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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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231–240 of 877 posts

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#231
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

>The bar (which is already dismally low) will have to be lowered further for them to graduate, and how/when will it ever be raised back again?

You don't have to lower the bar. There are other options. There is no fundamental law of physics that says a generation has to graduate at age X, so we -- the society -- should be perfectly able to delay that process for a year, instead of lowering the bar.

That said, there's something deeply wrong either with the society as a whole or with the HN audience if you read "poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food" and you say that the biggest long term problem is the lowering of the bar because kids skipped school.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The essential motivation for people to want to feed their families/pay bills is completely logical, but it's important to keep in perspective that the virus doesn't care about any of these things. We don't need to look too far back in history to see that ending isolation in a pandemic too early can have huge consequences (much bigger than an economic slowdown/unemployment).

I am against ending the lockdown early as well and disagree in no uncertain terms with those who are trying to minimize the pandemic. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to start wondering whether the economic and political damage may ultimately outweigh the lives saved. If anyone thinks populism spawning extremists and getting them into public office was bad now , imagine the tsunami of public anger and populis…

The economic damage at least was always going to happen. It's a direct consequence of the pandemic itself (and people's natural fear-based reactions to isolate themselves to reduce their risk).

It's not like you can relax social distancing and have the economy do well, especially not when the death toll really starts ramping up and people fear for their lives every time they leave home. There isn't any choice available in which there isn't a bad recession.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#233
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

> Missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. Which subject can they study at school that they cannot study at home?

I have several kids at home, all at different elementary grade levels and it’s not at all easy to keep them on track, motivated, and actually learning something while trying to get work done myself. The kids have been cooped up and its hard to keep the kids from bickering. Schools are not helping. They are giving assignments but telling kids things won’t be graded or are optional, etc... so kids don’t want to do some things. We have to undo that and push them to do it.

Given how competitive our society has become I am terrified that we will get behind.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#234

I wish I could say I disagree, but to be perfectly honest, I was fully expecting a recession last year. As someone may have already mentioned though, between FED basically keeping the market afloat, stimulus working its way through the economy and dollar still riding as a safe haven, it is not that surprising that US economy did not crash, while a good chunk of population is at home and out of commission. The thing t…

> The thing that worries me is that attempting to prolong it as long as we are, we are basically setting up a stage for a greater depression Why?

Revolutions happen when the gap between public pretension and private reality becomes too large.

The same could be said of stock market crashes.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#235
post #172
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

You probably know this, but worth saying just in case: you should look into unemployment assistance. I believe that the CARES Act applies in case of reduced employment, and the $600/wk benefit is always given in full.

Assuming the state’s computer systems and unemployment department personnel can handle it. Which they obviously can’t since millions and millions of people have requested unemployment assistance but are met with error messages and busy signals on the phone, and don’t have the money they need.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#236
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently So, down 10% from the previous bubble. > 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies Good point. Dow is also up almost as much though. > 3. The market is always very forward looking. I may be cynical, but I see perhaps 2 to 3 years to regain the jobs we are losing, to see the employment rate return to earlier levels. That's years of depressed s…

> So the market is looking to, what, 2025 or something? Well, another point not mentioned is, where else are you going to park your money? Interest rates globally are basically <= 0, real estate may be a dicey proposition for many years to come, bond yields are garbage, so... stock market. And considering so many companies are selling at a discount (regardless of whether or not you think that’s the case), dumping mon…

Could you share your thoughts on why real estate may be dicey in the years to come?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#237
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can print more money right. Money isn't real. Death and this virus are. How about we just take care of those who need taking care of during this disaster. How about we put all national efforts to keep the lights on, providing safe housing and keeping the food supply chains intact. Instead we are worried about corporate quarterly profits and when the Ruby Tuesday can reopen, because somehow serving burgers for $3/h…

So taking care of those who need an income to keep their house is calling them "idiot, stupid MAGA, selfish, moron" on Twitter or in the media in general? Please read the comment you're replying to. I don't see anything contradicting the points you're making.

why should anyone try to "contradict" what amounts to you posting anecdotes about people being mean to you on twitter?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#238
post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

I missed pretty much the same amount of school during SARS in Hong Kong in 2003. This was before any sort of remote learning was possible, I didn’t do school work for pretty much a whole semester. I didn’t feel that this held me back at all, however there were a few key differences in my end: - I was in 4th grade where school was less rigorous - I went to a private international school - While my parents were busy wo…

I expect it's a bigger problem for high schoolers in general--especially seniors if it ends up meaning some students don't graduate and just drop out.

If I think back to my grade school experience, I was admittedly a pretty good student but I can't really imagine any single semester being all that critical. (And, in fact, I ended up skipping 8th grade.)

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Literally no one anywhere wants central planning, no one wants America to be anything like Venezuela, these are fevered fantasies of uninformed minds, so feel free to put these lines to bed permanently.

"Essential business" designations are central planning, and I've seen reasonably influential people argue that we could keep them going indefinitely if we had to.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

blaming "Blue Checkmarks" for the fact that people are being victimized by capitalism during a pandemic makes me sick to my stomach. What a hopeless year this has been.

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