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Where is the AI jobs crisis?

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Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#241

Post by 9rx »

wbl wrote: post #188
packetlost wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't recall there being regular, industry-wide layoffs effecting software engineers for basically the entirety of my career up until the last couple of years. I'm sure my memory is bad and there's data to refute that, but this doesn't feel like "normal" at all.

If your career was entirely post GFC you lived through the good times. The GFC and dot com crash were not good.

The GFC wasn't good? It wasn't good for the general economy, sure, but given the specific industry we are talking about that was one of the best times ever. Money was being printed hand over fist building software that did nothing more than emit a fart sound. The opportunities for us with the 'picks and shovels' were endless with everyone trying to strike gold at the App Store gold mine.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#242

Post by woohanhan »

woohanhan wrote: post #207

I am a manager with former FAANG experience followed by mid-size comanies. Most people here saying there is no AI job crisis dont know what they are talking about and talking out of their ass. I know plenty of people looking for job for months at this point. I am looking for 3+ months and have a few leads finally but nowhere close to offer. Remember, people have to live in these high cost GEOs (SF, Seattle, NYC and o…

@BLKNSLVR - What does account creation time have anything to do with my comment? You are demonstrating classical case of logical fallacy.

I have other account but I don't want to post with that or have it banned by censorship king DANG.

If you don't want to believe that is fine but don't make surreptitious accusations.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#243

Post by mvdtnz »

9rx wrote: post #241
wbl wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your career was entirely post GFC you lived through the good times. The GFC and dot com crash were not good.

The GFC wasn't good? It wasn't good for the general economy, sure, but given the specific industry we are talking about that was one of the best times ever. Money was being printed hand over fist building software that did nothing more than emit a fart sound. The opportunities for us with the 'picks and shovels' were endless with everyone trying to strike gold at the App Store gold mine.

The iPhone app store mania is not at all representative of the state of industry as a whole. Most software jobs did not look like this, at all.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#244

Post by 9rx »

heathrow83829 wrote: post #76
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Average weekly and hourly earnings were up in May [1], though “real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted” [2]. Nominal wages being up rejects the hypothesis that folks are being downsized into lower-paying roles. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm [2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

be careful with "real" hourly earnings. if they're using the CPI then it can be very misleading. One need only compare nominal wages vs nominal rents per square foot for the last 50 years to see that actual wages have dropped by 30% and yet the "real" hourly average wage calculated via the CPI is flat, falsly implying that actual wages have not dropped.

Huh? Housing becoming significantly more valuable than in the past[1] does not imply that wages have dropped.

[1] Mostly thanks to computers/software making housing a more compelling proposition. Historically, people couldn't wait to get outside or over to the pub and would allocate their spending to support that, but now that they prefer to stay in to look at screens, they deem that place where they spend time worthy of greater spending instead.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#245

Post by 9rx »

mvdtnz wrote: post #243
9rx wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GFC wasn't good? It wasn't good for the general economy, sure, but given the specific industry we are talking about that was one of the best times ever. Money was being printed hand over fist building software that did nothing more than emit a fart sound. The opportunities for us with the 'picks and shovels' were endless with everyone trying to strike gold at the App Store gold mine.

The iPhone app store mania is not at all representative of the state of industry as a whole. Most software jobs did not look like this, at all.

It is unclear what you mean. It is true that most software jobs were not writing iPhone apps, if that is what you are trying to say, but those were good jobs. Those who didn't have good jobs for a moment were quickly scooped up by investors trying to create the next big app. It was a feeding frenzy out there for tech workers, despite much of the rest of the economy faltering (agriculture also did very well during the GFC, to be fair).

Maybe you are trying to say that there was some grey beard Atari programmer out there who refused to start writing iPhone apps and couldn't find their dream job banging bits on the old 2600? That is likely, but it is equally likely that they never found that job since either.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#246

Post by 9rx »

heathrow83829 wrote: post #121
gruez wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if they're using the CPI then it can be very misleading. One need only compare nominal wages vs nominal rents per square foot for the last 50 years to see that actual wages have dropped by 30% and yet the "real" hourly average wage calculated via the CPI is flat, falsly implying that actual wages have not dropped. Yes, if you get to pick prices of arbitrary items to compare against, it's easy to come to whatever co…

shelter isn't just a cherry picked item. It's by an far the largest spending category, that and healthcare. I couldn't care less about all the other categories, personally.

Remember, CPI exists to attempt to figure out how the value of a currency has changed over time. It's not a cost of living index, a housing cost index, a wellness index, or anything of the sort. It is not trying to measure how you are doing in life. It is not there to determine the value of labour, the value of housing, the value of food, or the value of anything other than currency. It is simply compiled to determine the difference in value between $1 yesterday and $1 today, so to speak. As you can see, you cannot use the currency itself to provide that measurement. $1 and $1 are visibly the same; except we know that $1 and $1 aren't the same over time. That is where CPI steps in.

If you want to understand something else, use the measures and data that are focused on that something else. Right tool for the job and all that.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#247

Post by tayo42 »

wbl wrote: post #188
packetlost wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't recall there being regular, industry-wide layoffs effecting software engineers for basically the entirety of my career up until the last couple of years. I'm sure my memory is bad and there's data to refute that, but this doesn't feel like "normal" at all.

If your career was entirely post GFC you lived through the good times. The GFC and dot com crash were not good.

Nearly 20 years then...

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#248

Post by wbl »

9rx wrote: post #241
wbl wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your career was entirely post GFC you lived through the good times. The GFC and dot com crash were not good.

The GFC wasn't good? It wasn't good for the general economy, sure, but given the specific industry we are talking about that was one of the best times ever. Money was being printed hand over fist building software that did nothing more than emit a fart sound. The opportunities for us with the 'picks and shovels' were endless with everyone trying to strike gold at the App Store gold mine.

It took a bit for the VC world to heat up and a lot of big companies had laid people off.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#249

Post by tayo42 »

james_marks wrote: post #162
sp1982 wrote: post #30

I run a job search site and I don't see a crisis in terms of job openings even for SWE - but there is very clear signal that AI is deeply getting embedded in every SWE job. https://corvi.careers/blog/global_software-engineering_jobs_...

In the news I hear about tech layoffs, but I am having a difficult time trying to hire high quality senior SWE's. Perhaps it's not the senior's that were hit by the layoffs, or I'm just looking in the wrong places. The big job sites feel rife with unqualified applicants and outright fraud, leaving me frankly unsure how to proceed. It feels like a crisis of candidates-to-job-openings matching, and AI has made it much…

Is your job remote friendly and what's the pay?

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#250

Post by ubercore »

epolanski wrote: post #197
ubercore wrote: post #137

The jobs AI crisis is me being stressed and overworked as management demands more AI, showy (but shallow) "look I made a skill" presentations grab attention, and my PR review queue grows every day as people generate more code than ever. But to keep this out of a low-value vent, my experience has been that the _threat_ of it is there, but in my small corner of the world/industry, lots of layoffs that would have happen…

Have never worked in my life like last year, and there's no signs of slowing down. At least I don't have to review PRs, we have built a team around the concept of trust and not needing to check each other's work. There's simply too much work to start nit picking in PRs, everybody's very talented and a good engineer you can trust. They ask for feedback when they want it. And no, we're not producing slop, if anything A…

75% of the value on PR review is team visibility
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