exchanged through Monero along the way or something, then the answer might be closer to "no".

If your question was asking about a practical, realistic possibility of this being done, then your weird fixation on the trump administration aside, the answer is "no".

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#252

Post by IcyWindows »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #249
IcyWindows wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's now that poorer, less powerful, were caught. I'm sure it's been caught before, but buried.

Is that supposed to be better or worse? If it gets buried you don't even know that the data has been manipulated when using it for other purposes. Also, the oil and tobacco companies have certainly been caught manipulating scientific results on multiple occasions.

I think it's a good thing that more people are aware that it is a possibility. It was a possibility before, but people would just say "we don't have evidence this has ever occurred"

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#253

Post by IcyWindows »

dlenski wrote: post #235
IcyWindows wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Example, some countries have laws about operating factories or construction sites in when the outside temperature is too high. So they have artificial underreported those for decades.

Yeah, I'm aware of warehouses that underreport their interior temperatures so that they don't have to give their employees adequate ventilation and breaks. Amazon in particular. It's really bad, but it's not quite the same society-pervading incentive for data manipulation.

It happens at the country and/or city level. I figure that counts as a society.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#254

Post by edge_trader_41 »

qurren wrote: post #170
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I've been quite successful trading weather prediction markets. The prediction markets were never about predicting outcomes. If that's the level you are playing on, you're playing at the lowest possible level, and probably won't win. The markets are now about properly modelling other peoples' manipulation of prediction. That's how Wall Street works as well. Companies can beat earnings and their stocks crash immediatel…

[dead]

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#255

Post by johnleslie_pm »

This is a textbook oracle manipulation problem, and it's one that prediction market designers have been worried about since the early Augur days. The fundamental issue is that when market resolution depends on a single data source (one weather sensor), the cost of manipulating that oracle can be far less than the payout from the market position. A hairdryer costs $20; the market position could be worth thousands.

The interesting design question is how platforms should handle resolution disputes like this. Polymarket uses UMA's optimistic oracle, which allows anyone to challenge a resolution within a dispute window. But that only works when someone is incentivized to challenge. If the manipulator holds both sides of the market at the right ratio, they can profit even if the resolution is later corrected. Serious prediction markets will eventually need to adopt multi-source oracle designs the way DeFi lending protocols moved to Chainlink-style aggregated price feeds after the flash loan attacks of 2020.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#257

Post by sva_ »

dlenski wrote: post #22

> On April 15, one trader made $21,000 (£15,600) betting that the maximum temperature would not be 18 degrees, data from Polymarket show. A temperature of 18C was seen as a 99.6pc probability before the temperature spiked later in the day. I believe that these are the specific Polymarket bets in question: April 6 ( https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on... ): this appears to have been something…

The sensor readings do look suspicious:

april 6 https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/mauregard/LFPG...

april 15 even more so: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/mauregard/LFPG...

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#258

Post by fahhhh »

qurren wrote: post #170
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I've been quite successful trading weather prediction markets. The prediction markets were never about predicting outcomes. If that's the level you are playing on, you're playing at the lowest possible level, and probably won't win. The markets are now about properly modelling other peoples' manipulation of prediction. That's how Wall Street works as well. Companies can beat earnings and their stocks crash immediatel…

[flagged]

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#259

Post by fahhhh »

qurren wrote: post #170
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I've been quite successful trading weather prediction markets. The prediction markets were never about predicting outcomes. If that's the level you are playing on, you're playing at the lowest possible level, and probably won't win. The markets are now about properly modelling other peoples' manipulation of prediction. That's how Wall Street works as well. Companies can beat earnings and their stocks crash immediatel…

[flagged]

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#260

Post by GBeastMode »

WarmWash wrote: post #12
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

Casinos are purpose built to make you lose. People still show up compulsively everyday.

It’s not really a bug - it’s a feature. Casino software is designed from the ground up to keep players engaged for as long as possible, which is where all those retention and engagement mechanics come from. It’s also important to understand that the “house edge” isn’t about luck - it’s pure math built into the algorithms (RTP, volatility, etc.). At the same time, a lot depends on the operator. Different providers offer different levels of flexibility, and the casino owner ultimately decides what kind of conditions to offer players. Here’s a solid breakdown on why platform flexibility matters and how it’s used in practice: https://thetradable.com/press-releases/why-flexibility-and-s...
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