2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S • Hacker News Board

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#151

Post by devcpp » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:28 PM UTC

pkulak wrote: post #145

cletus wrote: post #79

The Tesla Model S is a great-looking car but, unlike some, I still don't see electric cars as being the future. Batteries are still too heavy, take too long to charge, are too expensive and require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of scarcity. Of course, there can be and no doubt will be technological innovation in this space but (IMHO) the future…

Imagine if we were the other way around. Everyone was driving electric cars and someone was trying to get us on gas. I charge my car every night. You're telling me I now have to drive to a "gas station" every time I need to recharge? And we need to ship gas all over the country now? And gas costs _how_ much!? And then I also have to bring it into the shop every few months to "change the oil"? And look at the thousand…

Not really the same. You can take a dozen jerrycan of gas that will last you for a long time, and that does for the same price as the gas you'll buy at the station, which is precisely what people did before you could find gas stations every few miles.

Not so for electricity: charging and taking 10 batteries with you on a trip is much more of a hassle and quite expensive. Fuel is really the deal-breaker for the buyers who won't go with an electric car until "fuel" is available everywhere. The other points are moot until this issue is solved.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#152

Post by clauretano » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:34 PM UTC

haberman wrote: post #142

mibbitier wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Burning coal to make electricity, then transmitting that electricity all over the country, wasting some of it along the way... Then using that to charge a battery, then using that to power a motor. I'm not sure it sounds particularly efficient unless you completely ignore all the work that goes into making the electricity :/

Here in Seattle, we don't burn coal. Ok I lied, 0.52% of our energy does actually come from coal. But 96% of it is hydro and wind: http://www.seattle.gov/light/fuelmix/

That's a fuel mix to be very proud of. Unfortunately even here, most people in the metro area live outside Seattle city limits, and right across Lake Washington in the burbs the fuel mix is 32% coal, 16% natural gas http://pse.com/aboutpse/EnergySupply/Pages/Electric-Supply.a...

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#153

Post by jblow » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:35 PM UTC

tsotha wrote: post #132

jblow wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those of us who own electric cars know that electric cars have already won. They are just too good compared to regular somewhat-junky gasoline cars. The benefits are too numerous to list. The only problem that I have with my Roadster is that if I want to take a long road trip, there has to be a big stopover in the middle, which makes trips much longer. The Model S solves that. Therefore, EVs have won. They are here n…

Uh huh. How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so?

The Roadster is definitely expensive, but now the Model S, just a few years later, is 1/2 to 2/3 the price, and is a superior car. Thus, the price is declining rapidly, and this is obvious to anyone who cares to look at actual facts.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#154

Post by pkulak » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:36 PM UTC

devcpp wrote: post #151

pkulak wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if we were the other way around. Everyone was driving electric cars and someone was trying to get us on gas. I charge my car every night. You're telling me I now have to drive to a "gas station" every time I need to recharge? And we need to ship gas all over the country now? And gas costs _how_ much!? And then I also have to bring it into the shop every few months to "change the oil"? And look at the thousand…

Not really the same. You can take a dozen jerrycan of gas that will last you for a long time, and that does for the same price as the gas you'll buy at the station, which is precisely what people did before you could find gas stations every few miles. Not so for electricity: charging and taking 10 batteries with you on a trip is much more of a hassle and quite expensive. Fuel is really the deal-breaker for the buyers…

My point is that you can find these terrible deal-breakers with every transition. It's not enough to just point them out.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#155

Post by confluence » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:42 PM UTC

pirateking wrote: post #148

confluence wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have literally no idea what you are talking about but that's OK because technology doesn't care about what you think - it just happens (cf. computer adoption, robotic automation, AI automation, cars, trains, trucks, looms, engines, planes, ships). ICE vehicles are relatively complex and not actually cheap going forwards. We're past peak oil and emissions are now being priced (CO2 pollution is no longer free). Tha…

I agree with your post and general outlook on electric vehicles - they are definitely the future. However, I do not agree with Mr. Buffett's statement - if it were the case, no one would ever make a single statement.

> no one would ever make a single statement

Maybe that would be a good thing. Most people don't know jack about economics, physics, finance, engineering, artificial intelligence, the future, technology or pretty much anything outside of their day to day job.

You'll notice that whenever someone like that does open their mouth in your field without knowing jack about it - you immediately understand that he has no idea what he is talking about.

The real problem comes when he's talking about an industry you don't know - because for all intents and purposes you won't know either.

> You can bullshit all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot bullshit all the people all the time.

This is how MBAs (or Master Bullshit Artists) can exist. If you don't know much about tech, he can say pretty much whatever he wants and you will have no idea as to whether he is telling the truth unless you yourself have knowledge of the relevant area.

> Those who know do not speak; those who speak do not know.

-- Tao Te Ching

Remember that the next time you are listening to a discussion of a complex field - where none of the participants have degrees, industry experience or in depth on the ground knowledge of said fields. Bullshit is everywhere.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#156

Post by clauretano » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:46 PM UTC

chc wrote: post #94

jblow wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those of us who own electric cars know that electric cars have already won. They are just too good compared to regular somewhat-junky gasoline cars. The benefits are too numerous to list. The only problem that I have with my Roadster is that if I want to take a long road trip, there has to be a big stopover in the middle, which makes trips much longer. The Model S solves that. Therefore, EVs have won. They are here n…

Aren't EVs totally unusable if you live in an apartment? That was my impression when I looked into them. Like, how would I charge a car in my parking stall?

New apartment buildings under construction that want to game the LEED system are always looking for ways to get points. Adding a charging station or two to their underground parking garage is an easy way. The trouble is, investing in an electric car you're going to keep for 4-5 years starts making less sense when it means you might be locked into your apartment for just as long.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#157

Post by fr0sty » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:50 PM UTC

jblow wrote: post #64

CamperBob2 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an electric car owner, I haven't found a need for swapping batteries. Consider this: if a refueling station offered battery swapping they would also need to exhaustively test your batteries to determine that they were not abused and to determine how much credit to offer for their current capacity. How does that save much time from just using a quick-charge station? Because the batteries wouldn't have to be tested…

Forgot to mention that I am an electric car owner as well (Roadster). I don't really like the idea of battery swapping. It seems like a big hassle. The current Supercharger seems totally fine. I guess it remains to be seen how well it works in practice, once a lot of people have the cars, but right now things look really good. One of the most common pieces of anti-EV rhetoric is "the infrastructure doesn't exist". Th…

"You just need some electricity."

If you wave your hand enough anything is trivial. The "some" you are talking about is 250A @ 400V (100kW) which is a trifle more than a typical gas station can readily supply (especially if you want to charge more than one at a time).

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#158

Post by hellgas00 » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:50 PM UTC

devcpp wrote: post #151

pkulak wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if we were the other way around. Everyone was driving electric cars and someone was trying to get us on gas. I charge my car every night. You're telling me I now have to drive to a "gas station" every time I need to recharge? And we need to ship gas all over the country now? And gas costs _how_ much!? And then I also have to bring it into the shop every few months to "change the oil"? And look at the thousand…

Not really the same. You can take a dozen jerrycan of gas that will last you for a long time, and that does for the same price as the gas you'll buy at the station, which is precisely what people did before you could find gas stations every few miles. Not so for electricity: charging and taking 10 batteries with you on a trip is much more of a hassle and quite expensive. Fuel is really the deal-breaker for the buyers…

I believe these problems are already somewhat solved. The Chevy volt uses a hybrid system. Runs off electricity exclusively, with a small gas powered engine to charge the battery pack when need be. The backup engine can perform at its most efficient rate of rotation, and electric motors are so much more efficient than their combustion engine counterparts. As a Mech eng, I would be willing to bet that burning gas in a modern power-plant would be more efficient than using the fuel in a car. So much of the energy is lost in the form of heat, that lost heat could be harnessed. These problems are already addressed; it’s about what you require out of your car that should determine what type of car you need. I don't travel outside of the city. If I do I use public transit (GO tansit, live in Canada). The future will require trade-offs, there is no way that the status quo is sustainable

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#159

Post by cletus » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:53 PM UTC

Bud wrote: post #149

cletus wrote: post #79

The Tesla Model S is a great-looking car but, unlike some, I still don't see electric cars as being the future. Batteries are still too heavy, take too long to charge, are too expensive and require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of scarcity. Of course, there can be and no doubt will be technological innovation in this space but (IMHO) the future…

It's hard for me to even enumerate how many ways this is wrong. But I'll try. Batteries are still too heavy Changing. Rapidly. take too long to charge Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. (batteries) are too expensive Sorry to be a broken record, but this too is improving rapidly. require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of…

> Changing. Rapidly.

That doesn't negate my point.

> And perhaps you forgot, but building tens of thousands of gas stations all over the place wasn't easy

You're not the only one to bring this up and it confuses me why. The gas infrastructure has already been built. It's a sunk cost. EV infrastructure most certainly is not.

> Tesla's range is already over 250 miles; this is getting very close to that of many gas guzzlers.

For significantly higher capital cost, with (probably) much lower shelf life. And when the "gas guzzler" hits its range, what does it do? Spends a few minutes filling up and does it again (as opposed to recharging for 8 hours).

> Uh, you can transport electricity to people, too. We have power lines for that.

Yes, that was my point. Look at all the people in NJ/NY/CT without power.

> Er, no. Do you know what an order of magnitude IS?

Yes, but we're talking about the battery tech and the batteries are only some portion of the total cost of a vehicle.

> you can recharge at night.

Given a fairly narrow use case, sure.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#160

Post by abhimishra » Thu, Nov 01, 2012, 11:56 PM UTC

jblow wrote: post #91

cletus wrote: post #79

The Tesla Model S is a great-looking car but, unlike some, I still don't see electric cars as being the future. Batteries are still too heavy, take too long to charge, are too expensive and require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of scarcity. Of course, there can be and no doubt will be technological innovation in this space but (IMHO) the future…

Those of us who own electric cars know that electric cars have already won. They are just too good compared to regular somewhat-junky gasoline cars. The benefits are too numerous to list. The only problem that I have with my Roadster is that if I want to take a long road trip, there has to be a big stopover in the middle, which makes trips much longer. The Model S solves that. Therefore, EVs have won. They are here n…

How does the Model S solve the longer trips issue? On a road-trip I might drive 500 miles in a day. The priciest Model S gets 300 miles at 55 miles an hour. And with climate control on that is likely to be less in reality. If this trip were in cold weather (ski trips and such) the range would be SIGNIFICANTLY less.

As a comparison, my gasoline-hybrid can squeeze out over 500 miles on a tank at 55 miles an hour. And I never worry about being 'stranded' as I might with a fully-electric car.

Another issue I have with battery-based solutions is the potential lifespan of the batteries - they are warrantied only for 8-years. A new pack costs ~30k (pulled this unofficial figure from discussions in the Tesla forums).