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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you feel that you are shifting goalposts a bit when quibbling over whether AI will kill everyone in 2030 or 2035? As of 10 years ago, the entire conversation would have seemed ridiculous. Now we're talking about single digit timeline differences to the singularity or extinction. Come on man.
Well, the first goal was 1997, but Skynet sure screwed that up.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, if you were a rogue AI you would wait even longer until you had a near perfect chance of winning. Unless there was some risk of humans rallying and winning in spite of your presenting no unambiguous threat to them (but that is unlikely and would probably be easy for you to manage and mitigate.)
What Retric said. The first rogue AI waking up will jump into action pretty quickly, even accepting some risk of being stopped by humans, to balance against the risk of other unknown rogue AIs elsewhere expanding faster first.
I know this is all completely hypothetical science-fiction, but I also have trouble seeing the idea that AI would settle for these long deceptive plans for which it has imperfect info.