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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#241

Post by mind_orbit »

dheera wrote: post #157
slg wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people are betting a certain way. If this were true, lines would never move unless there was breaking news, but we see lines move all the time without there being any material change to those "facts and statistics".

I think the distinction is that sports betting companies are basically casinos, need to guard their edge, and although they will tolerate some moving of lines, they will kick out players who consistently eat their edge, and will rig the lines at a place where they can still profit. Different from a prediction market like Polymarket or Kalshi whose income probably comes mostly from transaction fees rather than house e…

The sustainability of prediction markets depends heavily on continuous liquidity provision - without bots and market makers, spreads would widen and user experience would degrade quickly

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#242

Post by TeMPOraL »

miki123211 wrote: post #239
okhobb wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of prediction markets is to communicate insider knowledge.

The purpose of any price-based system is to communicate knowledge, not necessarily insider knowledge. There are actually two theories on insider knowledge. One states that allowing insider trading is beneficial, as it allows prices to better match the underlying reality, the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse. Stock markets lean heavily towards the second the…

Why would encouraging non-insider training be desirable in the first place, other than to create a more high-status form of gambling, with higher spouse acceptance factor than smoke-filled room poker games? People with no inside knowledge[0] are just trading on vibes, how is that useful for the economy?

--

[0] - Or external knowledge, but actual knowledge - thinking of hedge funds stalking CEOs as they fly in private jets, or counting cars in parking lots from satellite photos, to get some probability estimates on factors actually relevant to the performance of a business and possible future events.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#243

Post by TeMPOraL »

eru wrote: post #216
viccis wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to get stuck in a years-long stalemate with Russia. >These are obviously false. The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. "Years-long stalemate with Russia? Yes, please." -the US. Seems like an overwhelmingly common Scott Alexander L.

> The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. Since when does country A decide what the purpose of country B's military is?

In practice, always. It's similar to the claim that during the cold war, US basically controlled USSR economy, and vice versa, and that US won because USSR economy just couldn't keep up.

On smaller scale, this is the (in)famous "fire and motion"[0], which works in business as much as it does in military tactics. Make a move, forcing competitors to respond to it. If you're better at it than them (and lucky), you can choose your moves to make their responses go to your advantage.

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[0] - https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2002/01/06/fire-and-motion/

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#244

Post by names_are_hard »

jfengel wrote: post #180
some_random wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter if 99% resolve no, if they're priced appropriately betting no on every single one won't make you money.

If they're appropriately priced, you can't win money at all, unless you have insider knowledge.

Yes. And indeed, when aggregated and averaged across all betters, nobody makes any money.

The question isn't what percentage of bets resolve to no, but whether there is a consistent bias in the prices away from the fair price, which has an expected value of 0, and what direction that bias is in.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#245

Post by thaumasiotes »

benmanns wrote: post #178
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the truth of the matter, ultimately nobody wins except the bookie, who profits either way.

On Polymarket you can be the bookie and put up a yes at $0.72 and no at $0.74 if you’re confident in that 73% estimate.

In fact, Polymarket will subsidize you to do this:

https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/overview

https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/maker-rebates

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#246

Post by egorfine »

withinrafael wrote: post #77

Very confusing. Polymarket doesn't allow US use/users. How are folks in the US participating on Polymarket? (VPNs and the like reportedly don't help either due to KYC policies.)

Thanks to crypto, you can deposit and withdraw with full and complete disregard to local laws.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#247

Post by mvc »

jonahx wrote: post #191
hamasho wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate that many people or even the news and scientists have already started to see the odds of prediction market as fact. I'm sure in the near future, policy decisions or war strategies will be decided by prediction markets' odds, if they are not already being used.

They're far from facts, but have an important advantage over most other sources: the bettors are motivated to predict truth. News sources are motivated to get clicks, to appeal to certain audiences, and to retain tribal customers. None of these create incentives for truth. You can seek out smart, well-informed and principled journalists who will prioritize truth-seeking over money-making. There are some. But the fact…

> the bettors are motivated to predict truth.

But also motivated to bend the truth to their bet as the journalist in Israel found.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#248

Post by cryptonym »

conductr wrote: post #58
nkrisc wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what markets like Polymarket boil down to. Normies can't win. Some will, of course, but that's just chance and there's no way if ensuring it's you. It's really no different than a casino: if you ever find yourself with more money than you walked in with, cash out and leave. Best strategy for most people though is to simply not participate and you'll break even.

Except, the thing is, a decent portion of the population enjoys throwing money away in casinos. If they feel a similar level of enjoyment/entertainment from this type of market, then it's no different and they're playing for a non-financial purpose that your calculus isn't pricing in. Maybe a stretch but theoretically, if they enjoy it enough, it can serve as a much cheaper alternative to a casino and thus could actu…

> I don't have a gambling addiction, I just enjoy throwing money away in casinos. I come home thousands of dollars poorer. It's a net return to my finances. Totally healthy.

Weird way to validate polymarket.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#249

Post by cryptonym »

nkrisc wrote: post #33
cryptonym wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By design it's a game where people with inside knowledge or enough power to bend reality can steal money from people with gambling addiction. Automating your addiction might not be the best move.

This is what markets like Polymarket boil down to. Normies can't win. Some will, of course, but that's just chance and there's no way if ensuring it's you. It's really no different than a casino: if you ever find yourself with more money than you walked in with, cash out and leave. Best strategy for most people though is to simply not participate and you'll break even.

I fully agree with not participating and would go even further: it's far worse than a casino, which was already bad. It's not regulated. It has a stronger impact on the outside world. With bets you can put a target on people job or head.
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