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The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

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Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#61
You can look at it two ways.

First. You had an idea and went with that one that worked out, that’s luck. Also luckily, you had the physical, mental and monetary capacity to follow through with it, is lucky to have these resources.

Second way to look at it. You were smart to reject many ideas because you had the experience and smarts to say no to non-sense. Also you had the grit and persistence to grind it out despite all the challenges.

Ok which way was it?

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#62
https://twitter.com/MichaelJFoody/status/1022521010078273536

>it says a lot that when confronted with an objectively dumb rich dude like trump (no working memory, can't apply grammar consistently, childish vocabulary, shallow concepts) people will choose to believe he's secretly smart rather than that wealth isn't a result of intellect

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#63
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

> You don't choose your genes I agree with this one. > or where you are born Not really agree with this, you can change the country you live in. And it's more important where you live not where you are born. For example lots of people from poor countries go to US or Europe and are quite successful there. > 2,3 can be reduced to 1. Don't agree either. Let's be realistic, what are the chances of success for a person wh…

I couldn't get a visa to work in the USA even if I wanted one. My right to work in Europe is about to be taken away and replaced with... something. I don't know what other countries I can work in but there'd be visa requirements for most of them.

I could change country if I tried really hard but it isn't straightforward. And I'm an very experienced frontend dev. Other people would find it harder.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#65
post #51

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

Next time just say: "I am a millionaire, and more. My kids are worth more than I could have imagined"

Right. Once you figure out there are more columns in the life-ledger than cash, decisions change. To the bafflement of folks that haven't figured it out yet.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#66
post #26

Even more luck is required with the way a lot of people on this site are trying to get rich (startups). Want to require less luck? Open some kind of store/service yourself and it'll pay off faster than investing in a startup most likely. A friend of mine runs a shipping office, single location. Not a giant or complicated business with 99.999% uptime. He always has much nicer race cars too.... :)

What percentage of the population can do so financially?

That's a good point. Have to risk debt at that point.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#67
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2-4 are great examples of survivorship bias. For every success story with those traits are thousands of failures. If Bill Gates had been born and raised in Ruanda, you wouldn't know his name today. Same IQ, same hustler. But no parents with connections, no upbringing devoid of war and violence. It's just like in sports. Usain Bolt is not the fastest man alive. He is the fastest professional runner. Within a sample se…

You’re looking at it way to black and white. I would bet if Gates had been born in Rwanda, he would have stood a good chance of being successful there, better than average.

Not really.

When I was a teenager we hosted at our home kids running from Rwanda , my mom was working in an hospital that cured them, doing the best possible for kids (kids!) with arms or legs amputated or a big part of their skull chopped off with a machete.

You're assuming Gates had probably more chances when the chances weren't there to begin with.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#68
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

> You don't choose your genes I agree with this one. > or where you are born Not really agree with this, you can change the country you live in. And it's more important where you live not where you are born. For example lots of people from poor countries go to US or Europe and are quite successful there. > 2,3 can be reduced to 1. Don't agree either. Let's be realistic, what are the chances of success for a person wh…

>Let's be realistic, what are the chances of success for a person who stays at home watch movies vs. someone who go out talk with people get involved in all sorts of activities + prepare the homework for those social events.

Probability of success depends what environment you are in. A person with poor uneducated and possibly negligent parents living in a slum with no network has a very different probability of "success" than a person with well educated, well connected, and rich parents.

Even they are able to see that perhaps instead of a minute chance of success on par with winning the lottery, perhaps they ought to spend the present enjoying a movie. Many times, not being around the right people and environment leaves you in the dark about opportunities in the first place. I'm not saying that one should despair and sit at home watching movies, but it can be rational to feel that way. We need to do better as a society to even out the odds.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#69
post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

Genghis Khan was exiled and had nothing by age nine. At the time of his death he left the biggest land empire the world has ever seen to his children. You need very little of 1 to make a difference
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