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It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

noaa.gov

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Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#251

Post by trts »

cryptoz wrote: post #139
bwship wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't call myself a denier. But a hot July doesn't sound that scary. Next thing that will happen is February will be the coldest month ever recorded, and then people will really lose their shit.

Why is it not scary? The hot July killed 1000 people in the Pacific Northwest alone in just 1 week. An entire Canadian town burned the the ground, basically nothing left. Residents had 15 minutes warning and not everyone made it out. Where are you located that this hot July wasn't scary? This hot July had my fingers on emergency services as temperatures rose, AC couldn't keep up, loved ones with asthma and already tr…

I was in the PNW for that heat wave, it is not scary to me in an acute sense. I didn't have AC, it was 100 degrees in my house at 10pm for a couple days and it was unpleasant.

It seems like there are now several imminent threats to continued human thriving on earth, global warming among them. But humanity cannot collectively solve its problems (anymore?), and I have not heard anyone smart propose a practical way to think about solving the problem of humanity being unable to collectively solve its own problems.

The more panic that gets spread, whether moral or existential, the more people seem to just throw their hands up. I find this understandable, although depressing, because even small contingencies of voters within a place can't agree on the basic terms of reality anymore. It isn't obvious to me how Russia, China, EU, India and US will come together soon to alter course. But a lot of municipalities will pass legislation that amounts to virtue signaling.

What's scary when everything you've read from the media your whole life promises mass death and suffering to come? Everything and nothing. By some forecasts dating back 50 years, it was supposed to be over by now. The Malthusians thought the planet would run out of food a hundred years ago.

I think this current era has a higher likelihood of being a true threat to humanity, but how much study should I undertake to be sure? How much work should I do to look behind the headlines, that at least 30% of everyone knows are full of lies and sensationalism. What is the impact of my individual contribution or vehement agreement that things are dire?

How can we replace the insistence that everyone be afraid with the insistence that we do something constructive about it?

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#252

Post by ajross »

qqtt wrote: post #228

On record meaning 142 years of history. Sometimes people conflate "on record" with "ever since humans were around" but on a species scale 142 years is basically no history at all. Not to say that climate change isn't a very serious issue, but we will likely have to live with the realities of where we are headed, and life has adapted in the past to much larger swings of temperature.

"Life" will adapt. Ecosystems won't. It really sounds like you're expressing your feelings about a likely mass extinction event as "shit happens, what're you gonna do?"

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#253

Post by throwaway894345 »

SigmundA wrote: post #21
lmilcin wrote: post #8

Who still believes global warming does not exist? I am currently listening to audiobook of Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six (1998). It has a paragraph on global warming and trying to convince POTUS it is real. And POTUS not wanting to act on it because it would be too large economic drag on US. This book is almost quarter of century old.

Most of the deniers I know have shifted from it doesn't exist to either its not man made and just a natural cycle or it may actually be a good thing because plants like CO2 and warmth...

Personally I'm more concerned about the absolutely tepid response by folks who allegedly believe in climate change. I don't know how we are going to put a dent in climate change without something like carbon pricing (something that incentivizes us to reduce our carbon emissions). Instead the best case is that we're going to write progressives a check for $3.5T and they'll use a little bit of it to create a "civilian climate corps" and rebates for EVs and EV charging stations. Not the response I would expect to an existential threat.

Yeah, it's fun to blame Republicans for not believing in climate change (and they deserve a lot of blame), but I have a much harder time with people who profess a belief in climate change but behave like climate policy is a nice-to-have.

Downvoters: How are the Democratic reconciliation bill's climate provisions up to the challenge of tackling climate change? Why is climate change a middling priority on the agenda? Or is it all just okay because the Republicans are worse (i.e., we shouldn't let Democratic failure to address climate change distract from the more important work of blaming-Republicans-as-sport)?

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#254

Post by derriz »

hotz wrote: post #90
lmilcin wrote: post #8

Who still believes global warming does not exist? I am currently listening to audiobook of Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six (1998). It has a paragraph on global warming and trying to convince POTUS it is real. And POTUS not wanting to act on it because it would be too large economic drag on US. This book is almost quarter of century old.

Maybe if the cost of it was reasonable more people would bother. With the cost of electricity rising, people naturally buy/replace appliances with more efficient versions. The fact that anything green related costs an arm and a leg makes some people think it's all a money making scheme. The more renewable energy gets installed the more articles like this pop up. We get it, people are worried about the climate, pushin…

Except electricity costs are not rising - renewables are having the opposite effect actually. For example, in Europe, in the last ten years, wholesale electricity prices have on average nearly halved despite the four-fold increase in the contribution from renewables. Renewables are cheaper and better for the environment - just check out the LCOE numbers and capacity factors.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#255

Post by testfoobar »

cryptoz wrote: post #78
adam12 wrote: post #50

The current administration has approved more than 2,000 new fracking permits. I'm so glad the US has rejoined the Paris Agreement. "Meet the new boss Same as the old boss"

I am very left, and despise Biden's refusal to address climate change where it counts, like fraking. But honestly, the new boss is not the same as the old boss, even with climate change. The new boss does in fact acknowledge it exists, rather than insisting that all climate change is a hoax and it is invented by China to hurt the US. Biden is not making the progress I'd like to see, but he is in no way as bad as the…

Actions matter. Narratives are often used as palliatives. Demand real change.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#256

Post by jacquesm »

SigmundA wrote: post #220
pessimizer wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a severely underestimated group of religious people who think that only God controls the weather, His reasons for what he does with it are not for you to evaluate, and that saying that humans can change the weather is blasphemy. It's easy to make fun of, but the most direct experience that people have of a God who controls the universe would be the weather. These people need to be approached theologically; s…

I have never been able to get my head around the religious paradox of God has a plan and free will. Can we make choices that effect the outcome of things or is it all part of Gods plan? It can't be both right? Did God create everything including free will or does it exist outside of his control? I don't blame my program when it does something wrong, I mean I wrote the code that tells it how to behave.

It is extremely hard for people who are working on facts based stuff to get their heads wrapped around people who are religious, let alone those who are religious and who are working on facts based stuff at the same time (there are plenty of those). Suffice to say that it is very well possible to have different 'modes' of operations, where one moment you are fact based and the next you are belief based. So when you are busy with your fact based work you may see 'the hand of god' in the beauty before you, only to see yourself as part of gods plan in your discoveries and your work.

To a person in that position there is no apparent contradiction, to an atheist there may be but they are not in that position themselves so lack a frame of reference that would allow them to appreciate this and to see that it actually isn't a problem.

--

So in the end it boils down to something like this:

"God has a plan, that plan is for you to have free will. You may question your ability to choose, you may believe that you have or do not have free will and yet even if you act against Gods plan that too is part of the plan".

This may sound like nonsense but to a religious person it assuredly isn't. Source of this very much abbreviated conversation, my grandmother, long since deceased with whom I had some interesting conversations on the subject (me: atheist, she: devout catholic).

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#257

Post by shepherdjerred »

SigmundA wrote: post #220
pessimizer wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a severely underestimated group of religious people who think that only God controls the weather, His reasons for what he does with it are not for you to evaluate, and that saying that humans can change the weather is blasphemy. It's easy to make fun of, but the most direct experience that people have of a God who controls the universe would be the weather. These people need to be approached theologically; s…

I have never been able to get my head around the religious paradox of God has a plan and free will. Can we make choices that effect the outcome of things or is it all part of Gods plan? It can't be both right? Did God create everything including free will or does it exist outside of his control? I don't blame my program when it does something wrong, I mean I wrote the code that tells it how to behave.

It’s a really hard thing to reconcile. I struggled with it for a long time. My perspective as a Christian is that God is all knowing and all powerful. He does have a plan (and that plan is often not what I want). I can allow God to act through me via the Holy Spirit. I still have free will, but I choose to use that free will to be God’s instrument.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that all of my actions are “blessed” by God, or that I don’t sin, but it means that I can be a conduit for his plan if he needs me.

It’s not a perfect explanation. Religion is built on faith. If something can be proven then you don’t need faith. That’s kinda a squirmy imperfect answer, but that’s all I got :)

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#258

Post by knownjorbist »

throwitaway1235 wrote: post #208

What year does NOAA choose as the beginning for "record"? It's relevant to the discussion. Earth is 4.5 billion years old. Humans have existed for 200,000 years. This all comes off as political or quasi-religious because I can assure you that the author knows average people will read that headline and assume "begining of time". Hence I call bullshit.

What matters is the climate equilibrium that we and the ecosystems we depend on evolved under. Most of Earth's history would be totally uninhabitable for humans ourselves, nevermind those ecosystems. Using the argument of the total time that Earth has existed or previous climate fluctuations totally misses the point.

It doesn't matter what happened millennia ago, what matters is how rapidly things are changing now.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#259

Post by noobly »

eloff wrote: post #74
edgyquant wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To play devils advocate, they could say that they would need to zoom out to a couple thousands years to be sure or (I’ve actually heard this one) that it is a coincidence that temperatures picked up after the industrial revolution since the little ice age ended around the same time.

We've done that though. The climate stayed in a narrow 1 degree Celsius range since the end of the last ice age. It's likely that very stability that allowed agriculture and civilization to flourish. That epoch is called the Holocene. We've left that now and entered a new era. The Anthropocine, where the major driver in the climate is now us.

From what I understand, the sun has also been getting hotter, hasn't it? I agree that man contributes to climate change, but quantifying this is where I think the conversation gets interesting. I haven't really gone very far down this hole though as it seems too muddled. And then if you do conclude man is primarily at fault, what do you do? The US is only responsible for so much output, for example, and sources like nuclear aren't viewed positively.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#260

Post by qorrect »

titzer wrote: post #213
lordnacho wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just ordinary stupid people. I've known people with advanced degrees who ostensibly make a living making predictions who don't believe it. Sometimes their arguments get very very intricate. There's just so many layers to the onion it's impossible to do in a conversation, rather than say an essay. Other friends have CS degrees and don't believe it either. It's particularly hard because there's a lot of little…

> Other friends have CS degrees and don't believe it either. I have three CS degrees. Our field has a real problem with hubris and reinterpreting everything through a CS lens, particularly assuming everything is discrete, falls into neat categories, and is not subject to noise. I had a decade long debate with a friend from Chemical Engineering about whether the Universe was continuous or discrete, and also about whet…

> the Universe was continuous or discrete

It's both and neither at the same time.

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