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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#241

Post by celsoazevedo »

quenix wrote: post #229
dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

Shouldn’t we see this reflected in hospital admissions?

Looking at the official data[0], the number of daily hospital admissions is still increasing: https://i.imgur.com/XkbImVg.png

But hospital admissions usually lag behind the number of infections. If in a week or two admissions are still going up while the number of new infections drops, then this theory may be correct.

[0] https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#242

Post by bee_rider »

ls612 wrote: post #226
bee_rider wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For unvaccinated people it can be quite a bit worse than the flu. The degree of empathy afforded those folks seems to be a subject of active debate I guess...

The good news for them is that it’s easier than ever for them to change their status

Other than people with compromised immune systems, or people who are trying not to spread the virus to small children for whom the vaccine isn't approved yet.

I'm all for being annoyed people who could get the vaccine but decided not to, but we shouldn't throw the actual babies out with the proverbial bathwater, right?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#243

Post by chrisseaton »

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

> My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests

Is that where this data comes from?

I'm not sure it is. I think it's separate sampling.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#245

Post by throwaway4good »

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

It really makes me wonder why the authorities don’t do proper randomized surveys? It is obvious that the testing numbers will go up and down as the population goes scared and then goes don’t care.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#246

Post by qeternity »

lucb1e wrote: post #230
dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

> My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating Okay that's easy to check: data should show a reduction in positive tests roughly on par with the reduction in number of tests. Recent peak value of tests per day was 16.42 per 1000 citizens on Jul 17th. At that time there were 630.57 positive test results per million citizens. On July 28th (late…

UK resident here: I don't know of anyone who has gotten covid in many months, and nearly everyone I know is vaxxed.

I believe this Delta collapse. It's exactly what you'd expect given our pace of vaccinations.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#247

Post by Havoc »

>all the more conspicuous for happening just two days after the country’s pandemic restrictions were [...] lifted

Lateral flow tests just happened to run out on the day restrictions were lifted. [0] And tada numbers plummet right when gov is taking massive heat for dropping restrictions in the middle of a surge.

Yes really - that is how the current UK gov rolls.

The fact that the author is trying to extrapolate other countries future trajectory based on that is rather amusing.

[0] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lateral-flow...

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#248

Post by qeternity »

nostromo wrote: post #237

I don't see why we should care about number of cases in countries with freely available vaccines. Disease (as reflected by hospital admissions) and death are what we care about. And those numbers are continuing to trend in the right direction. The US media is just addicted to fear at this point. With a more boring/traditional president in the office and the covid panic waning, there is a news vacuum. And the media is…

Deaths have absolutely plummeted, and correlations have very clearly broken from previous "waves". But in order to extract compliance from the population, there needs to be a call to action, so the goalposts were moved to infections, as opposed to hospitalizations/deaths.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#249

Post by michaelmrose »

adventured wrote: post #187
nostrademons wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

> It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Given the enormous US Covid outbreak, the US is likely not far away. We're at 70% adult vaccination and had a minimum of 100 million prior Covid infections. Also throw in tens of millions of people that likely have natural immunity to Covid. The biggest question with Delta is going to be…

Where are you getting 100M confirmed infections?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#250

Post by ryandrake »

realreality wrote: post #199
ryandrake wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason to not want children to get COVID is that they will spread it to their parents and grandparents, who are more vulnerable. It’s not about whether the children will die, which everyone agrees is very low probability.

The current vaccines will not prevent kids from spreading the virus to their grandparents.

It's not about preventing. It's about reducing probabilities. The vaccines do not prevent kids from getting it. They do not prevent adults from getting it. They do not prevent people from spreading it. They do not prevent people from getting hospitalized or dying from it. They decrease the chances of all of the above happening.
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