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Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

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Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#251

Post by raven105x »

coryfklein wrote: post #223
inputcoffee wrote: post #71

The true price of solar is the price to produce reliable, continuous energy. That requires something to smooth out the signal and store the energy, most probably a battery. The solar + battery price is also going down, though not as fast as the solar only piece. But that's the metric we should be following. When that hits $30 per MWh, it'll be game over.

Agreed. Without some alternative form of energy in the morning and evening we may have already reached the saturation point of solar energy. See the Duck curve [1]. Once the heavily regulated energy market has time to adjust to market conditions you are going to see this energy surplus during the day being adjusted for. Where solar panels make economic sense today they may not tomorrow when energy prices for mid-day…

Prices will not plummet due to oversupply, they will increase as demand decreases to increase profitability. Electricity prices reflect only one thing: how high they can be while still being "affordable". Even now, in most major cities, residential pricing is 10x-50x of business/industrial pricing ...in the same zip code. The cost of production of electricity is almost enitely irrelevant to its' pricing.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#252

Post by woodandsteel »

inputcoffee wrote: post #71

The true price of solar is the price to produce reliable, continuous energy. That requires something to smooth out the signal and store the energy, most probably a battery. The solar + battery price is also going down, though not as fast as the solar only piece. But that's the metric we should be following. When that hits $30 per MWh, it'll be game over.

If you had actually read the article, you would have discovered that many of the projects covered in the Nevada auction included batteries.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#253

Post by refulgentis »

criddell wrote: post #211
refulgentis wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sun goes down at night

And? I'm still connected to the grid.

You're replying to a comment about the true cost of solar being the battery + the panels, asking why anyone would think of buying a battery.

That's why.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#254

Post by gibybo »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #238
gibybo wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your numbers are pretty optimistic. You're neglecting depreciation for one. Panels have a lifetime in the range of 20-30 years, inverters have a lifetime in the range of 10 years. 4% is also an optimistic interest rate for a loan that lasts the lifetime of the system. You may be able to get that for a ~5 year loan, but then you need to include the higher opportunity cost of the money that was used to pay that…

ROI for cash invested in your solar install is greater than 4% in almost every state.

I didn't say it wasn't. We're talking about the cost per kWh which depends on the interest rate that you can finance it with, not your ROI.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#255

Post by gibybo »

aoeusnth1 wrote: post #244
gibybo wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your numbers are pretty optimistic. You're neglecting depreciation for one. Panels have a lifetime in the range of 20-30 years, inverters have a lifetime in the range of 10 years. 4% is also an optimistic interest rate for a loan that lasts the lifetime of the system. You may be able to get that for a ~5 year loan, but then you need to include the higher opportunity cost of the money that was used to pay that…

The cost of the system includes buying a new one in 30yr. I didn’t include deprecation of the panel, but modern panels such as Sunpower or Panasonic degrade at around 8% over 25 years, so maybe add a multiplier if 1/.92 to the cost to fudge that in. As for the 4% interest rate, which in this case is really a time value of money discount rate, I’m comparing it to mortgage loan amounts (which is pretty much the average…

I don't se how it includes the cost of a new system in 30 years. 2.3 * 30,000 = $69,000 and your cost listed is only ~$59k. 8% over 25 years is much better than I thought for the panels, but you still need to include about 10%/year depreciation on the inverters since you'll need to replace them every 10 years or so (at least that was about their lifetime last time I checked in Arizona, it may be different in cooler climates)

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#256

Post by xahrepap »

Alex3917 wrote: post #83
xahrepap wrote: post #45

Slightly off topic... Interesting thing about solar in Utah (maybe everywhere? Not sure about the specifics): Utah gives every land owner pollution credits. They're allowed to pollute X units worth per year or something like that. Depending on certain criteria you're allotted a certain amount of credits. The problem is, these credits are transferable. So if I, for example, don't pollute, I can sell my credits off to…

> since he sold off his pollution credits, his solar purchase has authorized someone else to pollute for him. Netting us nothing in the end. You're forgetting the 'cap' part of cap-and-trade. The point is minimize the cost of reducing the total amount of greenhouse gas (or whatever) pollution across society. The reason for allowing people to sell their credits is that it reduces the economic cost of reducing pollutio…

Thanks for the explanation. You're right. I wasn't aware of the full system. The parts I did know seemed like a shady loophole for bigger polluters to take advantage of.

Thanks!

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#257

Post by xahrepap »

hathawsh wrote: post #133
ac29 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps its this? https://deq.utah.gov/air-quality/emission-credits-offset-reg...

That does look like the right info. I think Utah has a typical emission credit program. Maybe xahrepap was overstating the case when (s)he suggested that every Utah land owner has emission credits they can sell. Emission credits seem to be limited to certain large businesses.

Not sure on all the details. Maybe it's only certain power companies. I know this did apply to a relative who was a home-owner in a city that generated it's own power, so maybe they have their own program different than normal. He was telling me about it when he looked into some of the fine print from solar salesman.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#258

Post by aoeusnth1 »

gibybo wrote: post #255
aoeusnth1 wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of the system includes buying a new one in 30yr. I didn’t include deprecation of the panel, but modern panels such as Sunpower or Panasonic degrade at around 8% over 25 years, so maybe add a multiplier if 1/.92 to the cost to fudge that in. As for the 4% interest rate, which in this case is really a time value of money discount rate, I’m comparing it to mortgage loan amounts (which is pretty much the average…

I don't se how it includes the cost of a new system in 30 years. 2.3 * 30,000 = $69,000 and your cost listed is only ~$59k. 8% over 25 years is much better than I thought for the panels, but you still need to include about 10%/year depreciation on the inverters since you'll need to replace them every 10 years or so (at least that was about their lifetime last time I checked in Arizona, it may be different in cooler c…

I'm including the 30% tax rebate and assuming solar panel installations will be 50% cheaper in 30 years which is pretty conservative given their price history.

Microinverters last 25 years.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#259

Post by maxerickson »

coryfklein wrote: post #223
inputcoffee wrote: post #71

The true price of solar is the price to produce reliable, continuous energy. That requires something to smooth out the signal and store the energy, most probably a battery. The solar + battery price is also going down, though not as fast as the solar only piece. But that's the metric we should be following. When that hits $30 per MWh, it'll be game over.

Agreed. Without some alternative form of energy in the morning and evening we may have already reached the saturation point of solar energy. See the Duck curve [1]. Once the heavily regulated energy market has time to adjust to market conditions you are going to see this energy surplus during the day being adjusted for. Where solar panels make economic sense today they may not tomorrow when energy prices for mid-day…

Thermal storage is super easy for cooling and can be used to shift the evening load.

Just offer economic incentives to put ac on a timer.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#260

Post by Brakenshire »

coryfklein wrote: post #223
inputcoffee wrote: post #71

The true price of solar is the price to produce reliable, continuous energy. That requires something to smooth out the signal and store the energy, most probably a battery. The solar + battery price is also going down, though not as fast as the solar only piece. But that's the metric we should be following. When that hits $30 per MWh, it'll be game over.

Agreed. Without some alternative form of energy in the morning and evening we may have already reached the saturation point of solar energy. See the Duck curve [1]. Once the heavily regulated energy market has time to adjust to market conditions you are going to see this energy surplus during the day being adjusted for. Where solar panels make economic sense today they may not tomorrow when energy prices for mid-day…

Energy prices plummeting in the middle of the day creates an enormous economic incentive for energy storage or demand shifting, which in turn makes energy in the middle of the day more valuable.
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