Now that Claude Fable is out I’m sure it will finally come true /s
Where is the AI jobs crisis?
181–190 of 283 posts
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#182If America becomes wealthier due to AI, it will mean more follow-on jobs such as people using their newfound fortunes to remodel their homes, consume more , vacation, etc. Companies will expand and hire. All of this creates jobs even if AI may also destroy some jobs. The net result is more jobs. There is a huge market for upper-middle-class people in their 30-50s to look younger. This means more health clinic jobs an…
Theoretically, that's true. In practice the gains were limited to the wealthy who use that money to fund increasingly deranged start-ups* until the market crashes. Then rinse and repeat. The failed start-ups effectively waste any increased productivity leaving everyone about where they were before. *They fund these start-ups to get a good return on investment so they can get even more money. As the economy overheats…
I think funding deranged startups is a type of consumption, and it does get money back into the economy the same way funding a remodel does. Maybe the reasoning to do so is different, and maybe the deranged startups add more capital than a bathroom remodel, but then again, bathroom remodels probably tank less often than startups, and worst case you can always read a magazine in your new bathroom. hard to do that in a dead startup
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#183The tech co I work for just massively scaled token usage after the copilot price changes. If there was a chance for ai to replace anyone, it's gone now.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
Median is also up: Median weekly earnings of the nation's 121.0 million full-time wage and salary workers were $1,235 in the first quarter of 2026 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was 3.4 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 2.7 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period. https://www.bls.gov/news.re…
wonder how much of it is K-shaped. if is payouts for execs, capital gains and alike are boosting aggregate.
Median specifically avoids outliers at both ends of the continuum like that.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#185AFAICT, the "Rising layoffs year after year" news lately has been an intentional misreporting of "Layoff rates slowly returning to normal after the hiring spree during COVID stimulation" https://blog.glassdoor.com/site-us/wp-content/uploads/sites/... https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/worklife-trends-2026/ But, CEOs figured out that if they blame layoffs on AI, stock go up a lot. Reporters know that anxiety about AI driv…
This is the same with ANY depreciating asset or currency? Can I wait a year to buy it? Will I get 10x the return by waiting a year? Will my competition have a moat if I can move 10x faster next year? can I save money now?
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
This seems pretty unlikely. If it turns out to be true then you don't need a junior or senior dev you can just get a random person from the street and they could do the job.
that is what CEO of NVIDIA is telling everyone. "everyone is a programmer now".
Finally, everyone can code. Thanks to all the programmers for their efforts
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#187I'm a consultant, and had my first conversation about an AI clean-up job this week. I'm also just starting another gig analysing LLM output, my sell is that the analysis is hand-coded, as they weren't able to do it themselves with LLM support. On the other hand, I'm just finishing an agent-heavy piece. After getting it set up, it's been some of the most mindless and soul-destroying work I've had the displeasure of in…
As a fellow freelancer where do you see that you could survive this into the future?
I operate in a bit of a niche, in terms of my clients. They're all typically people I've worked for full time in the past, or closely related. There are some fundamentals of that business I worry about, but I'm able to do things they can't, and I'm looking alright for the year. That's as good as I can generally wish for.
Longer term, I don't know. I'd happily take something more secure if it came along, as long as it's not childminding for an agent. Super busy and bored out my mind the last few weeks, the worst sort of work.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#188AFAICT, the "Rising layoffs year after year" news lately has been an intentional misreporting of "Layoff rates slowly returning to normal after the hiring spree during COVID stimulation" https://blog.glassdoor.com/site-us/wp-content/uploads/sites/... https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/worklife-trends-2026/ But, CEOs figured out that if they blame layoffs on AI, stock go up a lot. Reporters know that anxiety about AI driv…
I don't recall there being regular, industry-wide layoffs effecting software engineers for basically the entirety of my career up until the last couple of years. I'm sure my memory is bad and there's data to refute that, but this doesn't feel like "normal" at all.
If your career was entirely post GFC you lived through the good times. The GFC and dot com crash were not good.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#189AFAICT, the "Rising layoffs year after year" news lately has been an intentional misreporting of "Layoff rates slowly returning to normal after the hiring spree during COVID stimulation" https://blog.glassdoor.com/site-us/wp-content/uploads/sites/... https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/worklife-trends-2026/ But, CEOs figured out that if they blame layoffs on AI, stock go up a lot. Reporters know that anxiety about AI driv…
Correct. This is also the reason why job postings arent as high as they were during and after COVID. During COVID we had “the great resignation” which meant that people were leaving companies to find better pay after 2020 so companies had to “overhire” to account for the poor retention.
This is what a buddy who works at a major consulting firm told me about the hiring trend, we are returning to all the pre-COVID hiring norms.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't recall there being regular, industry-wide layoffs effecting software engineers for basically the entirety of my career up until the last couple of years. I'm sure my memory is bad and there's data to refute that, but this doesn't feel like "normal" at all.
If your career was entirely post GFC you lived through the good times. The GFC and dot com crash were not good.
So after 2007 for people like me who arent used to the GFC acronym. Which in my case, I was 17 in 2007 and “shielded” from all of that.