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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#231

Post by inopinatus »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #85
Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

We should take a page from Jonathan Swift and consider eating them.

Counterpoint; quand les pauvres n'auront plus rien à manger, ils mangeront les riches.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#232

Post by mr_woozy »

snowwrestler wrote: post #94
young_unixer wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of that problem is that most nations have a pension system where the active work force pays for the pension of the elder instead of each person paying their own pension by saving/investing troughout their lives.

Government and private retirement strategies both rely on cash transfers from younger workers. In a government system, the younger workers pay taxes which are transferred to retirees. In a private retirement system, younger workers are the purchasing counterparties as retirees sell off their investments. Retirement financing in general relies on future economic growth for future cashflow. That said, you don't necessa…

You'd still need someone to sell that 20% more product (or service) your worker is producing and with 15% less people your entire market has just shrunk.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#233

Post by corysama »

sumedh wrote: post #138
40four wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very interesting, and unexpected at the surface level. Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed about the world population getting out of control, consuming all the resources, polluting the planet into oblivion, etc. I was expecting to read about medical/health reasons why men and women are literally becoming less fertile, but it's not that. It sounds like it's a side effect of countries/s…

> Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed Which is still true, if the billion Indians and Billion Chinese start having American lifestyles, that is just not sustainable for the planet.

I fully expect the Indian and Chinese population coming into wealth will go through a period of fairly outrageous conspicuous consumption. I have a hope that it will be fast-forwarded compared to the past 70 years of American history. Hopefully after a decade-long warmup and another decade of settling in, the novelty will wear off and there will be a move away from focusing on "More Stuff!" and toward focusing on "Less Clutter, More Experiences!"

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#234

Post by rayiner »

kovac wrote: post #145
koolba wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

Perhaps there's some truth to what you say if we consider couples who choose not to have kids at all. However, I think the cases that choose to have just one or two children are more common than those who choose not to have kids at all. I think financial situation better explains why people would stop at one kid rather than 3.

Right: https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FT_15.... The vast majority of women (90% in 1976, 86% in 2013) have at least one child. But the lifetime number of births has fallen from 3.1 in 1976 to 2.1 in 2013. This reflects changes in the perceived optimal family size: https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FT_15...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#235

Post by ggggtez »

manquer wrote: post #197

One aspect this article does not address at all is the massive sex ratio imbalance in India and China (for different reasons) at around 1,100 men for every 1000 women. This means there are 100 million girls less today in these countries alone, finding a suitable partner becomes harder and there are lesser number of couples will be there in the first place who can have kids The 2.1 replacement is perhaps not adequate…

Miscarriages are not births. If the birth rate remains at 2.1 you can have as many miscarriages as you want, and the population will still increase.

The same with Hikkikomori, and gay people. As long as there is 2.1 children born for every woman, then the population will increase.

The only factor which you mention that is correct is that in a society that murders female babies, then yes, you will need more than a 2.1 birthrate. And as the article mentions, India is expected to grow over the next 80 years. So they clearly have a fertility rate that exceeds whatever number they need.

I think you are confusing the fertility rate, with how many children a family with children would have. The denominator is different, and that's a completely different issue, but perhaps one that is worth thinking about.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#236

Post by Guy2020 »

mr_woozy wrote: post #207
snowwrestler wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO a greater magic trick is convincing folks like you that these rich people are actually powerful enough to control fundamental behaviors like sex and reproduction. It's a profoundly dis-empowering and anti-democratic message, which is of course why a lot of those rich people are happy for you to believe it. The reality is this: in every instance we know of, making education and birth control available to women (no…

Wouldn't rich people or powerful organizations be able to influence family planning decisions in exactly the way you just described? Funding cheap ubiquitous birth control on a global scale.

Bill Gates has literally been trying to curb the population of Africa for decades. There's blatant evidence of the rich engaging in population control. This is not to say it's a bad thing...per say...but to say it isn't happening isn't aligned with the facts.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#238

Post by syshum »

dougabug wrote: post #20
syshum wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and no. if you look at the date though the places with the most "abundance" or wealth is where the fertility rate is collapsing. It is largely down to that wealth that people are having less children.

Couldn’t this also be construed as a good thing? One outcome might wealth will be available to take care of the remaining population.

"Good" and "Bad" are down to perspective and is very subjective. Especially when talking about this issue.

There is a strong correlation also with educational levels and birth rates. the more educated the person, means both they are more successful monetarily, and they are less likely to have children, or have only a single child which is less than replacement (every child has 2 parents)

So is large numbers of uneducated people having children that statically will also be uneducated as well a "good" thing for humanity? I dont know have you watched the movie Idiocracy?

Natrually then most people will say "well we just need to educate that generation, get those nations / people educated" , this however does not solve the problem of birth rates because as you educate more and more people, as you bring more and more people to success they will also stop having children. If you reach the utopia where everyone in society has equal levels of education, then it is very likely you will see population crash.

Now technology could solve for that, extended life / extended fertility span for women for example would certainly inverse the population issue.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#239

Post by Shaigyheart »

mindfulhack wrote: post #74
dutch3000 wrote: post #12

another chicken little article. worthless speculation about the future. who knows what will happen if the population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will be a positive for the environment. at some point the ponzi scheme, infinite growth society must have it’s day of reckoning

I support this sentiment 100%. In human population, we should be aiming for quality, not quantity. Quality also means diversity. If higher quantity unavoidably brings a higher proportion of human suffering, then we have no other choice but to promote quality over quantity. I fear for the future of our species. Our evolutionary instinct to multiply combined with the tech we've created is now bringing this planet to th…

Oh what is meant by positive way exist.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#240

Post by lotsofpulp »

bing_dai wrote: post #183
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around. Unfortunately, even though kids are needed for society to function and keep going, not much of the cost of raising kids is socialized, at least in the states. Day care for one kid where I live is $1700/month and rising, you have to be rich to afford it.

"Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around." I do not agree with that. In my opinion, technology advancements (say, driverless cars) will make reduce the amount of young people needed to support for older people.

I have yet to see any technology that will change a bedpan in the next 30 years. Much less provide the most important component to an older person’s mental (and hence in some ways physical) health - which is the company of other humans, family and friends, and typically grand children and other decendants.
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