Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade • Hacker News Board

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#241

Post by tppiotrowski » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:17 AM UTC

ModernMech wrote: post #109

tppiotrowski wrote: post #106

Personally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.

Depends on what you mean by "rewarding". I feel that building and creating is far more rewarding then clicking a button and watching a number go up. I hope others feel the same, because when everyone is clicking buttons and watching numbers, that's not something society can sustain.

I meant financially rewarding. It feels like the person that bought S&P500 stocks ten years ago probably fared better financially than the average entrepreneur.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#242

Post by sgerenser » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 12:39 PM UTC

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #165

tchalla wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment reminds me of Buffet’s 1984 article titled “The super investors of Graham and Doddville”. Here’s the relevant excerpt > Before we begin this examination, I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let’s assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise, and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call…

The funny thing about these people is that they did really well for a few decades. And then it dried up. Computers, the internet, software - it changed the world so much in the last 20 years that many things which looked like "deep value" just went belly up. Eddie Lampert is a great example of a (brilliant) graham and doddsville guy who basically got squashed by not understanding the world had changed. Over the past…

I don’t disagree, but somehow Buffett still managed to pivot from investing in newspapers and railroads to being one of the largest investors in Apple. Although even with his excellent timing on that one Berkshire only roughly matched the S&P over the past 15-20 years.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#243

Post by bequanna » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 1:03 PM UTC

rufus_foreman wrote: post #188

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So one of the worst long-term periods in history - the S&P was still ~50% better than cash. What else is a passive investor gonna do?

10-year treasuries, coupon payments reinvested, would have returned 18.156% adjusted for inflation over the same period, https://dqydj.com/treasury-return-calculator/ . They returned over 36% in 1982 alone!

I’m not sure it is a good idea to buy longer dated govt bonds when we’re in the middle of the most aggressive rate tightening period in a generation.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#244

Post by danielmarkbruce » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

sgerenser wrote: post #242

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The funny thing about these people is that they did really well for a few decades. And then it dried up. Computers, the internet, software - it changed the world so much in the last 20 years that many things which looked like "deep value" just went belly up. Eddie Lampert is a great example of a (brilliant) graham and doddsville guy who basically got squashed by not understanding the world had changed. Over the past…

I don’t disagree, but somehow Buffett still managed to pivot from investing in newspapers and railroads to being one of the largest investors in Apple. Although even with his excellent timing on that one Berkshire only roughly matched the S&P over the past 15-20 years.

Yup he deserves credit, he's one of the very few graham and dodds guys who has been able to adjust.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#245

Post by MisterMower » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 2:40 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #93

peteradio wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation adjusted won't that look rather flat or negative? Where are these real returns going to be coming from? Hot stocks haven't been paying appropriate dividends for the last two decades.

I wonder how much the end Moore's law is a part of this current slowdown. It would make sense to me that its impact would lag a while, and would eventually catch up.

Moore’s law ending? I’d say declining birth rates is at least an order of magnitude more important. If the future has half as many consumers and producers, scientists and engineers, entrepreneurs, etc. what do you think GDP and the stock market will look like?

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#246

Post by MisterMower » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 2:52 PM UTC

bidirectional wrote: post #162

tppiotrowski wrote: post #106

Personally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.

If you built or created something that other people like (i.e. will pay for), you could probably get a way better 10 year ROI than you would in the market.

Doing that creating requires taking on sizable risk, a chunk of investment up front, and most importantly, a lot of hard work, consistently applied over multiple years. I know I have had conversations with myself about starting a business or building a rent house and the cost benefit calculus always comes back “invest in the stock market, 10% return for zero effort over the long haul.”

It’s getting over the initial hump of “would trying this be profitable, discounting for risk, effort, and opportunity cost?” That is the issue. Lower real returns in the market might change this.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#247

Post by fullshark » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 2:59 PM UTC

dkrich wrote: post #190

llampx wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He appeared on TV crying while his firm was unrolling their hedges and buying stock for the rebound. Never trust media.

Ackman has a very mixed track record and has not had particularly great returns. To believe that he somehow predicted the entire sequence of events is being incredibly generous. Earlier this year he laid out an unbelievably lazy bull case for Netflix when it was around $350/share and said he had accumulated over a billion dollar position only to sell it a month later a massive loss saying the story had changed.

It's not that he tried to predict, it's that he tried to cause a panic selloff to buy stocks for cheaper. I imagine his CNBC interview had some effect it was unhinged and went semi viral.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#248

Post by porknubbins » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 3:11 PM UTC

01100011 wrote: post #240

nly wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with timing the market is you have to be right twice - you have to choose when to sell and when to buy back in. On the other hand, DCA'ing you way through a market decline and recovery will always leave you in a better position than one where the crash never happened.

> problem with timing the market is you have to be right twice And times like this when macro forces dominate it's not hard to predict. If you're talking about timing entry/exit over the past decade, sure, but now is not then, and it's bogleheads refusal to see that which is most frustrating. But I'll say again, you don't need to nail it. Don't try to time the exact top and bottom, but don't pretend you can't get clo…

I guess the lesson on macro now is when the Fed says it wants to cool inflation, market be damned, believe them. But in general I claim you cannot get close to top bottoms consistently- because so much of the movement happens so fast now, you can get 10% in days or weeks and if you are out of position all your effort was for nothing. I’ve been trying for decades but would have been better taking the advice to put it in the SP500.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#249

Post by daniel-cussen » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 4:49 PM UTC

01100011 wrote: post #192

lexapro wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is buy and hold a "pessimal strategy"?

IDK what OP believes, but to me, the "Boglehead" strategy is great, with giant caveats. Most devotees I talk to get visibly frustrated when I suggest that you can look at larger macroeconomic forces, like COVID, supply chain issues, Fed manipulations(both positive and negative) and make educated predictions on the direction of stocks. My guess is that these are folks who just don't want the frustration of learning ab…

Well so some stocks are obviously bad, it's not an strong-form efficient stock market for eg Nikola because turns out shorting small stocks can go terribly wrong. It's up to the people who actually own shares to sell them, or forfeit them, like this is worth nothing I'll put it on the exchange for a cent. And in fact on the other hand that is what naked shorting is, only without actually owning a share, identical to casting a ballot you didn't receive, like same as an immigrant or tourist voting without legitimacy, or a dead man's vote.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#250

Post by llampx » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 8:12 PM UTC

Buttons840 wrote: post #220

llampx wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He appeared on TV crying while his firm was unrolling their hedges and buying stock for the rebound. Never trust media.

This is the first time it's occurred to me that any "market-expert" who is widely listened too has an inherent conflict of interest. By misleading the public they can increase their own gains.

This is pretty much all financial media, especially Jim Cramer from MSNBC.