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'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#21

Post by bloppe »

thimabi wrote: post #10
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

Yep, you can bet on anything. Mike Selig is in charge of regulating it, and he's pretty zealous about suing any state regulators trying to exercise their right to regulate gambling. I think the days of the wild west are clearly numbered, but one guy with a burning passion and a big agenda (and the backing of Don Jr) can get a lot done in the meantime

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#22

Post by dlenski »

> On April 15, one trader made $21,000 (£15,600) betting that the maximum temperature would not be 18 degrees, data from Polymarket show. A temperature of 18C was seen as a 99.6pc probability before the temperature spiked later in the day.

I believe that these are the specific Polymarket bets in question:

April 6 (https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on...): this appears to have been something of a "test run", since the odds weren't particularly lopsided until it suddenly spiked in the evening local time.

April 15 (https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on...): the odds were quite lopsided in favor of 18°C, until suddenly reversing in the evening. This is presumably where the fraudsters made all their money.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#23

Post by logicchains »

ctime wrote: post #7

Between this and crypto cryptocurrencies (which obviously can be used to make bets) I don’t know which is more destructive to society

How is it even remotely as destructive as casinos, where the odds are always against you? From a probability perspective Polymarket is much more fair, as you actually have positive expected value if you have an information advantage.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#24

Post by gowld »

WarmWash wrote: post #12
guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

Casinos are purpose built to make you lose. People still show up compulsively everyday.

Casinos have many games with exact payout odds posted. Polymarket does not.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#29

Post by gowld »

jbrowning wrote: post #11

> While it is unclear how the temperature might have been manipulated, one possibility shared on weather forums was that a battery-powered hairdryer could have been used, according to Le Monde newspaper. Clickbait headline FWIW.

Flag the submission.

Telegaph is a disreputable tabloid. There are better sources.

https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:1c00dcc26094b...

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