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Earlier quoted context omitted.
A 5x difference largely skewed towards the elderly and obese fits the definition of “comparable”, but ofc this is assumed to be a downplaying tactic.
It is when you look at the flu data. You think the flu kills more people on average? It doesn't, and most people that die from the flu are also elderly or have pre-existing conditions.
In fact, supposedly the analysis of just how bad that flu epidemic had been (and how it had been largely ignored) is what basically created the postmodern version of the practice of epidemiology we still use today ?
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Depends on the flu, and on how effective that year's flu vaccine is. The 1918-1919 flu had its highest mortality rate in the young adult range, where it was unquestionably higher than covid-19 (although the lack of PCR tests or equivalent back then make it difficult to arrive at precise numbers infected). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Epidemiology_and_p...
Comparing modern death rates to the 1919 flu, and to historical smallpox infection, is not useful. Medical technology has come a long way in a century and so average mortality rates have dropped for all diseases. 2019 and 2020 had particularly dangerous flu seasons and were still significantly less deadly than COVID.
> The frozen vials "were incidentally discovered by a laboratory worker while cleaning out a freezer in a facility that conducts vaccine research in Pennsylvania" Occam's razor suggests that those were put into the freezer decades ago and forgotten, and if they were moved, no one bothered to read the labels until now.
Now just imagine what you could discover cleaning your own freezer
It seems super unlikely, but can anyone here help reduce my anxiety that this might be related to the recent Monkeypox cases in the US? [0] Like, the timing doesn't work out, and the person who got infected came from Africa so we're probably not seeing something like community spread... And this would almost certainly be too old to infect people. Anything I'm missing? [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2926993…
>In the event of an outbreak, the C.D.C. said, “there is enough smallpox vaccine to vaccinate every person in the United States.” We'd be lucky to get 80% uptake. I can already imagine all of the anti smallpox vaccine propaganda that would spread through FB within a day.
I imagine most of the skeptical people would be happy with a smallpox vaccine given it is a real vaccine that provides immunity by injecting an inactive (non replicating) virus. Compared to the latest ones that do something entirely different and at beast provide 'protection' - the CDC changed the definition of the word vaccine to include these latest bunch of jabs.
Doesn't help that the "standard" smallpox vaccine is quite nasty in terms of application and side effects (leaves a scar): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_vaccine#ACAM2000
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The amount of people I've heard say "I have a strong immune system" (or some variation), as if that's a defense to COVID, I'm sure would have no problem trotting that out against Smallpox. When we can make Big Bird promoting vaccination a political issue, I expect the amount of people who would reject a smallpox vaccine would be disturbingly high.
The weird thing about that is the age bracket at greatest risk of dying from COVID were actually vaccinated for smallpox. If that came to pass, the elderly would be watching their children and grandchildren die.
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Deciding to culture the samples, versus just destroying them without analysis, must be accompanied by an interesting risk/benefit analysis.
Honestly I am more concerned with the transport. If I had found the samples I would consider burning down the lab. Sorry, but the end of Smallpox is one of the greatest medical success stories ever. I am not going to be the one who reopens that particular Pandoras box.
I mean sure an outbreak would be pretty horrific. But once the pictures start circulating, I suspect vaccine hesitation would evaporate pretty quickly.
Yes, yes, we should go far to avoid an outbreak, but would it really be so world ending? Wouldn't we just contain it, vaccinate widely and be done with it?