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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#231

Post by blackcatsec »

glitchc wrote: post #214
tootie wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Global pricing affects all fossil fuels and always will. Energy independence will remain a fantasy until we are fully on renewables. Which is entirely within reach and requires fighting zero wars.

It's the other way around: Renewables will remain a fantasy until we achieve energy independence.

When it comes to fossil fuels, there's no such thing as 'energy independence' because fossil fuels are traded on a global market. In addition, not all oil is the same. So you have to trade it because what you can extract may not be what is useful to you, but useful to someone else.

In short, the US cannot functionally be independent on fossil fuels even if we extracted every drop of oil within our borders--because we literally cannot use all of it, and most of it would be wasted just sitting around.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#232

Post by ericmay »

asah wrote: post #207
ericmay wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in…

"only the paranoid survive"

Yea there is some truth to that. The US is still in a wartime economy and cultural mode of thinking post-WWII (military budget, highway and infrastructure build, cultural characteristics around guns [1] and such). The downside is the degradation of quality of life, rage-bait, stress, those sorts of things. But if we have Americans constantly freaking out (and to some extent they should - being #1 is tough) about Chyna that does put pressure on the government to take these concerns seriously if they previously were not.

[1] Not a 2nd Amendment criticism, I’m a strong supporter. More so the folks who load up on ammo and “cool” gear and all that stuff.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#233

Post by nimbius »

ericmay wrote: post #165
nimbius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

exactly. this sounds like a third path where the UAE charts its own course, and that course increasingly looks paved in Yuan. OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.

> the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in…

> Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either.

It is an admission that US protection was always a paper tiger. Perhaps in the 1960s it meant something, but Iran has shattered the illusion that Washington has any credible defense of the country.

> The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in Yuan. But we'll just blockade the Straight and seize oil priced in Yuan or something.

The UAE primarily sells its oil to China, which is its largest export partner, followed by countries like India and Japan. the United States cannot do this without not only obliterating energy markets for an ally, but strengthening alliances between china and india. It is likely that should the US attempt such a move, China would respond with retaliatory technology tariffs and a reduction of agricultural trade.

> Who exactly does the UAE need protection from? Iran? China's ally?

the UAE did not "need protection" from any regional military threat until the United States used regional peace talks as cover to launch a surprise attack against Iran. the UAE would still likely be an OPEC member state had the US not unilaterally chosen to obliterate global energy markets for no consistent or clearly defined reason.

> there's just never any follow-up or perhaps imagination that the US could just do something too.

This conflict was well defined as geopolitical suicide for nearly forty years; its what kept the peace. All simulations and tabletop exercises predicted such an incursion would send global energy markets into panic, trade markets into recession, and produce no meaningful advancement of either regional security or regime change. Iran is backed by powerful allies and has shown numerous times it can meet each US escalation with yet more regional attacks. We have tried escalation and failed, burned through a decade of advanced missiles fighting cheap drones, and have no defined objective politically or militarily for this conflict.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#234

Post by watwut »

ericmay wrote: post #165
nimbius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

exactly. this sounds like a third path where the UAE charts its own course, and that course increasingly looks paved in Yuan. OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.

> the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in…

> Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything.

Well, Iran closed the Straight and the world is facing biggest oil crises since 90ties. US was in fact incapable to prevent it. Even if the Straight opened today, harm already happened and will continue to happen for months. And I dont think it will open today.

The war did not had to start at all and is causing considerable harm already. Iran feeling pain does not mean surrounding states were protected - instead they were put into harms way.

> Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either.

At this point, China is more predictable and crucially, more likely to keep their word. Not exactly entirely predictable and not exactly truth teller, but the difference here is huge.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#235

Post by dmix »

Cyph0n wrote: post #161
dmix wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE's major issue with Saudis is their quiet support for Islamism as well. They know countries like Iran exploit for it like a wildcard which always backfires and destabilizes the region, which is bad for business.

No. The UAE’s major issue is that KSA has finally awoken from its deep nonsensical slumber (I can elaborate further if there is interest). This is a battle of economies and regional influence.

MBZ is definitely more anti-islamism than the saudis. UAE really doesn't like muslim brotherhood while Saudis have supported groups aligned with them in Yemen plus Saudis are getting closer to Turkey/Qatar.

Even UAE/saudi backing different groups in Sudan war is rooted in Yemen/brotherhood issue. Both Sudanese groups sent competing troops to fight in Yemen.

> While Saudi Arabia does not have any problems with Islamists and in fact more or less openly supports them, according to Donelli, the UAE sees radical religious groups as a threat to its domestic stability, as well as stability in the wider region. This distinction is also evident in the two countries’ support for the respective sides in Sudan. The UAE supports RSF’s more secular version of Islam, whereas the SAF under al-Burhan’s leadership is widely seen as more or less a continuation of the regime of Omar al-Bashir, which was heavily influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood. https://nai.uu.se/stories-and-events/news/2025-02-07-gulf-st...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#236

Post by jagraff »

api wrote: post #221
bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

Agreed - the good news is, in many circumstances renewable energy is cheaper for new energy capacity. As long as regulations move in the right direction, we are likely to see the global energy mix move towards renewable sources over time

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#237

Post by bpt3 »

RobRivera wrote: post #171
iLemming wrote: post #138

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, and my grandson is going to ride a camel". Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, the former Emir of Dubai.

Its a fun line, but the volume of money they have and the way its managed says they are looking at retaining that wealth somehow

The point of the line is not that they aren't going to try, it's an acknowledgement of the extreme challenge in diversifying in the short term and incentivizing the next generations who are very, very comfortable with the status quo to build other income streams in the long term.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#238

Post by bobthepanda »

tcp_handshaker wrote: post #125
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

You are missing this interesting, and confidential until now, deployment of Israeli forces in UAE: "Israel sent "Iron Dome" system and troops to UAE" - https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae Also...their central bank governor quietly asked the US Treasury for a dollar swap line...Combined with the Pakistan $3.5B recall and OPEC exit, that is three coordinated moves of a cashflow stressed country...and…

UAE is in a tough spot because while they have diversified from oil, the industries they have diversified into like tourism, air travel and banking, were relying on a halo of safety that turns out to not exist.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#239

Post by post-it »

nradov wrote: post #230
post-it wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

Bullshit. There are many competing auto manufacturers. No one is compelled to buy larger, more expensive vehicles. There are smaller, cheap vehicles available to those who want them. If I want a little penalty box like a Hyundai Elantra or Nissan Sentra the local dealers have base models in stock and ready to sell today. Larger vehicles are more comfortable, safe, and practical (for anyone who doesn't need to worry a…

A Hyundai Elantra of today is significantly bigger than it was ten years ago. It also used to be the second-tier model above the Accent, which was discontinued.

Ditto with the Sentra and the Versa.

This is my point exactly.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#240

Post by post-it »

ndisn wrote: post #229
post-it wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

You can’t convince (almost all) consumers to spend money on something that they do not want.

Of course you can. And for the rest, you just discontinue the product they want so they have no choice.
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