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The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

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Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#251
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a plethora of tax breaks and deductions related to children that you can claim. Besides that, the people who don't have kids are subsidizing the education of yours through their taxes. Regarding social security, I'm fairly confident the system will collapse before I see a penny of what I'm paying in.

Why? How old are you? Current forecast is that 80% of benefits are funded, as of 2035. Even if the funding ration continues to decline, as long seniors don't vote themselves out of Social Security, there will still be a pot of revenue from younger working people. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html

Assuming I retire at 65, which is pretty much guaranteed not to happen based on economic factors as well as rising retirement age it will be around 2060, 30 years after people are projected to lose 25% of their benefits.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#252
post #97
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the same for men, too. I had everything set up to retire at 35... then I married. Sure, I am a more socially productive person now. My kid will someday pay taxes that will finance the retirement of people that didn't bother to have kids.

We were on track to retire comfortably by 55 without even trying very hard, 45-50 with some effort, without even FAANG money or any sudden jumps in income. Three kids starting just before age 30 and now retirement ever is... iffy, and it's probably not going to be very comfortable if it does happen. They're really expensive. Mostly healthcare, child care, and housing (more space, but also need good schools, so pricie…

Good schools are more about the parents than location. We opted our kid into the poorest school in the city: the one where many of the students speak Spanish at home so they made it a dual language immersion school. The school administrators were shocked when we said we didn't want to waste our time applying for the subsidized lunch program (It would probably be cheaper to give every kid a free lunch than process the paper work for those who qualify)

Those poor kids are just like every other kid in the world - other than they lack money. Their parents love them, and the best for them. What they define as best might not match my definition, but they want the best for them. And my son is well on his way to a second language, something that will be useful - in our opinion.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2-4 are great examples of survivorship bias. For every success story with those traits are thousands of failures. If Bill Gates had been born and raised in Ruanda, you wouldn't know his name today. Same IQ, same hustler. But no parents with connections, no upbringing devoid of war and violence. It's just like in sports. Usain Bolt is not the fastest man alive. He is the fastest professional runner. Within a sample se…

> This is why the slogan "Billionaires should not exist" is not without merit. A net worth of 100mil still means generational wealth. But once you're in the billions, the gap to all the other employees in your company becomes just crazy - but none of the billions would have been possible without their labor. On the other hand, suppose you employ 30,000 people each with 10,000 in savings from working at your company.…

You are arguing against the article.

If Bill Gates didn't exist we could all easily be using Osbournes instead of PCs, or something equivalent would have occurred.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genghis Khan was exiled and had nothing by age nine. At the time of his death he left the biggest land empire the world has ever seen to his children. You need very little of 1 to make a difference

His campaigns also contributed to something like 60+ million deaths[1]. Maybe the Hitler of his time? In his case, perhaps everyone who got in his way simply didn't have any luck. [1] https://www.scifacts.net/human/genghis-khan-death-toll/

That is also an impressive achievement considering the technology and logistics he had available from a certain perspective

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#256
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We were on track to retire comfortably by 55 without even trying very hard, 45-50 with some effort, without even FAANG money or any sudden jumps in income. Three kids starting just before age 30 and now retirement ever is... iffy, and it's probably not going to be very comfortable if it does happen. They're really expensive. Mostly healthcare, child care, and housing (more space, but also need good schools, so pricie…

Same boat. I’m 48 and could retire right this minute, but looming college expenses, and health insurance, are hanging by a chain on my ankle.

Wouldn't it make sense to "retire", start a business and teach your children how to take over and run it instead of worry and invest in their "education"? If it is profitable and succeeds they can get their education in whatever they wish without breaking your bank or going to college before they are sure what they enjoy.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#257
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't know that though. They could have just worked somewhere else and earned as much. It's not like you're creating money out of thin air.

>It's not like you're creating money out of thin air. No, but money (and value) is created out of ideas, of labor, and adding value to products. When an IPO happens, for example, and a company owner holding 50% of the company is suddenly valued at $20B, that value did not come from taking $20B from other people. It's the value of the company. It is value simply created out of thin air, that didn't exist before. If th…

When an IPO happens, for example, and a company owner holding 50% of the company is suddenly valued at $20B, that value did not come from taking $20B from other people.

Unless you were the first to market in a completely new field, it's very possible that some of a firm's worth comes from gaining market share from existing players. That's the whole 'disruption' effect. This might be more economically efficient from one perspective, but that's not necessarily better - both because perfectly efficient systems lack slack, and because people are bad at valuing things.

So take Amazon back when it specialized in selling books. Good part - Amazon has pretty much any book you want, yay. Bad part - it kills brick-and-mortar bookstores. even today, while I'll go to Amazon for a specific book I want, I'll usually wait until I've looked around some other bookstores first. Not only do I like the chance discovery of books I might not otherwise have picked up in bookstores, I like bookstores themselves, especially used bookstores. And I don't like the fact that there are not as many bookstores as there used to be.

And saying the employees could have just worked somewhere else is shuffling the truth - to have somewhere to work, someone has to start a company, which often takes significant money and risk to begin with

So what? Make co-op financing better, figure out a tired grant system for allocating startup capital from a public pool. You're just underlining the article's hypothesis - rich people often get that way because they start out with or have access to more capital than others of equal or greater ability, rather than through any inherent virtue.

In a previous life where I worked at a boutique computer supplier, I got a client who was running a small stock market research/analysis business with only a few employees, and needed high power workstations. I'm not a big people person, and I was looking at his operation and thinking that I'd prefer it to what I was doing, and (from seeing his work product and helping him get going technically) that it was well within my capabilities. So I put in a bit of extra effort to get friendly with him and to figure out how he got his operation off the ground. Turned out his dad was an investment banker and had given him a million $ to set up (at a time when that was a much more significant investment than it is now). I also learned that his biggest obstacle was not his competitors but the chip he had on his shoulder about how his brother was the favorite son and had been given $10 million.

That was the day I realized that wealth isn't a meritocracy.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

> You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. if you workout and are in the best shape your genes can provide, you will be more lucky when meeting people and more interesting people will be interested on you. That would be 3, not 1. And if you have a good conversation and go out every day, you will also have more chance…

If you have, for example, chronic fatigue you will struggle to work out. That would be 4 constraining 3. And if you have significant social anxiety, or are bedridden with illness, or various other health limitations you will struggle to have a good conversation and go out every day. That would be 4 constraining 2.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

having a certain level of wealth throws you into a world where everyone wants a piece of you, friendships become very difficult because are they friends or are they just after some money? I've never been rich. Most so-called "friends" have wanted something from me while having little or nothing to offer me in return. This became crystal clear while I was homeless for years. People continued to want something for me,…

This is a good point. However, if you insert yourself among people who all have a certain level of material comfort to lack material ambition, it is much, much easier to forge authentic relationships. The prevailing social aim becomes to experience joy, learn interesting things, and grow as a person. Of course, this dynamic is still rare. Even when people aren't fighting for money, there's still an urge to fight for…

My mother's mother came from a low level German noble family. She was a full-time military wife for a lot of years, as was I.

My life mostly worked when I was a military wife, but a lot of the values I was raised with only really work if you are in a position that involves a. Responsibility for a larger community and b. Somehow provides for you so you can look out for other people.

Looking out for other people is a real skill, but it doesn't automatically come back to you. Many people feel zero obligation to do anything in return for you when you do something for them and this seems compounded by being a woman. "Social contract" seems like an alien concept for far too many people.

I think I could do good things in an urban planning or economic development type role. That would sort of be the modern equivalent of what European nobility did.

Historically, merchants had a terrible reputation because they just wanted money and felt no obligation to the community. So it was socially problematic for wealth to be controlled by rich merchants rather than nobility. The nobility were beholden to the lower classes and held responsible for using their privilege to serve society by filling roles that required a certain level of privilege and education.

This is why our legal system uses the term "court," which is the same word used for audiences held by the nobility. Originally, nobility heard and settled complaints amongst the townspeople "at court."

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I’m remembering your previous posts correctly, you’re quite aware that mental health is absolutely a part of this. Yes. I do a poor job of making that clear because I feel so strongly that physical health and mental health cannot be neatly separated. "A sound mind in a sound body." To me, (a lack of) "passion, willpower, and consistency" really sounds like someone with low energy due to a hidden health issue. I wa…

Wow, that sounds like me! Do you mind sharing what the genetic disorder was? Or how you get tested for it in the first place? I have a feeling that if I asked my doctor about laziness, they would refer me to a therapist instead.

You could request a sweat chloride exam. If it comes back with some weird result, you can email me.

But the odds are rather poor that you have what I have.

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