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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#231

Post by coliveira »

SilverElfin wrote: post #118
joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

What’s defensible about Anthropic’s revenue? It seems like OpenAI and others are equivalent. Open weight models are catching up. Google has ads networks, video platforms, and so much more. I am skeptical that Anthropic and OpenAI can defend their dominance for long enough to make meaningful gaap accounted profits

They will defend it the way any good monopoly always does: buying the competition. Case in point is Facebook: it is just a social network, the way they really stay on top is buying other companies and paying for people to spend even more time on their properties.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#232

Post by bdangubic »

coliveira wrote: post #221
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

The stock market is just a game that rich people use to manipulate money. It is not a reflection of the real world. Consider for example Google, one of the companies with highest valuation in the market. If Google stops working now, the only problem we'll have is getting a few minutes back of our time. Nobody will have big issues in life because one cannot find a web page, view more ads, and watch silly videos! Howev…

you can replace “google” with every company that exists or has ever existed so no sure what the purpose of your comment is unless you are pitching abolishing the stock market. google is what they are because they make shitton of money and will continue to do so (more and more) into foreseeable future. that is stock market, always has been, always will be

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#233

Post by coliveira »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #61
soared wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 30% increase in one year, across only 3 companies, seems like a of a stretch. Especially given current economic/etc climates.

> 30% increase in one year 30% above the average. Households bought $1.6 trillion in Q3 of 2025, for example. (Foreigners bought a further $650 and $700 billion in Q3 and Q4, respectively.) American capital markets are ridiculously deep.

> capital markets are ridiculously deep.

American market valuation is more than twice the entire US GDP. So ridiculous is a good description of what's going on.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#234

Post by hattmall »

burnte wrote: post #159
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating... Why? It could be sudden. It could be slow and gradual. I've seen no reason it needs to be one versus the other.

Irrational exuberance rarely transitions to a rational drawn down. The minute the first selfish-actor flood-liquidates, everyone else will too. That's now runs work.

But where else will people put their money?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#235

Post by fluidcruft »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #213
fluidcruft wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, right.

> Yeah, right Yes. Literally right.

Are you seriously under the illusion S&P is second guessing or reconsidering its plans? There's no evidence of that.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#236

Post by donbox »

gruez wrote: post #173
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

If it does not matter, then don't change it.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#237

Post by JumpCrisscross »

harimau777 wrote: post #226
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Were we struggling to do this before? We literally couldn't. > Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does. > What is now enabled? LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.

I think you missed the core of their question: What has actually gotten better in practical terms for the average American?

> What has actually gotten better in practical terms for the average American?

Starlink has made connectivity cheaper and more available. Earth imaging has made various food production processes more efficient. Weather forecasts have become more accurate.

If you’ve genuinely missed the massive economy that LEO has become, it will be a fun thing to catch up on.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#238

Post by JumpCrisscross »

alpha_squared wrote: post #229
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Were we struggling to do this before? We literally couldn't. > Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does. > What is now enabled? LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.

Granted, I only skimmed some high-line numbers, but isn't their only profitable project Starlink? SpaceX is functionally a satellite internet company that happens to make rockets.

> isn't their only profitable project Starlink? SpaceX is functionally a satellite internet company that happens to make rockets

Yes. The thing that’s going public is almost entirely an AI play.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#239

Post by alpha_squared »

olalonde wrote: post #228
threetonesun wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

I can give some recent examples. - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer. - Using it daily for Chinese-English translation. Significantly better than pre-LLM translation software. Also, great at teaching grammar, nuances, etc. - General Q&A. Like "Googling" but much faster. This is probably the most common use case for me.

> - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer.

This is exactly the point that keeps coming up that folks are struggling to grasp, myself included. How are you measuring this? It certainly makes me feel productive, but I'm not sure I can confidently say it has actually made me more productive. It's made the easy stuff a no-brainer (e.g. boilerplate, simple logic) and the moderate stuff really hard. Never mind the hard stuff. Vetting the code has become a whole other job on its own. The only folks I've found who confidently claim it increases productivity appear to be online (and without evidence), because no one in person is willing to claim that and show it.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#240

Post by [deleted] »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

[deleted]
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