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U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

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Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any skirmish in space will give us kessler syndrome, destroy all satellustes and render nost orbits inaccessible for hundreds of years. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

As the article notes, blowing things up isn't the only option. Blinding / hacking / deorbiting / etc. a bunch of early warning satellites of one of the major nuclear powers would be a majorly destabilizing move.

But it only takes one losing side to decide - Fuck it, we're losing so 'fire all your guns and explode all in space' to destroy everything in orbit with a massive amount of debris that'll last for years.

Russia's little test a few weeks ago showed how that might be.

So hopefully that's the MAD scenario that will keep peace in orbital space for a while yet.

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#252
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they can never reach hegemony. The economy and population of the US would never have allowed it to reach hegemony if it wasn't for WW2 and it's extremely privileged position in North America. Geographically China will always have a lot of trouble projecting naval power internationally because of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Malaccas. Thus, even if it had 2x the economy of the US, the US would still be able…

What does it mean to be an hegemony on your terms? Economically China being number one is just a matter of time, military I wouldn't count on them stopping short before US. Good luck trying to convince +1B people being fed government propaganda that they're not entitled to everything when they keep pushing 2 digits growth every year for 30 years. You're also missing the long game of China. Probably on our lifetimes t…

Hegemony means you are able to act mostly uncontested in most of the world. That's what the US can do today.

The economic focus in the world moved to the US for about 70 years before the US gained hegemony.

You can be number one without being the hegemon.

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, only two or maybe three organizations in the world can do that. It's not just firing a rocket if you want to hit a car sized target that's 400km away and moving at 7km/s, you need satellite navigation and global radar coverage to even try it and you are getting cut from that infrastructure way before you reach your target if you perform an unannounced launch that even looks remotely like an orbital attack.

The article we are discussing is about laser and EM attacks. Anyone with a software defined radio, a directional antenna, and some skillz can mount ground-based EM hacking attempts on satellites, and there are many academic astronomical facilities with artificial star lasers which could pull off attacks to disable the imagers of spy satellites. (Note that individuals don't because this is the sort of thing that gets…

How easy (or difficult?) is it to determine the origin point of a ground-based attack like the one you described? I imagine the time of day a satellite goes out narrows down the field of possible locations but is it something that can be quickly identified with pinpoint accuracy or something that can only be narrowed down to “it came from somewhere within this 500 mile radius”?

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#254
Russia claims falsely it has the capability to take out all our GPS sats, yes it have the technology, but it does not have the rockets in place to do it.

It's high time we resurrect the "Star Wars" program of the Reagan years, which was what brought the original Soviet Union to it's knees. Giant sats in space all around the globe with huge laser banks that can identify and destroy ICBM's from Russia and China.

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be a Chinese hegemony. The actual decision is between US hegemony and a duopolar or multipolar world. The latter are pretty obviously preferable if you're not American or not very closely allied.

Because multipolar times have been sooo peaceful......

A duopolar system is the most stable.

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't Taiwan need a credible second strike capability as well? The US probably can't credibly guarantee their safety, so they'd need to be able to do that themselves, otherwise the threat is empty and useless. But say the US really did arm Taiwan with first and second strike capabilities, I don't even think the US could stomach the reaction to that. How long could they hold out if embargoed by the PRC?

I always said the same thing. Give those 3 nukes and then declare defensive strike doctrine. My military friend says “it’s not a good idea” but I don’t see why. Call their bluff.

>I don’t see why

Because simply PRC has never been deterred by nukes over sovereignty issues. It has fought with nuclear US, USSR and India over core interests less interest than TW. Former two while PRC wasn't nuclear power herself.

Also because TW is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, and TW even hinting nuclearizing gives PRC legitimate casus belli to go to war with relatively few consequences due to proliferation concerns. Not to mention US would be arming weapons of mass destruction to CCP's antagonist in domestic Chinese civil war. PRC would likely treat any nuclear US on TW's part as direct US nuclear launch. If it's going to trade Taipei for Shanghai, it's going to make sure US loses NYC as well for participating.

Reality is nuclear deterrence doesn't actually deter when core security interests are involved, i.e. USSR HAD nukes on Cuba during the crisis and US was still willing to invade.

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#257
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scale of China's economy and population is so massive that they're clearly capable of hegemony. And as you say, it's good to be at the top. It would be irrational of China's leadership to seek anything else.

No, they can never reach hegemony. The economy and population of the US would never have allowed it to reach hegemony if it wasn't for WW2 and it's extremely privileged position in North America. Geographically China will always have a lot of trouble projecting naval power internationally because of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Malaccas. Thus, even if it had 2x the economy of the US, the US would still be able…

> you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe.

"never" is a strong word here.

Tech and military wise they're catching up really fast. They have a much fitter and controlled population. Their economy is doing real good, they're spreading their influence over Africa, &c.

The US is crumbling on virtually every aspect, Europe isn't doing much better, if China and the US stays on their respective courses your "never" will be more like "in 50-100 years".

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#258
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians new ICBM don't go to space and fly a “low” altitude trajectory to avoid ABM defences. including, it seems, these pebbles. Anyway, the Russians or the Chinese, if they reasonably feel they’re being denied access to space will trigger the Kessler syndrome. what happens if the Russians counter the 1000 mini-pebbles in space with ten massive satellites filled with TNT, ball bearings and a remote trigger? Ult…

ICBMs by definition go to space, the B stands for Ballistic. FOB systems aren't ballistic either (that B stands for Bombardment), but still go to space and Brilliant Pebbles is designed to intercept missiles during the initial boost phase, so it would work against FOB systems too. Brilliant Pebbles, once in place, can stop any satellite launch, including those intended to trigger the Kessler syndrome. Of course, Russ…

Ballistic doesn't mean space, it mean paraboloid trajectory. A baseball is ballistic. But I concede your point.

Its pedantic though. The new missiles do have a shallow trajectory specifically to avoid interception including in the boost phase.

Add to that, the Russians have hypersonic missiles.

Starlink wont checkmate the Russians.

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about EM attacks, but I don't think disabling the imager of a spy satellite with a laser from the ground is feasible. If it makes it through the atmosphere it would just scatter or open up too much. Artificial stars shine by reacting with the atmosphere that kinda ends around 30km. LEO imagers fly as low as 240km but are even higher than that usually. EM "attacks" wouldn't do much except if you are trying to…

If you're trying to blind a spy satellite, you don't need to focus your laser through the atmosphere. Focusing through the atmosphere is what the satellite is built to do! The better the satellite's atmospheric correction, the more effectively your laser will be focused on the imager. Sure, maybe you don't burn it, but if you can saturate the right pixels... (Although the wavelengths used to create artificial stars a…

This probably moves it out of the realm of an "everyone can do this" thing, but there are also a couple of other approaches that the more advanced and decently funded militaries could use to deal with atmospheric correction. I first heard of tests of these in the late '70s or early '80s.

1. They made a laser that included a phase conjugate mirror such that if you hit the system with some incoming laser light it would greatly amplify it and send it back the way it came.

To use this as a weapon, you'd point it at your target, hit the target with a guide laser, some of that light reflects off the target and enters your phase conjugate laser, and your phase conjugate laser sends a much stronger beam back.

As long as your target is near enough that atmospheric conditions between your weapon and the target have not had a chance to change over the time of a speed of light round trip, all the atmospheric distortions that dispersed the guide laser's reflection to the weapon serve to concentrate the weapon's beam on the target.

2. You can make an energy weapon that uses a phased array of radiators to direct the beam. You aim it in the general direction of your target.

Then you can start varying the phase of each radiator, and you analyze the reflections from the target. If a given radiator happens to be at the right phase so that it is contributing toward producing a maximum or a minimum at the target you won't see much variation in the reflection at the frequency you are varying that radiator's phase. If the phase of the radiator is such that it is in between, you'll see more variation at that frequency in the reflection. (A graph of the radiator's contribution versus phase looks like a sine wave. When it is maximally contributing it is at the peak, when not it is near a zero. Near a peak wiggling side to side doesn't change much because a sine wave is flatter there. When near a zero the sine wave is steep so a little side to side wiggle changes a lot).

Use a different frequency for the phase variation of each radiator, feed what you see reflected into a Fourier analyzer, and use the relative strengths of what you see at the variation frequencies as feedback to adjust the radiator phases, and you can get the array to quickly adjust to by focused on and stay on the target.

They were playing around with a small one of these at Hughes Research Laboratories in the late '70s. I know because the professor [1] who taught APh 23 (Demonstration Lectures in Optics) at Caltech when I took it in the '79-80 school year was also a researcher at Hughes working on it, and one class he showed us a video of a test.

It was pretty cool. It started with a black background and a bunch of blobs of light moving around as the system has nothing to focus on. Then someone dangled a small metal model of the starship Enterprise in front of the background, and all the blobs instantly converged on it.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_B._Bridges

Re: U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whose culture is right? What is right in the eyes of the law? Perhaps I’m the only one who feels this way based on the number of pro-China posts, but a Chinese hegemony would likely be a world of censorship and social credit. Compared to a flawed US democracy I’ll take the US democracy every time.

This is a good point. People often lose some perspective in their analysis of the U.S/Western European-based cultural, political and economic dominance that exists in the world today. And while it certainly is loaded with numerous flaws and misdeeds, the Chinese system of government, social control and cultural management is very easily far worse in so many ways (none of this is to even mention the absolutely grotesq…

This. I genuinely think that a China (CCP)-dominated world means the end of free thought, forget about free expression.
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