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The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

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Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#241
post #93

For any one who has not read the cockpit recording of air-france-447 I would encourage them to[1]. It is simply jaw dropping study in how things go wrong so fast — a risk with AI we have barely begun to acknowledge let alone regulate as a community. [1]( https://tailstrike.com/database/01-june-2009-air-france-447/ )

That's the one where one of the pilots pulled up the entire time, ignoring an alarm literally blaring the word "stall" for 2 minutes. The poor captain found out I the last 10s what he had been doing but it was too late. A couple accidents occurred largely due to Airbus averaging conflicting inputs with nothing more than a small warning light when it occurred. I'm pretty sure they would have gotten the Boeing treatmen…

A bit more complicated, as the aircraft itself was unable to detect the stall conditions due to icing of the pitot tubes so the warning itself was in and out several times. Clearly the copilots did not understand the situation so an inconsistent alarm could be seen as spurious or a secondary effect.

> At the same time he made an abrupt nose-up input on the side-stick, an action that was unnecessary and excessive under the circumstances. The aircraft's stall warning sounded briefly twice due to the angle of attack tolerance being exceeded

...

> The crew's lack of response to the stall warning, whether due to a failure to identify the aural warning, to the transience of the stall warnings that could have been considered spurious, to the absence of any visual information that could confirm that the aircraft was approaching stall after losing the characteristic speeds, to confusing stall-related buffet for overspeed-related buffet, to the indications by the flight director that might have confirmed the crew's mistaken view of their actions, or to difficulty in identifying and understanding the implications of the switch to alternate law, which does not protect the angle of attack.

Its a complicated interplay of systems, where autonomous control systems are changing modes and receiving bad information during a complex, raplidly developing situation.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people seem to put “CEOs” on a pedestal any time things come up, like they’re an alien life form Might I suggest a viewing of the 2025 film "Bugonia"?

spoilers

It's in the trailer.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#243
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is everyone so damn obsessed with the singularity? You don't need superintelligence to disrupt humanity. We easily have enough advancement to change the economy dramatically as is. The adoption isn't there yet.

> The adoption isn't there yet. It's worth noting that after ~50 years[edit: to preempt nitpicking, yes I know we've been using computers productively quite a bit longer than that, but that's roughly the time when the computerized office started to really gain traction across the whole economy in developed countries], we've only extracted a tiny proportion of the hypothetical value of computers , period, as far as be…

it's an interesting question: how much more productive would we all be if we were all as savvy/literate/productive with computers as some hypothetical comparator (I'm not sure programmers are the right comparison to make)?

for example, i am in operations and strategy, but have always wanted to be more technical because i could see the value for many many tasks. however, the learning curve was steep and so learning and doing other things drove better returns for me.

now, LLMs make learning basic concepts and executing simple tasks extremely easy, and i am realizing a higher level of productivity then previously; i used codex to do a test data migration and then evaluate the data quality. i could simply not have done this previously, but it is a meaningful change for me, that i can execute on this.

there is no maintenance burden: i don't have to keep the code alive. it simply sped up an otherwise manual and non repeated task.

i think that's what's so interesting and concerning about this technology: i think power and productivity will flow more broadly across the workforce. this will result in relative winners and losers, and some who will experience no real change at all.

similarly to the costs and benefits of mobile devices diffusing technology access; it changed some things, it created winners and losers and yet our daily lives are recognizable to someone from 50 or even more years ago.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#244
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Class warfare generalizations have become the safe outlet for internet rage because going after CEOs and billionaires is most “punching up” construction that is generally relatable. An unintended side effect that I’ve noticed is that it normalizes bad behavior of CEOs for those who invest a lot of “CEOs bad” grist (Reddit, Threads, even Hacker News). When someone, usually early career, takes a job with a bad CEO afte…

> Class warfare generalizations have become the safe outlet for internet rage because going after CEOs and billionaires is most “punching up” construction that is generally relatable. Mainly because "CEOs and billionaires" have fucked us over time and again, with their with their lobbying and bribing, with their power grabs, with their consolidation of news, entertainment, streaming, and social media properties, with…

I don't think monopolies are the root of all evil so I'm on some level disqualified as a neo-Brandeisian. But it does seem plain that power corrupts, so we shouldn't give so much of it to so few people, which likely means limiting the size of companies (market share, staff).

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the one where one of the pilots pulled up the entire time, ignoring an alarm literally blaring the word "stall" for 2 minutes. The poor captain found out I the last 10s what he had been doing but it was too late. A couple accidents occurred largely due to Airbus averaging conflicting inputs with nothing more than a small warning light when it occurred. I'm pretty sure they would have gotten the Boeing treatmen…

A bit more complicated, as the aircraft itself was unable to detect the stall conditions due to icing of the pitot tubes so the warning itself was in and out several times. Clearly the copilots did not understand the situation so an inconsistent alarm could be seen as spurious or a secondary effect. > At the same time he made an abrupt nose-up input on the side-stick, an action that was unnecessary and excessive unde…

>A bit more complicated, as the aircraft itself was unable to detect the stall conditions due to icing of the pitot tubes so the warning itself was in and out several times.

74 times the stall warning blared [1]

Of the 3 pilots in the cockpit, only one thought he had to pull up, see page 31, unfortunately he was one of the ones in control.

>raplidly developing situation.

It was the same situation from when it began to the end, stuck pitot tubes. Though the stall warning only started blaring when the pilot stalled the plane. Bad airspeed indicators don't stall the plane, and are something pilots are supposed to be able to handle, that's why 2 of the 3 were shocked one did the exact opposite in the situation.

It was pilot error. Just look at the report, every finding starts with "the Crew". Planes aren't supposed to crash into the ground just because an air speed sensor failed.

[1] https://bea.aero/uploads/tx_elyextendttnews/annexe.01.en.pdf

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's the thing: the table saw has safeties . Someone put them there. Without those safeties, it, too, would jump unpredictably. Scary scenarios like AIs deleting home directories are the result of the developers explicitly bypassing those safeties.

> But that's the thing: the table saw has safeties . Someone put them there. You noticed that I mentioned that this hypothetical table saw has poorly-designed, entirely inadequate safeties? Things like Opus treating the data it presents to the user as commands that it should execute [0] is definitely [1] a sign of solid, well-designed safety mechanisms. You might choose to retort "Well, that's because the user isn't…

Just to drive home the "These things have poorly-designed, entirely inadequate safeties", here [0] is a report from three weeks ago of the then-latest version of Claude Code being commanded to enter into the "Don't modify anything" mode, reporting to the user that it was in the "Don't modify anything" mode, and then proceeding to modify things as if it was not actually in the "Don't modify anything" mode.

I'm sure if I dug around, I would find hundreds of reports of these tools [1] jumping over their safeties to do things that are unexpected, and not-infrequently hazardous. I expect that such reports will continue, because "building robust, effective, and reliable safeties" has very, very clearly not been a significant priority for the major LLM companies. But, I've more than proven my point, so I'll leave the small pile of evidence at this.

[0] https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/39201>

[1] ...both LLM and "harness" (or whatever Anthropic would call things like Claude Code)...

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Similarly, many senior software engineers are reporting 2-10x productivity increases. But are they making 2-10x compensation compared to before these tools? If not, these tools are not really useful to you, they are useful to your employer. The most shocking thing I find about LLM-assisted development is how gleefully we are just handing all this value over to our employers, simultaneously believing that they are g…

> handing all this value over to our employers, simultaneously believing that they are great because we're producing more. You could turn the table and say that you can now launch your own business with far fewer resources. Who needs financial capital if you can do it all with solo / small team labor capital? Gossip Goblin ditched his studio and now a16z is trying to throw him money, which he's turned down. He's turn…

People play video games for many different reasons. As someone who plays them to experience human craftsmanship and creativity (some call it art), I'm not at all interested in playing a game created with AI. People are free to see it differently, but I'm sure I'm not alone.
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