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2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

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Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#251

Post by ErrantX »

cletus wrote: post #159
Bud wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard for me to even enumerate how many ways this is wrong. But I'll try. Batteries are still too heavy Changing. Rapidly. take too long to charge Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. (batteries) are too expensive Sorry to be a broken record, but this too is improving rapidly. require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of…

> Changing. Rapidly. That doesn't negate my point. > And perhaps you forgot, but building tens of thousands of gas stations all over the place wasn't easy You're not the only one to bring this up and it confuses me why. The gas infrastructure has already been built . It's a sunk cost. EV infrastructure most certainly is not. > Tesla's range is already over 250 miles; this is getting very close to that of many gas guz…

> You're not the only one to bring this up and it confuses me why. The gas infrastructure has already been built. It's a sunk cost. EV infrastructure most certainly is not.

Back in the day countries had a huge infrastructure for horse-based transport (stables, travellers inns, places to buy food). That was also a sunk cost.

Just a thought.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#252

Post by dancesdrunk »

henrikschroder wrote: post #249
dancesdrunk wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the statement that electric cars are not the future, but for a slightly different set of reasons. My MSc thesis / project was studying future engines and fuels - long story short: - IC engines have efficiencies of anywhere from 70% to 5%; depending on a huge range of factors and types (rotax at 3000rpm on diesel vs v12 carb at 8000rpm on 98-ron, outside temp and pressure etc). - Over 100 years of researc…

A plastic bucket of gas contains more hydrogen than a bucket of liquid hydrogen, and if you put a lid on it the gas will happily stay in the bucket, whereas for the hydrogen you need a pressurized corrosive-resistant container. Hydrogen is not the future, because it's incredibly difficult to handle, we don't have the infrastructure for it (unlike gas and electricity), and the energy density of hydrogen is really bad…

Actually - Hydrogen storage isn't that much of a step above the precautions already needed for LPG; which is now incredibly popular in developing countries. Shanghai, if I remember correctly, made it illegal in 2000 or 2001 to sell petrol scooters in the city - they all run on LPG.

Regarding energy density - definitely agree, my own research showed me a 2 fold increase in consumption compared to LPG, which in turn increases consumption by 15% over regular petrol (note that these were estimates based on my data).

The lab had a "Hydrogen maker" - obviously it ran off electricity and in about 6 hours provided roughly 500 milliliters of compressed hydrogen (kept at 350 bar if I remember correctly) literally from air.

My concept was to be able to have a clean water tank (pure H2O) and electrolysis providing the Hydrogen to run the engine, and continue on in a closed loop; literally a car running on water. Obviously energy transfer, efficiencies etc make this almost impossible - but one can dream.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#253

Post by tripzilch »

panacea wrote: post #217
lobster_johnson wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I'm all for EVs and would happily change if I could afford to, this strikes me as off: > ... if I want to take a long road trip, there has to be a big stopover in the middle, which makes trips much longer. The Model S solves that. The Model S has a range of about 400 km (250 miles). For long highway-type trips, that's probably about 4 hours of driving. Which is not much. It won't get you from Köln to Berlin or…

Köln to Berlin and Paris to Lyon are train journeys, not car trips.

Indeed. Much quicker, more comfortable and energy-efficient.

Why'd you wanna go there at anything less than 250km/h (160mph)? ;-)

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#254

Post by confluence »

abhimishra wrote: post #180
confluence wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh for the love of all that is Science! > According to former U.S. Department of Energy official Joseph Romm, "A hydrogen car is one of the least efficient, most expensive ways to reduce greenhouse gases." Asked when hydrogen cars will be broadly available, Romm replied: "Not in our lifetime, and very possibly never." The Los Angeles Times wrote, in February 2009, "Hydrogen fuel-cell technology won't work in cars. ..…

I'm glad you are skilled at being snarky and rude, but it has no place here on Hacker News (or really anywhere). Now onto your post: Writing off something as DOA because of current technologies is not a good argument at all. People made similar arguments about electric cars just a few years back (as shown in 'Who Killed the Electric Car'). A long time ago, no one ever thought computing would be cheap enough to be ins…

Cars in production for immediate sale/reservation to the mass market:

> Nissan Leaf: Thousands.

> Mitsubishi i-MiEV: Thousands.

> Toyota RAV 4 EV: Thousands in production.

> Volt: Thousands.

> Model S: 20,000 in production.

> Toyota Prius: Millions.

> Electric scooters: Hundreds of millions.

> Hydro/Fuel Cells: A big, fat - wait for it - 0.

Sources:

-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hybrid_vehicles

-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_modern_production_plug-...

-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_production_battery_elec...

-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fuel_cell_vehicles

I call that complete and utter domination.

And to be clear, I'm not being rude, I'm merely stating the facts.

I would do the same if you were racist or sexist - so don't feel too special. Truth is not snark unless it disagrees with your view of the world - it's merely fact vs. fiction.

I don't deal in fiction - facts alone are wanted in life.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#255

Post by tripzilch »

freehunter wrote: post #225
matthewaustin wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congratulations - you are the 1% who this model fails for. The rest of us will be just fine, since 99% of us don't travel more than 250 miles a day. And for the couple times a year we need to take road trips, we can rent a luxury sedan with the money we've saved on fuel costs.

>And for the couple times a year we need to take road trips, we can rent a luxury sedan with the money we've saved on fuel costs. False. See another discussion I'm involved in. To give you the gist: I drive a 14 year old gas guzzling truck. Let's say it broke down and I wanted to save money, so I bought an electric car. Here's the breakdown in costs- Buying another 14 year old gas guzzling Toyota truck: $19,000 over…

> Even comparing it to the truck, it would take 14 years to save enough on fuel to pay off that $20,000 you could have saved by buying the Cube or the Micra.

So, given that gas prices are much more expensive in Europe (about $8.50/gallon, here in NL right now), as well as not considering 250 miles an unexceptional car distance, we might break even a lot sooner? :) :)

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#256

Post by mseebach »

moconnor wrote: post #242
freehunter wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And for the couple times a year we need to take road trips, we can rent a luxury sedan with the money we've saved on fuel costs. False. See another discussion I'm involved in. To give you the gist: I drive a 14 year old gas guzzling truck. Let's say it broke down and I wanted to save money, so I bought an electric car. Here's the breakdown in costs- Buying another 14 year old gas guzzling Toyota truck: $19,000 over…

Although it might not invalidate your argument, you have ignored the residual value of having a 5-year old Model S / Nissan Leaf. We don't know what that will be, yet, but it will probably be higher than the residual value of a 14 year old gas guzzling Toyota truck.

If you're doing prudent financial planning, you have to assume close to zero. The technology is moving very, very quickly, and there's no telling what it will look like in five years and if your present-day car can be retro-fitted to fit into it.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#257

Post by mncolinlee »

cletus wrote: post #79

The Tesla Model S is a great-looking car but, unlike some, I still don't see electric cars as being the future. Batteries are still too heavy, take too long to charge, are too expensive and require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of scarcity. Of course, there can be and no doubt will be technological innovation in this space but (IMHO) the future…

How the heck did this ignorant post reach the top? It's as if YC readers are tied to the horse and buggy whip and refuse to do any actual reading about the state of electric cars today. I personally kicked gas over six months ago and haven't looked back.

The 600lb battery on my 2012 Nissan Leaf will weigh 350lbs and store 25% more energy in the 2013 Leaf using the new lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide cathode (NMC) battery chemistry. Not only does it weigh less than most automotive engines, but it also costs much less when the total cost of ownership is considered, including replacement at eight years. They already ARE an order of magnitude better than the car I bought and I'm not dissatisfied with my car today.

http://insideevs.com/nissan-ceo-carlos-ghosn-second-generati...

For the record, I cannot imagine a case where the 280 mile range of the Model S would not be enough. Your car does not need to go 1000 miles without stopping for awhile. If it does, catch a flight or rent a car. As I pointed out, I could afford a limo for road trips for the amount I'm saving on gas.

Also, I heard the major disaster and blackout excuse even before the hurricane happened. The problem everyone fails to consider is that it takes electricity to pump gasoline. The pumps are not siphons and they do not continue to operate without power. Electricity infrastructure is a superset of gasoline infrastructure.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#258

Post by mncolinlee »

brc wrote: post #88
mncolinlee wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would guess a mix of the positive jobs report and short covering from margin calls is at fault. Right-leaning investors have seemed to want the company to fail for months, but Tesla is looking resilient with their good backlog and a strong economy. They're paying back their DOE loan early.

>Right-leaning investors have seemed to want the company to fail for months, but Tesla is looking resilient with their good backlog and a strong economy. They're paying back their DOE loan early. Seriously? You think people are prepared to lose money to make a political point?

Erik answered right. It's not to make a political point. It's their entire worldview. The problem is just insular thinking within that political movement that electric cars are toys that are doomed to fail. Also, A123 and Ener1 battery makers failed, so they refuse to see that some companies are succeeding. The trouble is that they "eat their own dog food."

Even Mitt Romney claims to believe it, but Texas Governor Rick Perry drives a Volt. When I mention that Volts are outselling the original Prius by over 2-to-1, conservatives argue that it's purely government buyers who are forced to buy them by President Obama.

Try explaining to Romney backers that the backlog on the Tesla Model S is in the billions and that their candidate is wrong about the company.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#259

Post by mncolinlee »

freehunter wrote: post #225
matthewaustin wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congratulations - you are the 1% who this model fails for. The rest of us will be just fine, since 99% of us don't travel more than 250 miles a day. And for the couple times a year we need to take road trips, we can rent a luxury sedan with the money we've saved on fuel costs.

>And for the couple times a year we need to take road trips, we can rent a luxury sedan with the money we've saved on fuel costs. False. See another discussion I'm involved in. To give you the gist: I drive a 14 year old gas guzzling truck. Let's say it broke down and I wanted to save money, so I bought an electric car. Here's the breakdown in costs- Buying another 14 year old gas guzzling Toyota truck: $19,000 over…

That was REALLY lazy math and it shows. Run the numbers for real or don't even try. I'll even give you an accurate spreadsheet.

http://www1.extension.umn.edu/environment/energy/vehicle/

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#260

Post by mncolinlee »

ryanhuff wrote: post #211
matthewaustin wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congratulations - you are the 1% who this model fails for. The rest of us will be just fine, since 99% of us don't travel more than 250 miles a day. And for the couple times a year we need to take road trips, we can rent a luxury sedan with the money we've saved on fuel costs.

Isn't the 250 miles a max range, assuming ideal driving conditions? Also, as the car ages, will the battery range erode significantly? If its similar to consumer rechargeable battery technology, should we expect that the 250 mile range will be closer to 150 miles with "typical" driving behavior and after the car has been driven for 50K miles?

It entirely depends upon the chemistry of the automotive lithium battery, which typically use different catalysts than laptop batteries. For Lithium Manganese Oxide batteries, the prediction is 70% after eight years. That would be 175 miles range at 120,000 miles driving. There are new and better chemistries coming out like lithium NMC arriving this year that store 75% more energy per lb at a similar price. http://insideevs.com/nissan-ceo-carlos-ghosn-second-generati...
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