BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#251

Post by nil_is_me » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 1:30 AM UTC

devy wrote: post #143

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

BMW is one of the most progressive major auto maker in the world today. This news is not news at all and was in line with previous announcements on BMW i-series, which is the only current BMW line up that contains fully electric vehicles. Mass making electric vehicles at the same being profitable is HARD given the current technology status quo, yet crucial for any auto maker want to be in the game long term. By 2025,…

"By 2020" -> "By 2025" -> "By 2030". It's all vaporware marketing announcements meant to gloss over the fact that the only pure EV they currently sell is the laughable i3.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#252

Post by erikpukinskis » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 1:39 AM UTC

itp wrote: post #163

philwelch wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As Musk said, technology doesn't advance as a function of time but as a function of R&D investment. Sometimes. Technology is very path-dependent; to invent z, you need to have invented w, x, and y first. And even with infinite resources that takes time. We’ve been working on fusion for half a century and it might be ready in another half century. Will more investment help? Yeah, but tokamaks take time to build, and…

Without necessarily (or completely) disagreeing, I'm curious if you can further justify your assertion of the strong path-dependency. I am personally amazed when I contemplate the Apollo program or the Manhattan Project, and specifically the number of technologies that did not exist at the time. It strikes me that there's a clear observational bias here. Particularly in the modern era, we really only have a single da…

What would be the point of pursuing fusion? We don’t even have the political will to deploy fission.

Funding a fusion program would be like buying a car while your license is suspended.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#253

Post by mirimir » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 1:48 AM UTC

reubenswartz wrote: post #166

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

> Meanwhile, the Kindle is better as an e-reader because they started from the ground up.

I bought one of the first gen Kindles. And discovered that it wouldn't display PDFs. Unless you uploaded them to Amazon, and converted them somehow. But, given that these were confidential PDFs, that was unworkable. So I returned it.

But damn, a Linux-based reader would have been very cool.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#254

Post by ams6110 » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 1:52 AM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #160

ecpottinger wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but that does not ring true to me. I used to work on the assembly at a GM truck plant, and one of the amazing things was the range of different units that came down the line. I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line. Also by that logic there should be no Nissan Leaf. Last but not least, if BMW waits too long they…

BMW is in a pickle because there is a good chance their premium pricing advantage is going to up and disappear with the shift to electrics. BMW has a customer base that loves their esthetics and brando and ignores the very high cost of ownership. Shift to electric and the esthetic and brando go out the window. See Harley Davidson.

What? I don't see how electric versus petroleum drivetrain has any impact on esthetics and brand. People buy BMWs because they want to be seen driving BMWs, or they like the styling and performance. It's the same reason people spend 10 grand on a Leica camera and lenses when a $500 Fuji will do just as well if not better at the actual photography.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#255

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 1:57 AM UTC

sweden wrote: post #159

kickopotomus wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is not proof of that. Tesla is an EV company from the ground up. They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. Moreover, car companies do not have "infinite cash reserves". Retooling factories for EV production is an expensive undertaking. Combined with the expense of lithium cells and supply issues, it's not a simple or cheap task.

Tesla had to raise a lot of money from investors to keep the business afloat. In 2017 alone, they had to raise a debt of $2bn to keep their cash reserves alive so that they could continue investing on their products. Volkswagen, on the other hand, had a revenue of $230bn in 2017 alone. It doesn't seem to me that money is a problem for the already established car manufacturers. And looking at Tesla's finances, startin…

[deleted]

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#256

Post by ams6110 » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 1:59 AM UTC

odammit wrote: post #141

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

Sure, I’ve owned multiple Volts, and I’ll keep buying them because they’re affordable (until a “luxury” car is mostly* electric). I’d love to have a BMW. I’m finally in the bracket I can afford it, but I refuse to own a non-electric vehicle. People want electric vehicles and they want luxury, but Tesla’s are out of the price range for most people (for now). BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the b…

2020 is less than two years away. They will not have missed the boat by any stretch of the imagination. Most people will still be buying petrol cars in 2020.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#257

Post by erikpukinskis » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 2:05 AM UTC

matwood wrote: post #148

odammit wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, I’ve owned multiple Volts, and I’ll keep buying them because they’re affordable (until a “luxury” car is mostly* electric). I’d love to have a BMW. I’m finally in the bracket I can afford it, but I refuse to own a non-electric vehicle. People want electric vehicles and they want luxury, but Tesla’s are out of the price range for most people (for now). BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the b…

Many would also say that Tesla's are only luxury in price. The interiors are not nearly as nice as those from BMW or Mercedes.

Luxury is the wrong word for the segment Tesla is competing in. “Premium” is closer, but still wrong.

“High end” feels a lot closer. A kitchen aid mixer isn’t a luxury item, but it has a good profit margin and people who love mixers will buy it.

Tesla is more like that... there’s no hand stitched Italian leather or whatever, but the software is top of the line, the drivetrain is top of the line, it has unique features that make it a better car, without competing on who can make the prettiest mahogony inlay.

Like, not having to stand at a smelly gas station in your heels and pump your gas is a luxury. But Tesla doesn’t sell you a wall charger with gold accents.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#258

Post by greglindahl » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 2:06 AM UTC

erik_seaberg wrote: post #246

greglindahl wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My apartment complex added a charger, after I nagged them for 3 years. The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed.

Is it reserved? A charger that may or may not be available doesn't solve range anxiety.

It has the chargepoint reservation system, but I'm the admin and it's easy to see that it's not contended enough for anyone to worry.

If I had range anxiety I'd use the 3 nearby Tesla supercharers, or the numerous L2 chargers, including 6 that are 1 block away.

As I said, the future is here, it's just unevenly distributed.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#259

Post by dd36 » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 2:11 AM UTC

mmalone wrote: post #196

reubenswartz wrote: post #166

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because they made a huge bet on hydrogen in the late 90s/early 2000s that didn’t pan out (which is too bad because it probably would have been better and easier to transition to). There will always be nostalgia for the “purity” and raw mechanical feel of older big gas…

https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/auto-executives-battery-elect...

It’s not all conjecture.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#260

Post by kmonsen » Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 2:11 AM UTC

mmalone wrote: post #196

reubenswartz wrote: post #166

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because they made a huge bet on hydrogen in the late 90s/early 2000s that didn’t pan out (which is too bad because it probably would have been better and easier to transition to). There will always be nostalgia for the “purity” and raw mechanical feel of older big gas…

At scale for profit, I'm sure BMW could do it at scale just not for profit. The statement say they do not want to scale up forth generation due to costs. It makes sense, but I hope it will not be too late.