3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits • Hacker News Board

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#251

Post by nopinsight » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

mdorazio wrote: post #211

nopinsight wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A key determiner is who invents an effective treatment and vaccine first. Many bright young minds globally are paying great attention to Covid-19. If it happens in a country, possibly US, East Asia, or Europe, then the institutions of higher learning in the country would gain immediate prestige. (Pretty sure some teams in China have set its sight on this.) If it happens in East Asia, that would also be a recognition…

I agree with the last part of your statement, but not the first. By the time an effective vaccine is developed and run through human trials, most of the population will already have gotten Covid, so it's not likely to be a savior moment. Additionally, given how many vaccine candidates are already in the pipeline, it's pretty likely there will be multiple options approved within a few months of each other. On a relate…

Many countries, esp in East Asia, have slowed COVID spread down a great deal. Vaccines will likely be invented before it penetrates the populations there. They are among the largest groups of graduate students, ie key research workforce, in the US.

If a vaccine developed in East Asia is either cheaper, more scalable, or more effective, increased self-confidence would mean many top students will choose to pursue graduate studies at home instead of the US. This is in addition to fear of being discriminated against because of the pandemic.

Given the number of top people in East Asia with strong quantitative skills, it would significantly shift research momentum to the east.

https://www.oecd.org/pisa/PISA-results_ENGLISH.png

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#252

Post by newhotelowner » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:32 PM UTC

big_chungus wrote: post #62

For this not to bankrupt the nation and retard our growth for the next twenty-five years, we need to all go back to work, today. Even if coronavirus kills a million people, the rest will probably be fine in the long term. If we shut down the economy, three hundred million will be affected. This "flattening the curve" business is clearly not worth it. You cannot shut the economy. There is only so much we can borrow. T…

> The fed is buying debt right and left, and the government surely doesn't want to borrow money and remove that liquidity.

That's why the tax cut was a bad idea. It should have been a tax increase. We should be saving more in good times so that we have enough for the downturn.

If we had a safety net - like UBI, we wouldn't be spending 2 trillion.

Its time for UBI & some wealth distribution for proper prosperity and growth.

I paid $14 in federal taxes for every $100 I made in 2019. I am in top 1% earners in my state and nationwide. That is just ridiculous.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#253

Post by tathougies » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:32 PM UTC

op03 wrote: post #143

wil421 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business…

Things stop all the time. You just need to find the right event for comparison. In this case probably the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami or the 2011 East Japan Earthquake (Tsunami, Fukushima Nuke plant etc)

So they don't stop all the time. Those events you gave did not cause 3 billion people to be forced to stay at home. A tsunami or earthquake is isolated to a particular place. It may affect a few million. This is a different order of magnitude

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#254

Post by zaroth » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:33 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #161

ian0 wrote: post #85

How is our social system so fragile? I mean seriously - thousands of years and wireless comms and rockets to the moon and not only do we forget to prepare for a virus (something that had happened routinely throughout our history) but when it hits and people have to stay at home for a few weeks the economy falls down and leaves millions of people who want to work unable to do so.

It's just the consequence of market economy. Everyone is under pressure to "cut out fat", make themselves "lean". That applies everywhere across the supply chain. First thing that goes is every redundancy, buffer and spare capacity - things that would mitigate a crisis like this. It's because the companies that "cut out fat" can grow faster, sell cheaper and profit more, compared to their competitors that have risk h…

Have you considered what the cost of adding these “mandated buffers and redundancies” to the overall economy? Have you attempted to integrate these costs over time when there isn’t a pandemic going on, and made any attempt to determine the net effect?

Have you considered that you can’t start a small business with buffers and redundancies? And that small business accounts for 50% of overall employment?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#255

Post by tibbydudeza » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:34 PM UTC

sciencewolf wrote: post #218

pc86 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2008 took months to unravel because of the nature of the crisis. Foreclosure is a process and in some areas can take up to 6 months or more from the time you stop paying your mortgage. Here we had state governments practically shutting down their economies overnight. Overnight, every restaurant in my state was no longer allowed to have dine in. Only maybe half in my local area stayed open for carryout, and at least 8…

This is huge. It may be a months of jobless claims compacted into a week.

Also the knockon effect on landlords ... many bossiness want some sort of rental relief or those with limited cash flow are saying they are not going to pay.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#256

Post by HappySweeney » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:34 PM UTC

scottLobster wrote: post #81

sundaeofshock wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? There were a number of submissions yesterday to HN discussing the relative merits of sacrificing millions for the sake of the market. Perhaps you missed those?

Not sure if this was your intent, but "sacrificing millions for the sake of the Market" sounds like you're trying to shift away from the point that right now about 3.28 million more folks (probably more) are wondering how to pay their rent/mortgages and feed their children. If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic. But nah, the "mark…

> If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic.

Seeing that doing nothing will likely lead to lead to millions of deaths, how would the lockdown possibly kill more than that? Are you under the impression people will just willingly starve to death, or that fighting over food will get so bad that millions of people will die?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#257

Post by JMTQp8lwXL » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:34 PM UTC

nck4222 wrote: post #208

stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

>4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment since they were not covered prior to the passing of the senate bill last night. You (and others) are probably aware, but worth pointing out that these people still can not currently file for unemployment benefits until the house passes the bill, the senate approves any house amendments…

I'm kind of confused by what it means for a gig worker to become unemployed; specifically the criteria. Is it along the lines of "I normally drive Uber. There are no riders anymore. Therefore, I can't collect income?" I mean, it'd be hard to verify such a statement is fact. A gig worker could just stop logging into Uber, then file an unemployment application. I hope there's an angle to this I'm missing.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#258

Post by generalpass » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:34 PM UTC

throwaway_USD wrote: post #249

generalpass wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone should expect the stock market to thrive off this data today... There are too many huge announcements for anyone to claim they know why the (millions?) of individuals whose actions are reflected in market prices from noise.

>why the (millions?) of individuals whose actions are reflected in market prices from noise. Its not individuals buying, individuals sold to secure cash during this unknown period...it is the corporations themselves buying in bulk now, because they are flush with cash, cut all costs, and have $5.75T in cash coming their way in the form of loans that will not need to be repaid ($1.75T worth) and negative interest loan…

> Its not individuals buying, individuals sold to secure cash during this unknown period...it is the corporations themselves buying in bulk now, because they are flush with cash, cut all costs, and have $5.75T in cash coming their way in the form of loans that will not need to be repaid ($1.75T worth) and negative interest loans ($4T worth). Point is companies will be buying today while they can.

Or maybe they are buying because their factories have been shuddered and they have capital sitting with no other place to put it. Or maybe they are buying because they are worried about inflation and are moving out into a better asset class for the condition. Or...

I realize there is some redundancy there from yours, but even "only" large investors acting (which, itself, seems an assumption) there are still far too many to claim to know their individual justifications.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#259

Post by RandomBacon » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:35 PM UTC

op03 wrote: post #143

wil421 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business…

Things stop all the time. You just need to find the right event for comparison. In this case probably the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami or the 2011 East Japan Earthquake (Tsunami, Fukushima Nuke plant etc)

Everyone can go right back to work after the event is over in a few minutes.

This more comparable to a nuclear bomb where the area is still radioactive and people cannot go back without PPE.

Edit: and like another reply said, this isn't local, so it's more like multiple nuclear bombs in multiple countries across the globe.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#260

Post by tathougies » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 2:37 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #181

scottLobster wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if this was your intent, but "sacrificing millions for the sake of the Market" sounds like you're trying to shift away from the point that right now about 3.28 million more folks (probably more) are wondering how to pay their rent/mortgages and feed their children. If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic. But nah, the "mark…

This is where it's very important to distinguish between financial conditions and material conditions. Feeding children and supplying respirators and masks are material conditions, dependent on the production and distribution systems. Paying rent and mortgage, on the other hand, isn't material . If you don't pay it nothing material changes - it's not an iron law of the world in the way that hunger is, evictions are a…

Mortgages and by extension rent provide liquid funds to banks so that account holders, including essential business's like hospitals, farmers, and factories can pay their employees and bills.

You are delusional to think it is possible to suspend payments without printing massive amounts of money that will certainly lead to more death.