BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

I think the comparison is slightly unfair. eReader OS choice is a purely "cultural" decision in a literal sense. If they really wanted to, they could have put two secret teams in two secret buildings. Doing what Tesla did, that costs serious money, carrying serious risk

In fairness, at least bmw has the i3 and that's better than most. Also, what he says is true. The i3 is crap cost performance. It's just the only thing on the market, and so it sells.

Tesla's plan was impressive in it's decisiveness. Start at the top of the price pyramid and work down as battery prices get cheaper. That way, you can be close enough to cost competitive and have a decent range at all times. Destroy the cliche of golf carts on freeways. Launch a car to space.

BMW (and everyone else) went straight for mass market cars. They're just expensive (about 2X) for their categories and had a craps range. Range just got better.

Still... between incentives, general interest and such they would inevitably sell some cars. A 100k car won't sell that many units either, so the strategy will sell roughly the same numbers at the same growth rate. The economics will get better when they do. You'll already have been making that model for years. profit. BMW want(ed?) to do this across models, and I suppose transition everything smoothly over a decade.

Anyway, a year or two probably won't make a difference to the big picture. Early mover doesn't get you that much in cars, it's not messaging apps or digital marketplaces. Most manufacturers seem willing to lose more tan that.

Tesla moved the needle. It took big risk. Very impressive. Imagine how much it would have cost if BMW had taken that risk and failed. They took the safer option, but the risk here was real. MS' risk aversion was all in their heads.

Compared to their historical stuckness, they’re really not stuck. Model X took like four years to ramp to even 1k/week.

Until they miss a major target by a year, there’s really nothing to talk about. They’re doing just fine.

To be fair, every dealship I've ever dealt with is the same. They under pay and under train their mechanics and so have lots of problems, but the real issue is that they have huge incentives to intentionally screw you over as soon as the warranty period is over: they can sell you a new car.

I don't drive any more, but when I owned a couple of cars. The first time it happened the dealer told me I needed new brake rotors. I thought it was kind of strange, but was too preoccupied with my 80 hour a week job to think about it. When I picked up the car, I said, "Just put the rotors in the trunk." because I naively thought that it would be my responsibility to dispose of them. All of a sudden they turned on me and started demanding why I didn't trust them -- which, of course, made me suspicious. I eventually got the rotors after threatening the manager with calling the police and took them to an independent mechanic. Of course they were perfectly fine.

Latest was my wife's car a couple of years ago. My wife took her car to the dealership to change the oil. When she got her car back they told her, "We were looking at your car because your a car inspection is coming up" (In Japan you have to have an inspection every few years and fix whatever the inspector says). They told her it would cost more than $5000 to fix everything, and suggested that they had a wonderful used car that they could do a nice deal on in a trade. That way she could avoid the cost of the inspection (wonderful chaps).

So she said she would think about it. When she got home, I noticed an small oil leak and told her to get them to fix it. She drove back and they refused. "It's an old car", they said. "There is nothing we can do. You should trade it in because it will save you lots of money. But anyway, it's only a small leak, so just top it up every week."

My wife is Japanese and trusts people... sigh... Anyway, about a month later, no surprise, the engine light went on. She took it in to the dealership: "Oh the battery is dead. You have to buy a new one. Also, there is a serious problem with the electrical system. It will cost $2000. Why don't you just trade in your car for this younger model?"

Luckily, down the street from us there was a young guy who was just getting started setting up his own shop (he was working out of his home garage until he could raise enough money to rent a building). I asked him to take a look. Sure enough: the oil pan was over tightened, which cracked the gasket. Oil leaked on the battery lead, which corroded the insulation. This caused a short. It needed a new battery lead and a new oil pan gasket. He also did the car inspection and fixed everything up... all for $800.

TL;DR: Never do your repair work at the dealership. It should be obvious, really. It is run by the same people who sold you the car -- they are out to screw you over no matter how they can do it.

Tokomak is uncharted territory. It’s hundreds of PhDs trying to solve problems literally no one knows how to solve.

A lot of what Tesla has been doing is low hanging fruit. Supply chain optimization. Industrial design. Roboticization. These things aren’t science, they’re engineering. They’re applying known principles to the litany of problems an electric car entails.

There’s not much new science in a Tesla. Most of it could have been done years ago. There is some iteration required of course, but that’s why starting earlier would’ve made a difference.

The boat that has all the $100k sales on it from people that don’t want to wait 2-3 years for a BMW.

That boat. It’s red row boat in case you’re curious.