China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline • Hacker News Board

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#231

Post by SubiculumCode » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:44 PM UTC

alert0 wrote: post #98

It is just where we are in the long term debt cycle. The US dollar will devalue in the next decade, but we aren't facing a collapse or anything. We are out of monetary tools (interest rates near zero) to stave off deflation, so we will turn to fiscal tools (printing money). This is a good thing as it will make the US more competitive on exports. We may lose our global reserve currency status but that is not a sustain…

Debt in our own fiat currency is not a problem unless it causes inflation. If anything, we have underrealized our economic potential by artificial monetary constraints.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#232

Post by anthonygd » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:46 PM UTC

It does seem like a safe bet.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#233

Post by slowhand09 » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:47 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #44

j_walter wrote: post #35

They are probably not wrong. When you look at the infighting within the US that is front page news every day...the decline is in full swing. People care less about how to actually improve the country than they do about trying to hold entire professions accountable for the actions of a few (not just cops)...then we are focused on the wrong things. Spending hundreds of days protesting something instead of putting that…

> so far in 2021 there have been more homicides in Portland than there were in 2017 and 2018 and we are on track for over 100 homicides this year Out of curiosity, have any other items than "defund the police" happened in, say, March 2020 through the present, that might've affected crime rates?

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/google-shadow-bans-sear...

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#234

Post by pasquinelli » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:50 PM UTC

vict7 wrote: post #187

felle_realist wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is the definition of the term "progressive". If you take it to mean "forward-looking" then yes, being progressive is a sure strategy for success in the long run, even if such success may come at a price in the short term. This, however, is not what most current "progressive" ideologies do, instead of looking forward they often look backward in time in search for grievances in need of redress. This, i…

Identify politics has been on the rise for a long time. The right heavily contribute to identity politics. See: openly racist GQP leaders, transgender bathroom ban, mexican "caravans" conveniently appearing in the news around election time, satanic panic, homophobia, muslim ban, "Kung flu". In no way can you place the blame for the rise of identity politics squarely on progressives. I get the feeling that most people…

it doesn't even matter. this whole discussion is people blaming the material decline of the west on their cultural hobby horse. basically, things you don't like on twitter is the cause, according to the comments here. i think we're totally blinkard by culture.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#235

Post by SubiculumCode » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:50 PM UTC

EricE wrote: post #38

lol - they aren't just betting - they are aiding and abetting through their sycophants in the media, academia and amazingly big business too. While we argue about right/left/dem/republican they continue to divide and conquer through attrition. And we are letting it happen right under our collective noses.

An internet that is open to our geopolitical adversaries is a U.S. weakness, not a strength. It's like inviting our adversaries to war with us in our own territory.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#236

Post by bruiseralmighty » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:51 PM UTC

I mean the US is going to shit, but it's important to ask: "Compared to what?" Our demographical outlook is actually much better than any other developed nation.

China's economy is based on the export of manufacturing goods. We are their main customer. More importantly, we are set up to be their only main customer for the next generation at least due to birth rates.

Every other developed nation has had a declining birth-rate while ours grew and then remained stable after the end of WWII. That means that Europe, Russia, and China are all set to become Japan as their populations age out of the workforce. This is the true cost of the 1-child policy and it will reverse their entire economy.

China will have to begin importing masses of foreign labor to make up for the shortfall. But the people buying all those goods will either be Americans or their allies in India. Keep in mind that Americans are split 50/50 on whether mass immigration is a good idea or not. China is unified against the idea. They also have far more unmarried young men due to that same policy. If you think we have a racial-supremacist problem in America I invite you to be patient.

There is simply no other country rich and populated enough to fund the Chinese manufacturing economy other than the American consumer economy.

I agree with the general sentiment that America is in decline, but every other developed nation is set to decline faster than we are. This gives us a relative advantage even if in absolute terms the world is going to shit.

China may still come out on top. Their leadership has vision and the political ability to plan more than 2 years in advance (really nice to have in a government), but it will be at least another 20 before they achieve undisputed supremacy.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#237

Post by pasquinelli » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:51 PM UTC

felle_realist wrote: post #204

vict7 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Identify politics has been on the rise for a long time. The right heavily contribute to identity politics. See: openly racist GQP leaders, transgender bathroom ban, mexican "caravans" conveniently appearing in the news around election time, satanic panic, homophobia, muslim ban, "Kung flu". In no way can you place the blame for the rise of identity politics squarely on progressives. I get the feeling that most people…

I do not "blame" the rise of identity politics on anyone, I merely point out that it has been taken up by many people who consider themselves to be "progressive" and that it, in combination with the adoption of critical theory - specifically the practice of "deconstruction" - leads to a witches brew of regressive and destructive ideologies.

yeah, but do material realities factor in at all, or do empires rise on fall on attitude alone?

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#238

Post by gokhan » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:54 PM UTC

Daho0n wrote: post #23

It's very hard to disagree IMO. The west is in decline and unless something catastrophic happens in PRC or war breaks out (also pretty catastrophic) I can't see any future where the PRC isn't going to at least become on par with the US soon but most likely it will succeed it as top dog. The only question in my mind is where do the EU end up in all this and if Russia will become closer with PRC or EU. IMO the biggest…

This will continue until the people of the West feel threatened by China. And then, I think it will be a new playing field for Chine where they need to lay low and do fancy PR, which is not something they're capable of. During the height of the pandemic, Chinese ambassadors all over the world handled public relations terribly. We'll see worst when they need to speak directly to the people of other nations when things get tense.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#239

Post by j_walter » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:57 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #87

j_walter wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the gun violence reduction team was disbanded. Since then the number of shootings has skyrocketed. Police are in such disarray and completely disrespected that they don't even go into certain neighborhoods anymore.

I'll be a bit more direct. Claiming "defund the police" is the obvious cause of an increase in crime while completely ignoring the global pandemic and its economic/employment effects and their resulting impact on crime is confirmation bias.

OK, well reducing the police is hardly an appropriate action in the middle of a crime spike. Ted Wheeler said the shootings started trending up a few months before the disbanded the gun violence reduction team...so is that better or worse? The team was disbanded because the stats came out that almost half the people pulled over by the team were black...so it's immediately racist. However half of the shooting victims are black and more than half the suspects are black. The shootings occur in primarily black neighborhoods...which is where the team focused their efforts. I guess to avoid the perception of being racist they would rather get rid of something that was working and let people be killed.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#240

Post by j_walter » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:59 PM UTC

remirk wrote: post #97

j_walter wrote: post #35

They are probably not wrong. When you look at the infighting within the US that is front page news every day...the decline is in full swing. People care less about how to actually improve the country than they do about trying to hold entire professions accountable for the actions of a few (not just cops)...then we are focused on the wrong things. Spending hundreds of days protesting something instead of putting that…

You are saying you would like people to actually improve the country, but are saying defunding the police counters that. When people say they'll want to defund the police, they are not saying there should be no police. People want a different police. There are structural problems that are not easily fixed, as we have seen. Making a new police-like organisation from the ground up is a way to fix those structural probl…

Destroying inner cities is not helping. Pulling money away from the police in the middle of crime spiking and giving it to experimental task forces that have little in the way of experience is not a great idea. Portland just decided that to combat all of the shootings and crime happening in the city's parks they will add more unarmed park rangers. This should go well...