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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

The primary deployment potential for self-driving cars is long haul freight, which could be done exclusively via the interstate system.

If we're going to beacon up a road, they easily make the most sense.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#232

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

It's my belief that self driving cars will, for a very significant time in the future, still need to make human control possible. Think about the vast amounts of rural roads -- dirt, gravel. Anyone who's ever taken a 4x4 out to a trailhead in the desert knows that sometimes those roads don't even exist except on a map. Washouts can be a weekly problem in certain seasons. But you don't start in the desert, right? You have to take highways at a minimum, and quite likely national interstates as well, to get to the desert roads.

Think about attending a festival or fair with grass parking. You follow a line of cars, pull up to a guy who's standing out in the field. He looks around and says, "Why don't you go park next to that red Toyota two rows over?" Sure, that part is not "on the road," but certainly I had to take highways to get there.

Maybe I, as an urban-dwelling American, only need functionality like this a few times per year. But there are significant chunks of this country and the world in general where this is part of daily life. Adopting fully self-driving cars without manual driving modes is going to take extreme amounts of change and adaptation, not only technologically but also culturally. I would recommend spending a few weeks in the deep country if you want to fully understand some of the difficulties in reaching level 5.

If the time scale you're talking about is on the order of 50 years, I could maybe see it. But I do think there will always be a need for personal vehicles with some level of manual control.

Beyond all that, however, this article to me seems like 90% clickbait. The statement merely was "Maybe it will never happen," and it was stated in the context of a discussion of the difficulty in reaching level 5 autonomy. But now we have articles throwing headlines up saying "VW Exec admits fully self driving cars may NEVER happen." Feels a little disingenuous.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

If there is one thing we can be sure of, looking at the past couple decades of wireless tech, it's that there will be a profusion of mutually incompatible standards, each spanning multiple HW generations. It may not experience the same physical wear, but it will be an expensive maintenance issue nonetheless.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#234

Level 5 means no human intervention, under any circumstance. Ice, snow, night, fog, unmarked roads, tunnels, mega-urban, isolated rural, parking lots/structures, etc, etc. I think he's correct. It's hard to think of any technology that works without human intervention whatsoever, no matter the conditions. We've had autopilot for decades, we're certainly not flying planes without pilots. Or even getting them from runw…

How much do pilots actually pilot vs how much do they just assume responsibility? I.e. I as a passenger feel much safer knowing that there's someone actually responsible to prevent me from dying (because if the plane crashes, the pilot dies with me), not just some C_O suits pushing PR through legal trying to gaslight the public and avoid any culpability (cough Boeing cough).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the value is in taxi services I’m imagining how gross a taxi would be that doesn’t have a driver to provide passengers a low level of behaviour moderation.

If the taxi is soiled then the next passenger indicates this via the app. The taxi is sent for cleaning and the previous passenger is charged for the cleaning. Also, there will be cameras inside in case it has to be proven who made the car dirty. If people have to pay the cleaning bill they will be careful not to make a mess.

That sounds horrendous, honestly.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#236

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…

Yep. Intercity traffic is a problem we solved in the 1800s.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#237

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

The government's endgame for restricting individual liberties and privacy as much as possible would be only allowing self driving cars. As a result, I regretfully agree that this is inevitable and wholly depressing.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#238
post #225

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

I think I am going to side with VW on this. I have always been skeptical of fully autonomous vehicles, and I do not believe they will _ever_ exist on the roads that currently stand. Driving safely in all conditions without aid from a human is simply too complex a task for code that can be audited and verified. If some AI model that's been trained on a billion years of driving experience shows promise, but it is some…

You may not be getting in that car, but I certainly will.

After all, every driver on the road today is an incomprehensible black box where not only do we not know the parameters, we don't even know the function they're parameterizing. Every instance functions differently, and our testing procedures have woefully low coverage.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#239
post #178
post #9

Despite that, he's confident in VW's ability to make a Level 4 autonomous vehicle, saying that the upcoming I.D. Buzz electric van will be the first VW to receive the technology. He's poo-pooing level 5 autonomous driving and says that they just about have a level 4 autonomous vehicle? This article makes no sense. Honestly, the CEO of my company has very little idea of the details of the technology that we produce. I…

Consider the Osborne effect. And consider that this person has a strong vested interest in making sure potential VW customers does not decide to delay their car purchase decision in the hope of getting a more automated solution next year or the year after. Maybe he's right, maybe he's not. But either way it'd be dumb of him to claim level 5 autonomous cars were right around the corner.

> Consider the Osborne effect.

Agree completely. It would be suicidal (in a business sense) to say that Level 5 was right around the corner right when you're on the verge of rolling out Level 4.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By offering laminar rather than turbulent flow. That's only going to work on roads that are AI-only.

There are already cities where buying a car is difficult and/or expensive because of traffic concerns. Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, ... I don’t see an AI requirement to be a huge hurdle for those cities.

There are other actors on the road, namely pedestrians and cyclists. Unless we're going to remove the right of citizens to the street at all, they will be present and will need to be accommodated for.
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