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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#61
I've seen this text in Russian several days ago.

To me it looks like regurgitated points from https://el-murid.livejournal.com/ (in Russian), which is sophisticated (as opposed to spewing blatant lies) propaganda outlet hiding the payload within a series of perfectly correct and logical statements.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#62
post #54
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

> This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB I've only seen this being vouched by one guy on Twitter (Christo Grozev), or maybe I'm missing something? It seems very authentic, just very weird that an FSB guy would publicly post something like this.

That is who I'm referring to, yes.

It was sent to a contact who then published it on their behalf. They were operating as a whistleblower, as I understand it.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#63
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

Russia has been stating ukraine was trying to develop nuclear weapons for a week now.

Sources for that? If so, it's not been pushed as major news until today.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well thank you for that incredibly useful contribution. No, not all information in this note is fake, that is complete nonsense, so now, if you don't mind, please point out exactly which bits you believe are fake and why?

There are no references to verified facts in the note. This is just a private opinion. If one person came up with something, it does not mean that everyone thinks so.

You are saying it is fake, so now the onus is on you to prove that it is fake. You didn't say 'it's an opinion' you said 'All information in this note is fake.' That is a statement of fact, no longer an opinion, so now, just like you claim the article should have done you have to back up your claim with facts. And if not then you should retract your claim.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#66
post #54
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

> This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB I've only seen this being vouched by one guy on Twitter (Christo Grozev), or maybe I'm missing something? It seems very authentic, just very weird that an FSB guy would publicly post something like this.

[deleted]

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#67
post #37

It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

Good point about the news of nuclear weapons. I missed the fact that this post was published before the news went live. It is conceivable that Ukrainian intelligence could know about these plans, but this post being a genuine FSB leak is a much more probable explanation.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#68
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

Quoted post unavailable.

Politics ought to be adjusted not to human reasonings but to human nature, of which reason is but a part and by no means the greatest part. -- Edmund Burke

To make a somewhat contra-positive corollary;

If you want to remove politics you need to remove humans. -- Me

HN wouldn't be much without humans.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#70
post #31

'Meteorites' is a mis-translation for artillery or missiles I assume.

More likely this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UR-77_Meterorit, but in the Russian it's still not clear. The translation is not perfect, I tried to improve it a bit below:

> Вас просят (условно) рассчитать возможность правозащиты в разных условиях, включая атаку тюрем метеоритами. Вы уточняете про метеориты, Вам говорят - это так, перестраховка для расчетов, ничего такого не будет

They ask you (hypothetically) to work out the probability that human rights could be protected in various circumstances, including using meteorites to attack prisons. You try to clarify about the meteorites, they tell you it's just to be confident in the estimations, nothing like this would actually happen.

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