This may be bad for tech stocks, but this is actually good for technology because the supposed monopoly in ML is deteriorating.
Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#252The parallels with the dotcom bubble are clear... Tech is magical. Tech becomes cheap/free. Stock holders panic. For some time it's been clear that there's an AI bubble and this may be what finally pops it.
According to you there's a bubble in AI and this... legitimate AI research breakthrough... may be the thing that pops the bubble?
Bubble's don't always imply fraudulent underlying tech.
The dot com bubble was a real thing, and yet the internet has gone on to be one of humanities most valuable innovations.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#253Because nobody would ever have imagined that clever people would optimize AI software so it doesn't need billions of expensive chips?
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#254Earlier quoted context omitted.
The bigger correction will be in tech stocks that are overly exposed to datacenter investments to accommodate for ever rising AI demands. MSFT, AMZN, META they are all exposed
MSFT is down 7%
It's kind of silly. It's not like MSFT and the other hyper-scalers dont need the capacity build out for other reasons too. This should be an easy pivot if DeepSeek turns out to be as good as promised.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
Huggingface is currently replicating it. Replications of small models indicate that they don't lie any significant amount. The architecture is cheap to train. Berkeley Researchers Replicate DeepSeek R1's Core Tech for Just $30: A Small Model RL Revolution https://xyzlabs.substack.com/p/berkeley-researchers-replicat...
You call R1 a small model? It's a 671-billion parameter model.
There are multiple variations of the model starting from 1.5B parameters.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#256The part of this that doesn’t jibe with me is the fact that they also released this incredibly detailed technical report on their architecture and training strategy. The paper is well-written and has a lot of specifics. Exactly the opposite of what you would do if you had truly made an advancement of world-altering magnitude. All this says to me is that the models themselves have very little intrinsic value / are hig…
> The part of this that doesn’t jibe with me is the fact that they also released this incredibly detailed technical report on their architecture and training strategy. The paper is well-written and has a lot of specifics. Exactly the opposite of what you would do if you had truly made an advancement of world-altering magnitude. I disagree completely on this sentiment. This was in fact the trend for a century or more…
Exactly. There's a strong case for being open about the advancements in AI. Secretive companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, and others are undercut by DeepSeek and any other company on the globe who wants to build on what they've published. Politically there are more reasons why China should not become the global center of AI and less reasons why the US should remain the center of it. Therefore, an approach that enables AI institutions worldwide makes more sense for China at this stage. The EU for example has even less reason now to form a dependency on OpenAI and Nvidia, which works to the advantage of China and Chinese AI companies.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#257I will never forget HN's not-made-in-the-US bias https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42514633
this one too https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41999151 people are just more focusing on the political side of it
this happens in EVERY thead about Chinese tech news
it's always 'but tiananmen square'
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#258Buy the dip
with what
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#259Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
> DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. DeepSeek claims that's what they spent. They're under a trade embargo, and if they had access to any more than that it would have been obtained illegally. They might be telling the truth, but let's wait until someone else replicates it before we fully accept it.
>been obtained illegally. PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal (for PRC companies). Maybe they're trying to avoid US entity listing, lot's of PRC companies keep mum about growing capabilites to do so. But the mere fact Deepseek is publicizing means they're unlikely to care about the political heat that is coming and the ramifications. If anything, getting on US entity list probably locks in their em…
Depending on how the law is written this may be legal even under US law.
For instance if the law bans US companies from exporting/selling some chips to Chinese companies and that's it then it is unclear to me whether a Chinese company would do anything illegal under US law by buying such chips as it would be for the American seller to refuse.
Anyway, usually this sort of things takes place through intermediaries in third countries so it is difficult to track but obviously it would be stupid to brag about it if that happened.