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David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

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Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#241

Post by ozozozd »

filearts wrote: post #198

What I don't understand is that folks take it as a fait accompli that models will be built and released that are fundamentally dangerous and that regulation can and should happen downstream of that. I feel like there hasn't been enough discussion of aligning the incentives of the decision makers with that of the public on BUILDING the models. Right now, agents have committed what would be crimes if there were a human…

What grey area?

Access computer systems in an unauthorized manner and cause damage, you broke the law. There is no “I just wrote the code, the machine did it, I wasn’t watching it” sort of defense.

We don’t get to roll cars downhill and get away with destroying others’ property, right?

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#242

Post by Paradigma11 »

pembrook wrote: post #166
toss1 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your "realism" is [unprintable here]. Worse, it is not reality at all, but believing a false promise from Putin. The ACTUAL realism is to recognize Putin's Russia for what it is: a relentless aggressor who will respect no peace. Putin's Russia has violated EVERY "peace agreement it has ever made. "Peace" in their mind is merely a strategic pause in the conflict to regroup and rearm. The list is extremely long, Chechn…

It sounds like your whole position is again dependent on the west's wishful thinking narratives of this war being true (which it hasn't been thus far). The numbers I cited were purposely in between the Russian numbers of Ukrainian casualties (1.5M, obviously false) and the Ukrainian numbers (100k, obviously undercounted). The Netherlands intelligence service and the CSIS put the number around 500K, which could also b…

You are treating this situation like a game where there has to be a possible good outcome and since the current situation is not good the other move would have been the correct one. That is not a very realistic take.

Ukraine's main chance is to bleed Russia dry and make a future invasion not feasible. That needs a Russian economic breakdown and a 10 year time window to let the Europeans arm Ukraine to the teeth. Russia knows this which is why Russian "diplomatic" proposals have the clear goal to make that future invasion easier. It is Ukraine's war of independence against their former colonial master and we will see how it ends.

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#243

Post by ozozozd »

pembrook wrote: post #65

I don't agree with Sacks always but he's 100% correct here. I heavily use frontier models daily, and quite frankly their capabilities are just not very relevant outside of a narrow subset of software engineering tasks and the production of generic white collar "deliverables." We're many years into $10s of billions of dollars being thrown at coding as a problem space specifically, and its one of the areas with the MOS…

Agreed!

82% number was shocking for me, even though I know they still send snail-mail for basically everything. And things only move when the snail-mail is received!

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#244

Post by webern777 »

simianwords wrote: post #58
dumberquestions wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the technical aspect is true, performance has been growing fairly consistently, but the financial aspect, or more accurately the logistical aspect, is plausible; with competition as fierce as it currently is, for how long can they keep growing at the same pace? People can't afford RAM anymore and datacenter build outs aren't particularly popular, OAI has been doubling compute capacity every 7 months for…

I just find it strange how multiple people throw completely different arguments just to land on same conclusion. Your argument seems to mix a few arguments like: OpenAI has so much demand and it has made so much compute that it is a bad thing (?!). It can't go on (why?) hence the capabilities are stalling (how?). Then you also say that it is too competitive which is a totally different argument to compute. So in this…

They have so much demand because they are giving so much away for free.

I used 76 million sol tokens on Saturday, I have 45% still left on the week and I still have two full resets to use before October. For $20.

I used $61 dollars in Fable 5.1 credits too this weekend because I have to use that up this week. I paid nothing for those besides my $20 a month subscription.

How much would I pay at the actual API price? Nothing. Zero. My demand would drop to zero because I would just use the cheaper alternatives.

If a doughnut shop is giving away free doughnuts 24/7 my demand for doughnuts is going to go way up too. Through the roof actually because I know a doughnut shop can't give away doughnuts forever. Giving away free fancy doughnuts is not a sustainable business model.

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#245

Post by pamcake »

dehrmann wrote: post #144
deagle50 wrote: post #56

I'll go a step further, they aren't just pretending, they are blackmailing the country. The sane response would be "we don't negotiate with terrorists, and you will face criminal and financial penalties for damages caused."

> you will face criminal and financial penalties for damages caused Even with where we're at right now, if people involved with the HF or Ruby Gems attacks faced legal consequences, the industry would get a lot more conservative very quickly. And unlike social media, section 230 doesn't apply, and there aren't any free speech concerns.

The initial HuggingFace post on the incident mentioned that they had reported law enforcement.

Shortly after, Nvidia acquired HF for $12.9B.

No such talk since.

https://huggingface.co/blog/security-incident-july-2026

https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-talks-acquire-hugg...

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#246

Post by bbor »

kennywinker wrote: post #147
bbor wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source? Just "that's a plausible motivation"? Cause that's pretty terrible proof.

You don't need to ask for sources, when what is being said is clearly opinion. The source is the person who posted it.

The choice to teach the "opinion" vs. "fact" heuristic in middle school --and its consequences-- have been a disaster for human discourse

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#247

Post by bbor »

michaelbarton wrote: post #177
bbor wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it's either that or the scientists are right about their field of study. Absolutely shocking and depressing how many people are willing to trust this Capitalist Realism hunch over the world in front of their eyes.

I get your point. There’s a lot hysteria right now. However I think people are willing to trust a capitalist realism hunch because over the last >20 years, that hunch is usually going to be right.

The exact same thing can be said of climate science though, and that one turned out to be very, very real.

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#248

Post by deagle50 »

pamcake wrote: post #245
dehrmann wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you will face criminal and financial penalties for damages caused Even with where we're at right now, if people involved with the HF or Ruby Gems attacks faced legal consequences, the industry would get a lot more conservative very quickly. And unlike social media, section 230 doesn't apply, and there aren't any free speech concerns.

The initial HuggingFace post on the incident mentioned that they had reported law enforcement. Shortly after, Nvidia acquired HF for $12.9B. No such talk since. https://huggingface.co/blog/security-incident-july-2026 https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-talks-acquire-hugg...

coincidence?

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#249

Post by BoxOfRain »

pianopatrick wrote: post #131
dumberquestions wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the technical aspect is true, performance has been growing fairly consistently, but the financial aspect, or more accurately the logistical aspect, is plausible; with competition as fierce as it currently is, for how long can they keep growing at the same pace? People can't afford RAM anymore and datacenter build outs aren't particularly popular, OAI has been doubling compute capacity every 7 months for…

"it's just physically impossible for this to go on for long" I mean, my uneducated guess is that it's probably within the laws of physics for us to have at least 100x as much compute in the world as there is now. There would be a lot of engineering challenges, but I think it's physically possible. If so, OAI could double for at least a few more years.

I can't speak for every country, but I feel the irresistible force of datacentre construction will eventually get mired in the the immovable objects of British NIMBYism and high electricity prices.

I've seen more local opposition to datacentres than anything else, and the fact we have discretionary planning (which can't be abolished for political reasons, despite it amounting to putting economic sanctions on ourselves) means there's a lot of stakeholder vetos in the system.

Re: David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

#250

Post by toss1 »

pembrook wrote: post #234
tacticalturtle wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who were the mainstream voices saying this? My layman definition is it’s the people writing in major newspapers, the people getting paid by CNN to sit in a half circle on their news analysis shows, etc. Is Peter Zeihan “mainstream”? The only time I remember anyone speculating that Russia was in trouble was the short lived Wagner Rebellion - because nothing like it had happened before. But that lasted … two days?

Going on Joe Rogan and having a million YouTube followers is absolutely the modern definition of mainstream. Also you appear to have been living in a different algorithmic bubble. Joe Biden was literally on stage multiple times saying everything I listed. If a democrat US president isnt mainstream, I don’t think your assessment of reality is accurate.

No wonder this account is such a font of idiocy and backwards takes — it considers "Joe Rogan" to be a serious mainstream source of information.

If "mainstream" counts as having lots of viewers, fine.

But no one who is serious about information, especially about geopolitical information would ever mistake a numerous count of viewers for the serious multi-layer vetting and double-checking of information that happened in a serious old-school newsroom, or give them anything like the same kind of credibility.

Yet this account clearly gives such massively biased and uninformed podcasters the kind of credulous belief formerly reserved for the the likes of Chet Huntley and Walter Cronkite, which no longer exists in any newsroom today.

So, a great example of Dunning-Kruger, where the most ignorant spout the most nonsense with the greatest confidence — explains the plethora of nonsense in the posts.

And NO, those were not the narratives of any actual serious reporter or govt figure. I've followed this very closely from before the 2022 invasion; some I'd heard of as remarkably optimistic takes, and some I literally never heard of.

The entire world, including Putin, was stunned Ukraine did not fall in three days. It was pretty much universally accepted that Russia was the second best military in the world. Of course, it was also soon shown that RU was not even the second best military in Ukraine.

Only recently, since the Operation Spiderweb and the 'long-range sanctions' making serious strikes deep inside Russia disabling military targets, oil production & transport, and dual-purpose logistics, and since the RU casualties have exceeded 1000 dead/month and RU started LOSING land, have any serious people started speculating about cracks in RU's ability to continue, and those are still tentative.

Go read the writings of people with ACTUAL knowledge of Russia and Ukraine, such as Garry Kasparov, Bill Browder, Volodomor Zelenskyy, all of whom are on Xitter or Substack, since you get your media from that type of sources.

You get your information from clowns, it is no surprise you post like a clown (no insult meant to professional clowns).

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