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Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

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Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#231
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> seems quite reasonable considering the Ariane 6 is a non-reusable, low-volume design It’s after subsidies [1]. Actual costs are 4 to 6x Falcon 9, and that’s comparing actual costs today for Falcon 9 to projected costs in the future for Ariane 6. [1] https://www.space.com/europe-ariane-6-rocket-debut-launch

You do know that this article completely forgets to mention if SpaceX got any subsidies? From a quick google search, it seems that this is not the case and I have a feeling that Falcon 9 sticker price is in fact subsidied by the USA. So - why compare apples to apples, when you can compare apples to oranges.

It is not. The sticker price is not subsidized by the state. The state does buy a lot of launches as a consumer. These are often conflated.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having followed the launch industry for 30 years, I can safely tell you that this is the exact line that every competitor (save RocketLabs and the startups fueled by the SpaceX diaspora of engineers) says whenever they are trying to justify their legacy wasteful rockets. Even Rocketlab's CEO had to "eat his hat" when he finally realized that the cost difference was real, that reusability was here to stay, and they ha…

Given that ULA historically purchased engines from Russia, are you suggesting that it was a direct mechanism for transferring tax revenue to Russia companies?

Yes. Deliberately so. They wanted to ensure that rocket and nuclear technology did not proliferate in the 2000s and were willing to directly pay for Russian engineers and knowledge to keep them from going elsewhere.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#233
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it is that impressive anymore. We've been building rockets for decades. Making them return to Earth is peanuts compared to building a self driving car. You can even make a simulation that is 99% accurate without much effort. Also, rocket science is just Newtonian physics. Of course, building a rocket requires a shit-ton of resources, so if anything is impressive then it's the management of those resourc…

> Also, rocket science is just Newtonian physics. Spoken like a true software engineer ;)

Software engineers have a lack of self-esteem when comparing to other STEM disciplines. The reason we see more fuck-ups in software than in other fields is not because software engineers are stupid, but because software is inherently difficult.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The space start-ups are starving, because nobody sees any business opportunities there, and because governments don't care about rockets beyond baseline national security needs. If somebody actually wanted a reusable rocket, the real issue would be engineering, not funding. Even a small country like Finland could run two programs the scale of Ariane 6 with the money it's currently using to support Ukraine.

> space start-ups are starving, because nobody sees any business opportunities there I’ve raised money for and invested in space start-ups. There is a lot of opportunity. There are even more vapid PowerPoint decks. > If somebody actually wanted a reusable rocket, the real issue would be engineering, not funding It’s absolutely a problem of funding. You need to be able to tell a group of highly-demanded engineers with…

The lack of funding reflects the lack of interest. For-profit investors don't see the business opportunity and governments don't see the need. There are other uses for the money, and the people with money don't want better rockets that much. Rockets are not particularly expensive, but they are also not particularly relevant.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is little doubt that it will do so in a few months. The main engines have already been tested successfully on Vulcan, a few months ago.

You’re not really reading what I wrote but ok.

I have read it, maybe you just didn't understand what I said.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#236
post #100

I guess something is better than nothing. But it's a shame to be launching something that seems obsolete from the start

It's not obsolete if it works and there's people paying for it. Most space rockets are decades old tech, calling it obsolete seems pointless.

Obsolete as in it can be competitive or not ...

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#237
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that’s before we start counting in China and, soon, possibly, India. Ariana 6 might be the stupidest civil aerospace project in the world after Boeing’s Starliner.

HN is amazing: Europe does something > Aha it's bad why did they even try Europe doesn't do anything > Aha Europe always late, never innovate, Europe bad

Nonsense. The issue here is that they're doing the wrong thing. SpaceX proved reusable rockets were the future at about the same time Arianne 6 got funding to begin development (2016). They should have cancelled the project and started again with a reusable rocket at that point. Of course they didn't because of politics, but it does mean they did a stupid thing and spent a ton of money on a rocket that was obsolete before it left the drawing board, just like SLS.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that ULA historically purchased engines from Russia, are you suggesting that it was a direct mechanism for transferring tax revenue to Russia companies?

Indirect through ULA, but yes; it's not like Russia is in an alien dimension. Trading with it was fine, at least until recently.

And for anyone who wants to read about Russia in an alien dimension, I can't recommend highly enough Charles Stross's "Merchant Princes" and "Empire Games" series!

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#239
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it would be, in the long term, more cost effective for ESA to contract two or three private European rocket start-ups, like RFA, to build such reusable launch vehicles. To create some competition in price and development speed. Arianespace (ArianeGroup) seems to be "old space" by now, similar to ULA or Boeing in the US.

SpaceX wasn't the first American rocket startup, other ones failed. What makes you think European startups won't fail?

I suggested funding multiple ones.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#240
post #2

Ariane 6 exists so that European countries can get independent access to space between now and 2030s. The launch cost is almost 2x the cost of Falcon 9. Both platforms can lift 22t to LEO. 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar: reusable, RP-1/LOX, Prometheus engine is similar reusable open cycle engine as Merlin with lots of 3D printed parts.

Falcon’s costs are a fiction. SpaceX benefits from massive taxpayer support and uses facilities built by the military and NASA. It’s not a like for like comparison especially give SpaceX keeping its books private and giving no clear public indication of how reusable its rockets really are or their refurb cost. Given Musks history of creative accounting quoting their PR numbers, the ones they pitch congress, as facts…

> massive taxpayer support

When the Forest Service buys a truck from Ford do you also call that "taxpayer support"? The government buys stuff from SpaceX, it hasn't directly subsidized SpaceX for years. The government buys from the lowest bidder, which is almost always SpaceX. For example, NASA estimated that it would have to pay $1.5B to deorbit the ISS. After tender, SpaceX bid and won with an $843M bid. Who is subsidizing who here?

> uses facilities built by the military and NASA.

And for which it pays quite dearly for, on the order of $1M per launch. It's quite clear from Rocket Lab's books that operating their own launch facility is far cheaper than using the Space Force's or NASA's.

> creative accounting quoting their PR numbers,

To win their contracts, SpaceX has had to open their books to both the Space Force and NASA. It's one thing to lie to the press in a tweet, it's quite another to lie to the military in audited books. The press may be gullible, but army accountants are not incompetent and the consequences for lying to the military are not minor.

SpaceX's books are not open, but the amount they receive from the government is very public. It's quite obvious that SpaceX is highly profitable. They receive well under $2B from the government each year, they sell a couple dozen other rocket launches to others for ~$70M apiece, have not raised money for over 18 months, have a payroll approaching $1B per year and are quite obviously sinking multiple billions each year into Starship and Starlink. The only way the numbers add up is if Starlink is ridiculously cheap to build and Falcon is ridiculously cheap to launch.

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