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ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

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Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#251

Post by lossolo »

lairv wrote: post #213
AgentMatrixAI wrote: post #47

I'm not so optimistic as someone that works on agents for businesses and creating tools for it. The leap from low 90s to 99% is classic last mile problem for LLM agents. The more generic and spread an agent is (can-do-it-all) the more likely it will fail and disappoint. Can't help but feel many are optimizing happy paths in their demos and hiding the true reality. Doesn't mean there isn't a place for agents but rathe…

In general most of the previous AI "breakthrough" in the last decade were backed by proper scientific research and ideas: - AlphaGo/AlphaZero (MCTS) - OpenAI Five (PPO) - GPT 1/2/3 (Transformers) - Dall-e 1/2, Stable Diffusion (CLIP, Diffusion) - ChatGPT (RLHF) - SORA (Diffusion Transformers) "Agents" is a marketing term and isn't backed by anything. There is little data available, so it's hard to have generally capa…

Yep. Agents are only powered by clever use of training data, nothing more. There hasn't been a real breakthrough in a long time.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#252

Post by testfrequency »

seydor wrote: post #235
testfrequency wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you have a positive opinion when Apple does things after others, but Europe having a slower, cautious approach is treated as negative for you? What is your preference for Europe, complete floodgates open and never ending lawsuits over IP theft like we have in the USA currently over AI? The US is not the example of what’s working, it’s merely a demonstration of what is possible when you have limited, provoked regul…

I said apple does not do that. Apple invented the smartphone before samsung or anyone. There is no such thing as "slow" in business. If you re slow you go out of business, you re no longer a business. There is only one AI race. There is no second round. If you stay out of the race, you will be forever indebted to the AI winner, in the same way that we are entirely dependent on US internet technology currently (and th…

I feel fundamentally we are two different people with very different views on this, not sure we are going to agree on anything here to be honest.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#253

Post by joe_the_user »

simantel wrote: post #197
ricardobayes wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, Pareto principle is at work here. In an adjacent field, self-driving, they are working on the last "20%" for almost a decade now. It feels kind of odd that almost no one is talking about self-driving now, compared to how hot of a topic it used to be, with a lot of deep, moral, almost philosophical discussions.

> It feels kind of odd that almost no one is talking about self-driving now, compared to how hot of a topic it used to be Probably because it's just here now? More people take Waymo than Lyft each day in SF.

Well, if we say these systems are here, it still took 10+ years between prototype and operational system.

And as I understand it; These are systems, not individual cars that are intelligent and just decide how to drive from immediate input, These system still require some number of human wranglers and worst-case drivers, there's a lot of specific-purpose code rather nothing-but-neural-network etc.

Which to say "AI"/neural nets are important technology that can achieve things but they can give an illusion of doing everything instantly by magic but they generally don't do that.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#254

Post by ipaddr »

n2d4 wrote: post #148
dingnuts wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The critics of the current AI buzz certainly have been drawing comparisons to self driving cars as LLMs inch along with their logarithmic curve of improvement that's been clear since the GPT-2 days. Whenever someone tells me how these models are going to make white collar professions obsolete in five years, I remind them that the people making these predictions 1) said we'd have self driving cars "in a few years" bac…

> said we'd have self driving cars "in a few years" back in 2015 And they wouldn't have been too far off! Waymo became L4 self-driving in 2021, and has been transporting people in the SF Bay Area without human supervision ever since. There are still barriers — cost, policies, trust — but the technology certainly is here.

Reminds me of electricity entering the market and the first DC power stations setup in New York to power a few buildings. It would have been impossible to replicate that model for everyone. AC solved the distance issue.

That's where we are at with self driving. It can only operate in one small area, you can't own one.

We're not even close to where we are with 3d printers today or the microwave in the 50s.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#255

Post by bugbuddy »

ipaddr wrote: post #241
bugbuddy wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you please expand on your point about expanding scopes? I am waiting earnestly for all the cheaper services that these expansions promise. You know cheaper white-collar-services like accounting, tax, and healthcare etc. The last reports saw accelerating service inflation. Someone is lying. Please tell me who.

It's saving healthcare costs for those who solved their problem and never go in which would not be reflected in service inflation costs.

Back in my youthful days, educated and informed people chastised using the internet to self-diagnose and self-treat. I completely missed the memo on when it became a good idea to do so with LLMs.

Which model should I ask about this vague pain I have been having in my left hip? Will my insurance cover the model service subscription? Also, my inner thigh skin looks a bit bruised. Not sure what’s going on? Does the chat interface allow me to upload a picture of it? It won’t train on my photos right?

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#256

Post by twosdai »

htrp wrote: post #247
bredren wrote: post #236

This solves a big issue for existing CLI agents, which is session persistence for users working from their own machines. With claude code, you usually start it from your own local terminal. Then you have access to all the code bases and other context you need and can provide that to the AI. But when you shut your laptop, or have network availability changes the show stops. I've solved this somewhat on MacOS using the…

Run dev on an actual server somewhere that doesn't shut down

You know normally I am against doing this, but for claude code that is a very good use case.

The latency used to really bother me, but if Claude does 99% of the typing. Its a good idea.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#257

Post by skeeter2020 »

fkyoureadthedoc wrote: post #174
kingnothing wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

95% of people doing his job will lose them. 1 person will figure out the 2% that requires a human in the loop.

I don't know why everyone is so confident that jobs will be lost. When we invented power tools did we fire everyone that builds stuff, or did we just build more stuff?

if you replace "power tools" with industrial automation it's easy to cherry pick extremes from either side. Manufacturing? a lot of jobs displaced, maybe not lost.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#258

Post by yahoozoo »

gorbypark wrote: post #195
apwell23 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's great to see at least one company creating real AI agents. I am already doing the type of examples in that post with claude code. claude code is not just for code. this week i've been doing market research in real estate with claude code.

I opened up the app bundle of CC on macOS and CC is incredibly simple at its core! There’s about 14 tools (read, write, grep, bash, etc). The power is in the combination of the model, the tools and the system prompt/tool description prompts. It’s kind of mind blowing how well my cobbled together home brew version actually works. It doesn’t have the fancy CLI GUI but it is more or less performant as CC when running it…

Are you saying that you modified/added to the app bundle for CC?

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#259

Post by imiric »

ameliaquining wrote: post #157
danny_codes wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s past the hype curve and into the trough of disillusionment. Over the next 5,10,15 years (who can say?) the tech will mature out of the trough into general adoption. GenAI is the exciting new tech currently riding the initial hype spike. This will die down into the trough of disillusionment as well, probably sometime next year. Like self-driving, people will continue to innovate in the space and the tech will be…

The Gartner hype cycle assumes a single fundamental technical breakthrough, and describes the process of the market figuring out what it is and isn't good for. This isn't straightforwardly applicable to LLMs because the question of what they're good for is a moving target; the foundation models are actually getting more capable every few months, which wasn't true of cryptocurrency or self-driving cars. At least some…

> If scaling doesn't stall out soon, then I honestly have no idea what to expect the visibility curve to look like.

We are seeing diminishing returns on scaling already. LLMs released this year have been marginal improvements over their predecessors. Graphs on benchmarks[1] are hitting an asymptote.

The improvements we are seeing are related to engineering and value added services. This is why "agents" are the latest buzzword most marketing is clinging on. This is expected, and good, in a sense. The tech is starting to deliver actual value as it's maturing.

I reckon AI companies can still squeeze out a few years of good engineering around the current generation of tools. The question is what happens if there are no ML breakthroughs in that time. The industry desperately needs them for the promise of ASI, AI 2027, and the rest of the hyped predictions to become reality. Otherwise it will be a rough time when the bubble actually bursts.

[1]: https://llm-stats.com/

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#260

Post by NortySpock »

ivape wrote: post #196
Aurornis wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how it normally takes him 4 to 8 hours to put together complicated, data-heavy reports. Now he fires off an agent request, goes to walk his dog, and comes back to a downloadable spreadsheet of dense data, which he pulls up and says "I think it got 98% of the information correct... This is where the AI hype bites people. A great use of AI in this situation would be to automate the collection and checking of data. Se…

”The people who YOLO it with prompting cycles until the code passes tests and then submit a PR are causing problems almost as fast as they’re developing new features in non-trivial codebases.” This might as well be the new definition of “script kiddie”, and it’s the kids that are literally going to be the ones birthed into this lifestyle. The “craft” of programming may not be carried by these coming generations and p…

Oh come on, people have been writing code with bad, incomplete, flaky, or absent tests since automated testing was invented (possibly before).

It's having a good, useful and reliable test suite that separates the sheep from the goats.*

Would you rather play whack-a-mole with regressions and Heisenbugs, or ship features?

* (Or you use some absurdly good programing language that is hard to get into knots with. I've been liking Elixir. Gleam looks even better...)

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