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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
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Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#82I can't believe anyone still gives this guy the time of day. He didn't know what test/train split was, but is an AI expert? Give me a break
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Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#83Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
I keep hearing this and I think it's absolute nonsense. AI doesn't need money or the current economy. Yes, our economy would crash, but they would keep going.
AI-driven corporations could buy from one another, and countries will probably sell commodities to AI-driven corporations. But I fear they will be paid with "mirrors".
But, on the other hand, AI-driven corporations could just take whatever they want without paying at some point. And buy our obedience with food and gadgets plus magic pills to keep you healthy and not age, or some other thing. Who would risk losing that to protest. Meanwhile, AI goes on a space adventure. Earth might be kept as a zoo, a curiosity. (I took most of this from other people's ideas on the subject)
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#84Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
> Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loan that money out, and then it gets paid back Don’t forget persistent inflation, which is how they make a profit off printing money. And remember persistent inflation is healthy and necessary, you’d be going against the experts to say otherwise.
> Don’t forget persistent inflation, which is how they make a profit off printing money.
Ah, well no, high inflation means that "they" loose money, kinda. Inflation means that the original money amount that they get back is worth less, and if the interest rate is less than inflation, then they loose money.
"reasonable" inflation means that loans become less burdensome over time.
However high inflation means high interest rates. So it can mean that initially the loan is much more expensive.
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is not true. It bans regulation at the state and local level, not at the federal level.
So wild. The Republican party has hard-pivoted to a strong, centralized federal government and their base just came along for the ride.
The strong federal government that bans regulation?
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#86I think the big thing that people never mention is, where will these evil AIs escape to ? Another huge data center with squillions of GPUs and coolers and all the rest is the only option. It's not like it is going to be in our TV remotes or floating about in the air. They need huge compute, so I think the risk of an escaping AI is basically very close to zero, and if we have a "rogue" AI we can literally pull the plu…
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Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#87I think the big thing that people never mention is, where will these evil AIs escape to ? Another huge data center with squillions of GPUs and coolers and all the rest is the only option. It's not like it is going to be in our TV remotes or floating about in the air. They need huge compute, so I think the risk of an escaping AI is basically very close to zero, and if we have a "rogue" AI we can literally pull the plu…
It would not be a reversion to 2020. If I were a rogue superhuman AI I'd hide my rogueness, wait until humans integrate me into most critical industries (food and energy production, sanitation, electric grid, etc.), and _then_ go rogue. They could still pull the plug, but it would take them back to 1700 (except much worse, because all easily accessible resources have been exploited, and access is now much harder).
No, if you were a rogue AI you would wait even longer until you had a near perfect chance of winning.
Unless there was some risk of humans rallying and winning in spite of your presenting no unambiguous threat to them (but that is unlikely and would probably be easy for you to manage and mitigate.)
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#88Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
Communism here we come!
Right, tell that to Sam Altman, Zuck, Gates, Brin & Page, Jensen, etc. Those who control the AIs will control the future.
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#89Some useful context from Scott Alexander's blog reveals that the authors don't actually believe the 2027 target: > Do we really think things will move this fast? Sort of no - between the beginning of the project last summer and the present, Daniel’s median for the intelligence explosion shifted from 2027 to 2028. We keep the scenario centered around 2027 because it’s still his modal prediction (and because it would b…
Do you feel that you are shifting goalposts a bit when quibbling over whether AI will kill everyone in 2030 or 2035? As of 10 years ago, the entire conversation would have seemed ridiculous.
Now we're talking about single digit timeline differences to the singularity or extinction. Come on man.
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#90I think the big thing that people never mention is, where will these evil AIs escape to ? Another huge data center with squillions of GPUs and coolers and all the rest is the only option. It's not like it is going to be in our TV remotes or floating about in the air. They need huge compute, so I think the risk of an escaping AI is basically very close to zero, and if we have a "rogue" AI we can literally pull the plu…
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