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ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

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91–100 of 508 posts

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#91
post #30

The "spreadsheet" example video is kind of funny: guy talks about how it normally takes him 4 to 8 hours to put together complicated, data-heavy reports. Now he fires off an agent request, goes to walk his dog, and comes back to a downloadable spreadsheet of dense data, which he pulls up and says "I think it got 98% of the information correct... I just needed to copy / paste a few things. If it can do 90 - 95% of the…

I call it a monkey's paw for this exact reason.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#92
post #14

It's very hard for me to imagine the current level of agents serving a useful purpose in my personal life. If I ask this to plan a date night with my wife this weekend, it needs to consult my calendar to pick the best night, pick a bar and restaurant we like (how would it know?), book a babysitter (can it learn who we use and text them on my behalf?), etc. This is a lot of stuff it has to get right, and it requires a…

it can already talk to your calendar, it was mentioned in the video

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#93
post #14

It's very hard for me to imagine the current level of agents serving a useful purpose in my personal life. If I ask this to plan a date night with my wife this weekend, it needs to consult my calendar to pick the best night, pick a bar and restaurant we like (how would it know?), book a babysitter (can it learn who we use and text them on my behalf?), etc. This is a lot of stuff it has to get right, and it requires a…

Maybe this is the "bitter lesson of agentic decisions": hard things in your life are hard because they involve deeply personal values and complex interpersonal dynamics, not because they are difficult in an operational sense. Calling a restaurant to make a reservation is trivial. Deciding what restaurant to take your wife to for your wedding anniversary is the hard part (Does ChatGPT know that your first date was at a burger-and-shake place? Does it know your wife got food poisoning the last time she ate sushi?). Even a highly paid human concierge couldn't do it for you. The Navier–Stokes smoothness problem will be solved before "plan a birthday party for my daughter."

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#94
post #30

The "spreadsheet" example video is kind of funny: guy talks about how it normally takes him 4 to 8 hours to put together complicated, data-heavy reports. Now he fires off an agent request, goes to walk his dog, and comes back to a downloadable spreadsheet of dense data, which he pulls up and says "I think it got 98% of the information correct... I just needed to copy / paste a few things. If it can do 90 - 95% of the…

Of course, Pareto principle is at work here. In an adjacent field, self-driving, they are working on the last "20%" for almost a decade now. It feels kind of odd that almost no one is talking about self-driving now, compared to how hot of a topic it used to be, with a lot of deep, moral, almost philosophical discussions.

> The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time.

— Tom Cargill, Bell Labs

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#95
post #30

The "spreadsheet" example video is kind of funny: guy talks about how it normally takes him 4 to 8 hours to put together complicated, data-heavy reports. Now he fires off an agent request, goes to walk his dog, and comes back to a downloadable spreadsheet of dense data, which he pulls up and says "I think it got 98% of the information correct... I just needed to copy / paste a few things. If it can do 90 - 95% of the…

Of course, Pareto principle is at work here. In an adjacent field, self-driving, they are working on the last "20%" for almost a decade now. It feels kind of odd that almost no one is talking about self-driving now, compared to how hot of a topic it used to be, with a lot of deep, moral, almost philosophical discussions.

It’s past the hype curve and into the trough of disillusionment. Over the next 5,10,15 years (who can say?) the tech will mature out of the trough into general adoption.

GenAI is the exciting new tech currently riding the initial hype spike. This will die down into the trough of disillusionment as well, probably sometime next year. Like self-driving, people will continue to innovate in the space and the tech will be developed towards general adoption.

We saw the same during crypto hype, though that could be construed as more of a snake oil type event.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#96
post #86
post #70

I've been using OpenAI operator for some time - but more and more websites are blocking it, such as LinkedIn and Amazon. That's two key use-cases gone (applying to jobs and online shopping). Operator is pretty low-key, but once Agent starts getting popular, more sites will block it. They'll need to allow a proxy configuration or something like that.

There needs to be a profit sharing scheme. This is the same reason publishers didn't like Google providing answers instead of links.

Why does an ecommerce website need a profit sharing agreement?

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#97
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the exact same issue that I've had trying to use LLMs for anything that needs to be precise such as multi-step data pipelines. The code it produces will look correct and produce a result that seems correct. But when you do quality checks on the end data, you'll notice that things are not adding up. So then you have to dig into all this overly verbose code to identify the 3-4 subtle flaws with how it transform…

I think it's basically equivalent to giving that prompt to a low paid contractor coder and hoping their solution works out. At least the turnaround time is faster? But normally you would want a more hands on back and forth to ensure the requirements actually capture everything, validation and etc that the results are good, layers of reviews right

It seems to be a mix between hiring an offshore/low level contractor and playing a slot machine. And by that I mean at least with the contractor you can pretty quickly understand their limitations and see a pattern in the mistakes they make. While an LLM is obviously faster, the mistakes are seemingly random so you have to examine the result much more than you would with a contractor (if you are working on something that needs to be exact).

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#98
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the exact same issue that I've had trying to use LLMs for anything that needs to be precise such as multi-step data pipelines. The code it produces will look correct and produce a result that seems correct. But when you do quality checks on the end data, you'll notice that things are not adding up. So then you have to dig into all this overly verbose code to identify the 3-4 subtle flaws with how it transform…

I think it's basically equivalent to giving that prompt to a low paid contractor coder and hoping their solution works out. At least the turnaround time is faster? But normally you would want a more hands on back and forth to ensure the requirements actually capture everything, validation and etc that the results are good, layers of reviews right

If the contractor is producing unusable code, they won't be my contractor anymore.

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#99
post #14

It's very hard for me to imagine the current level of agents serving a useful purpose in my personal life. If I ask this to plan a date night with my wife this weekend, it needs to consult my calendar to pick the best night, pick a bar and restaurant we like (how would it know?), book a babysitter (can it learn who we use and text them on my behalf?), etc. This is a lot of stuff it has to get right, and it requires a…

Maybe this is the "bitter lesson of agentic decisions": hard things in your life are hard because they involve deeply personal values and complex interpersonal dynamics, not because they are difficult in an operational sense. Calling a restaurant to make a reservation is trivial. Deciding what restaurant to take your wife to for your wedding anniversary is the hard part (Does ChatGPT know that your first date was at…

Well, people do have personal assistants and concierges, so it can be done? but I think they need a lot of time and personal attention from you to get that useful right. they need to remember everything you've mentioned offhand or take little corrections consistently.

It seems to me like you have to reset the context window on LLMs way more often than would be practical for that

Re: ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action

#100
post #30

The "spreadsheet" example video is kind of funny: guy talks about how it normally takes him 4 to 8 hours to put together complicated, data-heavy reports. Now he fires off an agent request, goes to walk his dog, and comes back to a downloadable spreadsheet of dense data, which he pulls up and says "I think it got 98% of the information correct... I just needed to copy / paste a few things. If it can do 90 - 95% of the…

I think this is my favorite part of the LLM hype train: the butterfly effect of dependence on an undependable stochastic system propagates errors up the chain until the whole system is worthless. "I think it got 98% of the information correct..." how do you know how much is correct without doing the whole thing properly yourself? The two options are: - Do the whole thing yourself to validate - Skim 40% of it, 'seems…

> how do you know how much is correct

Because it's a budget. Verifying them is _much_ cheaper than finding all the entries in a giant PDF in the first place.

> the butterfly effect of dependence on an undependable stochastic system

We're using stochastic systems for a long time. We know just fine how to deal with them.

> Meanwhile an agent that you accept to get only 98% of things right is meeting expectations.

There are very few tasks humans complete at a 98% success rate either. If you think "build spreadsheet from PDF" comes anywhere close to that, you've never done that task. We're barely able to recognize objects in their default orientation at a 98% success rate. (And in many cases, deep networks outperform humans at object recognition)

The task of engineering has always been to manage error rates and risk, not to achieve perfection. "butterfly effect" is a cheap rhetorical distraction, not a criticism.

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