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Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

steveblank.com

231–240 of 379 posts

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#231

Working class people are being subjected to ultra efficient hypercapitalism, as in Uber drivers discovering they worked for free when they need to purchase a new car. Meanwhile Wall Street has been bailed out 2 times in the last 15 years alone with monetary policy. How many people went to jail? (And they haven’t learned a thing, on the contrary and quite spectacularly so.) If you want to know where the tech bubble co…

It's interesting that you identify ultra efficient hyper capitalism as the problem, then point the finger at Wall Street traders betting on mortgage backed securities. They really have nothing to do with each other. To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers. It's programmers that allowed Uber to turn the inefficient and leisurely taxi industry into the Uber/Lyft rat ra…

There are strong and opposite forces at work.

Hyper-capitalism in the form of efficiency gains made possible by software-driven matching algorithms in markets that, when productivity is higher, don't need/warrant these efficiency gains. Such as the formalized platforms for the micro sharing of cars (Uber), personal living spaces (Airbnb), and labor (TaskRabbit, Mechanical Turk, Fiverr, etc.). We currently do more efficiency-shaving than actual new product building, so programmers are in high demand, but programmers aren't to blame. It's just business.

Then there's the hyper-socialism of government-back asset purchases in response to the 2008 financial crisis. For example the $700B in Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds were used to purchase equity in financial institutions and other important institutions, giving the government part-ownership of major banks, insurance companies, auto manufacturers, etc. - recapitalizing them so they could begin to shed toxic assets. Thankfully TARP is closed out and the government got paid back, with interest, so we closed the book on mass government ownership of private assets back in 2014.

Technically, the biggest boost to the economy - $4.5T of mortgage-backed securities, bonds, and assets by the Federal Reserve's 3 waves of QE - shouldn't be considered socialism, because the Federal Reserve is an independent, non-government entity. [1]

But it certainly feels like hyper-socialism because it undermines of the organizing principle of a democratic society - citizens should have both the right and the duty to elect officials to act on their behalf, and hold them accountable. Especially in such an important organization as a central bank, which basically plans and attempts to control major economic variables such as the rates of inflation and unemployment.

In the end, I believe that the governors of the Fed made the right call to bail out banks through lowering the FFR and engaging in QE. It probably saved many people's lives, without exaggeration.

Who knows what the hell the public would have voted for if they had direct representation in the Federal Reserve. If people voted for change over stability, many would have ended up shooting themselves in the feet. Ala Trump trying to remove healthcare subsidies for many of his voters.

But TARP and QE also set a terrible precedent. The bailouts undermined the idea/feeling of "economic freedom" that is probably the central and most powerful idea the United States of America has going for it. No taxation without representation? What about no bailouts without representation?

[1] Creation chartered by Congress, with the president appointing governors, but with monetary policy decisions taking effect without the approval of Congress or the Executive branch, does not receive funding from Congress, governors' terms span multiple presidential/congressional terms.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#232

Working class people are being subjected to ultra efficient hypercapitalism, as in Uber drivers discovering they worked for free when they need to purchase a new car. Meanwhile Wall Street has been bailed out 2 times in the last 15 years alone with monetary policy. How many people went to jail? (And they haven’t learned a thing, on the contrary and quite spectacularly so.) If you want to know where the tech bubble co…

It's interesting that you identify ultra efficient hyper capitalism as the problem, then point the finger at Wall Street traders betting on mortgage backed securities. They really have nothing to do with each other. To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers. It's programmers that allowed Uber to turn the inefficient and leisurely taxi industry into the Uber/Lyft rat ra…

You speak as if customers do not also enjoy lower prices, faster delivery, lower fares, wider choices, etc. All this is also enabled by the very same platforms.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Now that I'm a programmer I can theoretically get a job in pretty much any American city I choose, and probably negotiate a starting/moving bonus" Try getting a job in Athens Georgia with equal or greater salary than you are earning now in SF

Not true. You can probably get a job most anyplace that actually has employers who need programmers, but you'll find starting bonus and moving expenses are limited to major tech areas and employers. Where I live there's a university that employs a lot of tech folks, and several private tech companies, but nobody pays for relocation, and salaries are $50K - $100K or maybe a little more at the very top end. A good real…

Not to mention a good accountant, good lawyer, decent optometrist, decent dentist, decent doctor.

Not only do lots of those jobs pay better than tech jobs in most places you can also live more easily in cheap, nice places where a nice house can be had for less than 300K.

And their jobs are much, much harder to offshore.

It's interesting how there is this great push to get people to code, pushed by politicians who are almost all lawyers.

You don't see a push for more lawyers or doctors to drop costs. They don't import H1Bs. Try getting a medical or legal licence from another country.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using a credit card is not the same as going into debt to make your purchase. In the US, you can easily get 1% to 4% back from the credit card company by using your credit card, and so you actually save money by paying with your credit card. Whether or not you want to pay off the balance at the end of your credit card's billing cycle decides whether or not you are going into debt, but many, many people pay it off. It…

Its not like you're just pulling free money out of thin air by using a credit card. And it seems likely that the finance institutions behind the credit cards are offering them as a product that makes money and not as an act of goodwill. If everyone paid their credit cards off at the end of the month like they say they do, do you think credit cards would be advertised or pushed as hard as they are? The finance institu…

> If everyone paid their credit cards off at the end of the month like they say they do, do you think credit cards would be advertised or pushed as hard as they are?

Yes. CC companies make money on every transaction (google keyword: interchange fee).

I am also one of those people that pays off my balance every month. In fact, I use an Amex charge card that is designed to be paid off every month.

If not using/having credit cards is what works for your family, more power to you. But don't assume just because I use a CC for my purchases I'm in debt or foolish. In fact there's a whole subculture of making money off of credit card offers (see /r/churning).

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that you identify ultra efficient hyper capitalism as the problem, then point the finger at Wall Street traders betting on mortgage backed securities. They really have nothing to do with each other. To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers. It's programmers that allowed Uber to turn the inefficient and leisurely taxi industry into the Uber/Lyft rat ra…

There are strong and opposite forces at work. Hyper-capitalism in the form of efficiency gains made possible by software-driven matching algorithms in markets that, when productivity is higher, don't need/warrant these efficiency gains. Such as the formalized platforms for the micro sharing of cars (Uber), personal living spaces (Airbnb), and labor (TaskRabbit, Mechanical Turk, Fiverr, etc.). We currently do more eff…

> the Federal Reserve is an independent, non-government entity.

Its a self-funded government entity created by law.

> But it certainly feels like hyper-socialism because it undermines of the organizing principle of a democratic society - citizens should have both the right and the duty to elect officials to act on their behalf, and hold them accountable.

Like many government entities, it's officials are appointed by elected officials and powers and priorities are set by elected officials through law; this in no way subverts accountability.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That last part bothers me a lot. It seems a lot of people just don't want to move. Anecdotally I've moved nearly 6 times in the last 8 years. My parents have done the same. How do we build any kind of community with so little permanence? If we can't bond with our neighbors, we become these empty, atomized husks floating from one economic opportunity to another. Put another way, how can a village raise a child if the…

Isn't that what Facebook and the like are for? I'm being serious here. Since 2002 I have moved 5 times for work: Colorado, Texas, Guam, Maryland and now I'm in Virginia. My family is spread around Texas. I mostly keep up with the people I made friends with through the years and my family on FB, Twitter etc...phone and then rarely on email. The idea of a "local" community you have your whole life is antiquated - if it…

Exactly this. I was fortunate enough to stay in one place for K->12, but in the world I grew up in it was totally normal for young adults to move for college, then after college, then a few more times before settling down, then again for retirement. My parents did it, my grandparents did it (including as refugees when they were children), my aunts and uncles are all over.

Soon my parents will move for retirement, and my original "village" will hold nothing for me anymore. So it goes. I have a few friends from high school or college in basically every city, and we meet up when we happen to be in the same place. Family picks a place and all flies there for Christmas. It works out.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#237
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that what Facebook and the like are for? I'm being serious here. Since 2002 I have moved 5 times for work: Colorado, Texas, Guam, Maryland and now I'm in Virginia. My family is spread around Texas. I mostly keep up with the people I made friends with through the years and my family on FB, Twitter etc...phone and then rarely on email. The idea of a "local" community you have your whole life is antiquated - if it…

>Your village is a hypercorp that sells all your social interactions for profit This, to me, is a "Truman Show" level dystopia.

Funny, staying in the dead-end town you were born in with your grandparents' knitting circle supervising your dating life is an even greater dystopia to me.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#238
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that you identify ultra efficient hyper capitalism as the problem, then point the finger at Wall Street traders betting on mortgage backed securities. They really have nothing to do with each other. To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers. It's programmers that allowed Uber to turn the inefficient and leisurely taxi industry into the Uber/Lyft rat ra…

You speak as if customers do not also enjoy lower prices, faster delivery, lower fares, wider choices, etc. All this is also enabled by the very same platforms.

I didn't say otherwise. I like paying $10 for an Uber ride from someone scared I'll give them a bad rating, instead $15 from a surly, unaccountable cab driver. I'm just pointing out that if you think that's a problem, blame the people responsible for it.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#239
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We get paid ok but most of us barely have one home. If the average 'tech' worker is 28 and single, that's normal, not a sign of 'squeezing'.

I think you got it the other way around. I am 29, and single... But I am single BECAUSE I am nowhere near owning a home, in fact I don't own a home, or a car, or anything, to the point I stopped looking for a girlfriend because... why bother? It is not like I can even take her to a cinema.

Neither me nor my girlfriend own a car or a house (and hopefully we never will). Why would either of those be an issue? Plenty of people date and live together in apartments.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole credit card system in US is made to rip off "stupid" people, extremely so. Nobody writes about that, probably because everyone from US thinks it's normal, and nobody from the rest of the world knows about it. But that system is made to screw all the people who are not good at personal finances.

If you want to gamble on starting your own business it's amazing how much money you can easily borrow on credit cards.

Sounds on target. Anyone in the US can start a business based solely upon churning credit cards. For illustration purposes: Let's say you swipe at the start of the billing cycle, you now have about 60 days to repay. We will also assume that you have 10 acquaintances willing to swipe for you, each with a credit line of 80k, you suddenly got 800k credit to start. The more being spent, the higher the credit line offered by the banks. Add the incentive of credit card points/cash-back, and it's no wonder people are blinded by the risks of swiping. The end result? Small business owners will take heavy risks with an outsized amount of capital.
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