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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#251

Post by blaser-waffle »

daqhris wrote: post #151
avodonosov wrote: post #59

A "whistleblower" should reveal some secret facts. Here we have a collectiol of opinions, even if by an FSB worker.

Whistleblower in times of war is less likely. Going public with secret info is exponentially risky because of information overload and lethal punishment. Exile, sedition or refuge-seeking would be more rewarding to a top-notch professional wanting to spill the beans to the West.

Aye, if this revealed facts that could get people killed, or get you shot for treason.

If you say "we're stressed, things are not great, the Chechens are unstable" thats... not a direct leak; nothing super actionable there. Maybe enough to be hanged in Putin's wartime Russia, but nothing that will stop an offensive.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#252

Post by blaser-waffle »

xhevahir wrote: post #193

This reminded me of a quote by Kissinger: "What political leaders decide, intelligence services tend to justify. Popular literature and films often depict the opposite – policymakers as the helpless tools of intelligence experts. In the real world, intelligence assessments more often follow than guide policy decisions."

And when they don't they create new positions to "stovepipe" assessments around intelligence orgs, e.g. the DNI.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#253

Post by petre »

tazjin wrote: post #93
eterevsky wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point about the news of nuclear weapons. I missed the fact that this post was published before the news went live. It is conceivable that Ukrainian intelligence could know about these plans, but this post being a genuine FSB leak is a much more probable explanation.

For what it's worth, the talk about Ukrainian nuclear weapons was in Russian internet before this letter appeared. The idea doesn't originate from it. (Not writing this to suggest anything about its authenticity, just adding information)

The Russians are using the old "Saddam Hussein has WMDs" meme. Just replace Saddam with Zelenski and throw in the "fighting facsism" theme to reuse some Cold War propaganda that the Soviets were brainwashing everyone East of the Iron Curtain with.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#254

Post by petre »

praptak wrote: post #189
the_af wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, some [1] news are reporting Ukraine is either sending or considering releasing people from prison to fight the Russians. [1] non Russian news outlets, if you google you'll get many hits

The context matters. Do they send prisoners against their will, or offer a deal?

Yes they claim to offer a clemence deal: fight the Russians and somehow get pardoned.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#255

Post by [deleted] »

petre wrote: post #249
the_af wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Creating a long fake is riskier than a short fake. Making mistakes is a risk, and so the more content the more risk. But this isn't really a long piece. It's very short in actual content, only padded with prose. And what exactly is the risk anyway? That someone will identify it as Ukrainian disinformation? That's very low stakes, which we know because it has already happened with other bits of "info".

The Kadyrov FSB leak being Ukranian counter information is quite plausible. Maybe they got tipped off by NATO and after neutralizing the chechens, they claimed it was a FSB leak.

[deleted]

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#256

Post by petre »

MrMan wrote: post #227
sillysaurusx wrote: post #119

It was a tense week, but Russia has lost the war. They can drag it out, but ultimately victory will go to Ukraine. The reasons for this are subtle but obvious. The Russian military machine can't operate outside of Russia. They have no way of transporting fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lies. This means that their effective operational capabilities are limited to five days. It's been a hobby of…

victory is impossible for Ukraine, which will probably lose a lot of territory, lives, infrastructure, economic development, out-migration. but Russia cant win either

This conflict has the potential to further weaken Russia and trigger breakaway separatist republics, at least in the North Caucaz while also transforming it into a Chinese satellite like Mongolia, Kazahstan and Kyrgyzstan. It was a really stupid move on Putin's part.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#258

Post by stjohnswarts »

jl6 wrote: post #245

It “smells right” to a Western audience, but seems a little too good to be true. Right now objective #1 for Ukraine is to get NATO to implement a no-fly zone. NATO are reluctant because of the risk of escalating into a direct war with nuclear-armed Russia. The payload of this letter is the claim that the Russian nuclear deterrent is in a state of disrepair, or that cooler heads will prevent it being used. And thus if…

NATO is never going to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. Anyone who thinks that they are is living in a dream world.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#259

Post by stjohnswarts »

itsailor wrote: post #23

All information in this note is fake. Check facts. Without emotions. Update: Look for rebuttals, not confirmations, to verify information.

You're going to need to cite sources or no one is going to pay attention to you.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#260

Post by obscurette »

mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

Insightful takes on topics outside of IT and maybe natural/applied sciences are probably actually rare in HN. It is at least my impression on these few areas I have some expertise. Topics related to culture and stuff most people in the world don't have any experience with (violent dictatorships for example) are genuinely hard to explain even for people with real insight and knowledge.

And regarding trolls in HN: this topic here is also full of comments "it's all fake", "where is the proof?" etc. It's the tactics troll factories used for years in every corner of the world. It's one of the main methods to erode the trust in societies. So, are these comments from trolls or from genuine smartasses? I don't really know.

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