Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends • Hacker News Board

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#231

Post by rjsw » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:14 PM UTC

samstave wrote: post #197

lolinder wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, it doesn't look at all like we can practically expect a popular revolt. For me there are two outcomes to target with the sanctions: * Make life unpleasant enough for the oligarchs that they replace Putin with someone less intent on ruining the nice thing they had going. * Handicap Russia's ability to wage war. This includes eliminating their ability to buy supplies and destroying their morale. It's the…

It would be great if Oligarchs around the world were uncomfortable. This should be and opportunity to catalogue just exactly who the oligarchs are and what are their assets and how are they affected.

Might also be helpful to declare that anything confiscated from an oligarch will be given back to the Russian people/state after everything has calmed down.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#232

Post by pintxo » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:14 PM UTC

I was wondering before if this whole “special operation” is a 1961 thing? Remember der Berlin Wall? The local communists had no compelling story to offer to their population so especiallz the young and well educated voted with their feet and migrated westwards. Essentially leaving the German Democratic Republic with few options, the one they took was basically imprisonment of the remaining population, to prevent any further brain-drain.

Is this whole shit we have witnessed over the last days Putins realization that he has nothing of value to offer to the population?

And that he therefore cannot allow a culturally well connected big western style democracy at his side? With all the connections between Russia and Ukrain, this would be like a massive advertisement what Russians are missing out.

Food for thought.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#233

Post by ushakov » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

mbreese wrote: post #132

Tistron wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everywhere I've seen anyone motivate restrictions on Russian citizens it's been about pushing them to revolt against their government, not about punishing. I don't know whether it makes sense, but it does seem like one of few avenues to try to get rid of putin that has low chance of resulting in atomic war.

It’s not only about revolting, but without a free press, economic sanctions are one way to get people to know that something is going on. Russian citizens may not even know what is happening, but when they suddenly can’t buy thing, when Apple Pay stops working, when costs skyrocket… that gets people to pay attention.

everyone in Russia knows what's going on

but when Apple Pay stops working, when costs skyrocket the blame will be on companies and on the west

take it from ex-Russian

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#234

Post by AnonHP » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

formvoltron wrote: post #156

elboru wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“ Another reason we don't like Russians is” And that’s how wars are maintained. They vs us. Who is we?? How can you dislike millions of people just because they were born inside a border different than yours?

I actually don't have a problem with Russians. Just that as they right now should be walking into Moscow to show their discontent, then I am performing my discontent by not liking Russians, right now.

I’m going to throw in a rhetorical question. If you expect Russians to be walking into Moscow to show their discontent, shouldn’t you be shouting slogans and holding a placard at the nearest Russian embassy to show you’re equally serious?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#235

Post by formvoltron » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #83

formvoltron wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

As an American who has had plenty of disagreement with acts of violence by my government in the past, I have to say I have more sympathy for a Russian who is in this position now. Even in democracies, marching in anti-war protests and voting for anti-war candidates at the next election doesn't always seem to have much impact on the government's behavior, at least in the short term.

No post body was provided.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#236

Post by ericmay » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

therusskiy wrote: post #41

ajross wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government. What's the option, though? Inaction? Sanctions hurt the people because hurting the support base is the only way to exert pressure on those unrepresentative governments. At the end of the day, all governments operate via the consent of the governed, even autocracies. But the expression of that consent gets really ugly the l…

what's going to happen with so many countries / companies cutting Russia off is that it's going to play into Putin's narrative that Russia is surrounded by enemies. Imagine you are a neutral teenager who never cared about politics, then Playstation takes all your games, you don't have access to any of the media sources that can explain the situation (they are all banned now), you can only hear what government tells y…

If the pervasive narrative is that Russia is surrounded by enemies (hence invading Ukraine) anyway then why does it matter? This narrative has been around for awhile, not recently.

And the sanctions also result in oligarchs losing their assets. Want to be an ass and disconnect from the west? Fine. But you’re not taking your toys. They can be in prison together with the people they constantly barrage with these narratives. If sanctions don’t work and not sanctioning doesn’t work, might as well sanction and be done with it.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#237

Post by CapricornNoble » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

skeletal88 wrote: post #163

therusskiy wrote: post #6

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need…

I have a colleague from Russia who moved here a few years ago. But.. still he is using talking-points that come from Kremlin's propaganda, like "The US will fight Russia to the last ukrainian" and "I would feel safer here if we weren't in NATO, this makes us a target for Russia" and "You know that it was promised that NATO wouldn't expand?" and "Your country joined the Soviet Union voluntarily". So.. even when some p…

>>>still he is using talking-points that come from Kremlin's propaganda, like "The US will fight Russia to the last ukrainian"

That's considered "Russian propaganda"? We've managed to goad Putin into grinding up his conventional military in a large-scale war. We've set the Russian economy back decades. And we've so far pulled off both of these, without any NATO member paying a massive price in blood for it. Russian propaganda? More like "Greatest US foreign policy success of the 21st century". I've been really critical of the moves we've made in Europe for the past 10-15 years, but I have to say, if this doesn't escalate into WW3....kudos to the CIA and the State Department for playing the long game and having it work out. But it definitely sucks for the Ukrainians.

I still would have preferred the relationship we had with Russia in the early 2000s. It would have been nice to leverage Russia's geographic position in the inevitable confrontation with China: a bunch of Russian tank divisions under a nuclear umbrella in Siberia would keep China nervous about a vulnerable 2nd front, and perhaps unable to mass combat power against Taiwan/Japan/etc.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#238

Post by lolinder » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

Mikeb85 wrote: post #229

lolinder wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every Russian who leaves is a Russian who won't get conscripted, who will pay no more taxes to Putin. They know what's going on on the inside and can share with the rest of us so we can make informed decisions. And aside from all of that, they no longer have to fear for their lives if they oppose the regime. From both a humanitarian and a strategic perspective, embracing Russian defectors is the very most important t…

> From both a humanitarian and a strategic perspective, embracing Russian defectors is the very most important thing that we can be doing right now that we aren't already doing. The only reason not to do so is hate. No, the most humanitarian thing to do is end a war in which civilians are actually being killed. Not embracing those who supported Putin get to this point but suddenly flee when they're personally inconve…

How does persecuting Russians who flee Putin's regime help end the war sooner?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#239

Post by lowkey » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

dolni wrote: post #21

bluejekyll wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is the exactly why lies and dis/misinformation are so dangerous to society. It makes every source questionable, even one’s like the economist that have tended to give fairly accurate balanced news. The first amendment is a double edged sword, but all false statements need to be challenged so that a free and Democratic society can function properly. The problem is that lies are cheap to produce, and the truth…

Are you suggesting that free speech is responsible for misinformation? The first amendment is absolutely not a double-edged sword. The alternative is STRICTLY worse. You end up with governments, like China's, who lie and challenging that lie is punishable.

Censorship has always been a thing in authoritarian regimes. My concern is that it increasingly an issue in traditional western liberal democracies.

Whether it is by state decree (see Covid), state-subsidized media self-censorship (see Canada), de-platforming (see Google/Twitter/Facebook), or cancel culture - the effects of censorship are equally chilling.

Free speech is only legally protected from government intervention - and only in the US. Canada for example imposes strict limits on allowable speech.

I stand with Elon Musk as a free speech absolutist so I think it is high time we revisit free speech protections beyond their current boundaries. I struggle to call our current system truly free.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#240

Post by jacquesm » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #108

jacquesm wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the…

I think you missed the parent's comment. FTA: "Buses travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga are also fully booked." How do I prove: - This is true without actually seeing the data that buses are fully booked - Yle is a trustworthy media outlet and what they are saying is true - The Finnish government isn't booking the buses and then telling the media that buses are booked For the record - I beli…

I don't actually care what your personal threshold for believing something is, I care about mine, and mine is more than satisfied.

People say the same stuff about the number of Russian dead claimed by the Ukrainian defense forces. Are they exaggerating? Probably yes. Is it with a factor that changes the facts in a meaningful way? Probably not, given the portion that has been independently verified. Even if that's all there is then it is already enough to count as fact, and it very, very likely isn't all there is.

Something similar is happening here: the amount of evidence that Russian cosmopolitans are reading the writing on the wall is ample, it is reflected in the restrictions in how much capital Russians can take with them abroad, it is reflected in the number of trains running (those things are pretty hard to fake) and it is reflected in all of the personal stories and cries for help from Russians to try to get settled where ever they arrived.

Personally I won't give them quarter until the last of the Ukrainian refugees has been settled, but I do believe the fact that many Russians are fleeing Russia while they can. But they are fleeing for economic reasons, Ukrainians are fleeing so they can stay alive.