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China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

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Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you went way overboard toward the end. Only 37% (and declining) of China's GDP is from trade.. and only Meaning, if all trade between US and China was cut off tomorrow, they would only lose 7% of GDP. So how do you get from that to 5X? Seems like you have a model of the Chinese economy from a decade ago. Fact is, China is much larger now, and much less dependent on trade today. Also keep in mind, a good porti…

I didn’t go into the 20-30% loss in GDP in detail, but it factors in loss of millions of manufacturing and management jobs, fake/wasteful GDP boosting stopped, loss of FDI, capital outflow, debt deleveraging, 20-30% further drop in Yuan, etc etc

But where is that coming from? It seems to me you're just throwing out a disaster scenario that isn't backed up by the numbers.

China is much larger and more diversified than you seem to be giving them credit.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#232

Extremely one sided comments, with a US centric view. The world is not the US, and HN readers are not only US citizens, so let me express a different point of view. Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. HN readers want fair trade. What is needed: fair trading rules, fair IP rules, fair capital structures, and a fair currency. Tackling some of the unfair trade practices does not address all those issues. In particular i…

Of course US citizens want a president that looks out for US interests. To think otherwise is laughable and naive. I want the president to fight for us!

As I said above, you are entitled to defend your interests.

Simply do not claim it is somehow about fairness.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#233
post #151

Extremely one sided comments, with a US centric view. The world is not the US, and HN readers are not only US citizens, so let me express a different point of view. Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. HN readers want fair trade. What is needed: fair trading rules, fair IP rules, fair capital structures, and a fair currency. Tackling some of the unfair trade practices does not address all those issues. In particular i…

>Assumption: Trump wants fair trade Where are you getting that from? Trump wants to keep his promise to working class workers that he'll bring their manufacturing jobs back from China.

> Where are you getting that from?

From his mouth?

Not that that would be a reliable source, I concede that ...

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#234

Extremely one sided comments, with a US centric view. The world is not the US, and HN readers are not only US citizens, so let me express a different point of view. Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. HN readers want fair trade. What is needed: fair trading rules, fair IP rules, fair capital structures, and a fair currency. Tackling some of the unfair trade practices does not address all those issues. In particular i…

So where are you from?

Not from the US.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though the US are China's biggest trading partner, US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% of China's total trade. China is still trading with other countries. While it may take a hit from US companies pulling some manufacturing out of China, some of those will be replaced by other - both Chinese and foreign - companies. Especially other foreign companies operating in China will profit from reduced competition f…

"The US will have to bootstrap a lot of manufacturing to replace Chinese labor." They just have to move to cheaper countries to replace Chinese labor. One time upfront asset cost, but lower expense over time. "US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% China's total trade" Once China is not part of the trade flow between US and X country (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc), the total trade for China will fall even more th…

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Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#236
post #119

Extremely one sided comments, with a US centric view. The world is not the US, and HN readers are not only US citizens, so let me express a different point of view. Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. HN readers want fair trade. What is needed: fair trading rules, fair IP rules, fair capital structures, and a fair currency. Tackling some of the unfair trade practices does not address all those issues. In particular i…

> Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. Invalid Assumption: Trump has any understanding of cause-effect. This is China's problem, right now. Trump doesn't have a specific purpose , so there is no pain point you can drive back at. China should have just tariffed some meaningless stuff, rolled out the propaganda machine, and just let it go. Never wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.

Trump is destroying international trade, with the goal of increasing an already tilted playing field even more in the US's interest. And it has found a good lever to push, so this will work in the medium term. Basically, he is discounting short term pain for long term gain, betting that other leaders are not crazy enough to step up the conflict beyond trade, and that everybody will prefer to accept Trump's demands rather than using the next levers at their disposal. Which are:

1) the dollar

2) military conflict

We'll see

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#237
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you understand what you are saying here. Yes, the U.S. has the world's reserve currency _because_ it allows unrestricted foreign capital inflows and has a long respect for property rights and rule of law. Try, as a foreigner, buying a house in China. It's illegal. Try, as a foreigner, to buy a house in the U.S. -- no problem. The U.S. opens it's markets to the rest of the world to purchase American asse…

Your whole argument comes down to "the dollar is overvalued". What does this mean? Bad things and good things for the US. You are not going to mention the good things, so I will. For starters, you are using worthless (overvalued) papers to acquire real goods. The American consumer is getting a bargain. You are also able to buy foreign assets at firesale prices (yes, for all your grandstanding, the US is not the only…

> To summarize: the US has enjoyed unfair, enourmous trade advantages for decades. It has been indulgent with its finances because the market has allowed it to be overspend. And now it wants the world to increase its already existing advantages, by claiming for "fair trade".

No, so this is where you are getting signs confused. An overvalued dollar is the same as having a trade deficit. Arguing to reduce that trade deficit is the same as arguing for a weaker dollar. The argument goes "the dollar is too strong and it should be weaker", not "you are saying the dollar is too strong and then you want it weaker also?? How dare you ask for both!" When you make these types of arguments, it worries me because it makes it sound like you aren't groking that I am advocating for a cure to a disease.

> Your whole argument comes down to "the dollar is overvalued".

Well, I think my argument is explaining _why_ we have a stronger dollar -- because we have open capital markets while our trading partners do not. This creates an asset demand for dollars that increases total demand for dollars beyond that which would be consistent with balanced trade.

> You are not going to mention the good things, so I will.

I guess I'm old school in thinking that any systemic distortion is a net harm. For example, you may not realize this, but the strong dollar doesn't actually allow us to consume more, because it reduces our income and forces government benefit spending to bridge the gap. If you look at patterns of household consumption, they have not gone up -- the big gain in consumption was higher healthcare costs, but that's a price inflation thing. Basically those areas that lose out to globalization end up receiving social security disability dollar for dollar.

Next, the trade deficit is primarily offshoring, so instead of buying a wrench made in the U.S., we are buying an american branded wrench made in China. How many chinese brands can you name? You are buying the same american products, except they are no longer made here.

But, it's the same wrench, and in real terms it costs the same. We are not getting an extra wrench, there is no "extra consumption" -- there is just loss of domestic production followed up with increased foreign purchases as large numbers of formerly productive people drop out of the labor force and rely on government assistance. We just stopped producing something domestically and bought it overseas. It's not extra consumption.

How can we afford to buy it? Well, it's those extra government benefit expenditures to make up for all the income lost, together with lower interest rates from foreign demand for our assets and then we get asset bubbles as a side effect. China, more than anyone else, was responsible for the great recession.

That extra government debt also crowds out public spending on public goods -- take a look at our hollowed out cities. So, on net, we are not enjoying any more consumption, rather the ability of our nation to produce is slowly being dismantled and shipped overseas. That's an unmitigated bad.

It is also destabilizing, politically, as we have large swaths of the country that are being written off and this breeds radicalism. Also, it's sad to turn our backs on our fellow americans who worked in factories that have been shutdown and are now living on food stamps and meager benefit payments in broken down cities.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Once China is not part of the trade flow between US and X country (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc), the total trade for China will fall even more than 18%. If those are actually further up the value chain leading to exports to the US (as you seem to suggest), those would largely be imported goods. Edit: Moot point really. Those would just be a consequence of manufacturing happening in China. It's better to have a…

"If those are actually further up the value chain leading to exports to the US (as you seem to suggest), those would largely be imported goods." The Chinese factories that produce goods destined for US, also produce goods for other countries, leading to trade between China and those countries. When factories move to Malaysia or Vietnam, those trades disappear. "as proven by the fact that plenty of brands have no trou…

"30-40%" is literally all exports from China. You're saying that if the US doesn't trade with them, there won't be a single buyer of Chinese goods anywhere in the world? That's pretty far fetched.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But still cheaper than the US. I don't see iPhones being made in the US anytime soon, there are many places in Asia other than China that would be higher up the list than the states.

I don't think any other Asia countries has same scale of labor, supply chain and infrastructure to manufacture the goods with tremendous demand like iPhone. It's not just cheap labor, it involves a whole manufacture ecosystem.

Taiwan, Japan, Korea all have the infrastructure and expertise. China is a huge market, but iPhones still are considered imports because they are built in SEZs anyways.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#240
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess)... I agree with your conclusion but not your map; I see China investing and stepping up ag purchases from Brazil sub-saharan Africa; increasing the militarization of oil-producing countries, and exporting cheap products to Europe, Africa, South America and their sou…

"The US will be forced to pay more for everything" I'm assuming your assumption is because China is taking over all of the resources/production capabilities around the world? I don't think that can even remotely happen. Again, lots of multinationals are already 30% in Vietnam, Malaysia, or India. Companies can source ag or oil from plenty of non-Chinese sources. The consumers have barely felt the supply chain shifts.…

You would be surprised at how much reshoring and US factories automation have occurred in the last few years in US. It will increase in scope after this current round of tariffs.

Here's real manufacturing output: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS

Here's durable and non-durable goods manufacturing employment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS31006013 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS32006013

Notice they are lower than before the 2008 recession. The recession that is now a decade old.

In comparison, here's imports of goods and services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IEAMGSN And here's imports of goods from China: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IMPCH

Reshoring? I'm not so sure about that overall. It's great that US manufacturing is recovering though.

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