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America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

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Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#221

Post by [deleted] »

thuanao wrote: post #155
flyinglizard wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is trying to make war, but naturally China is looking at changing the order of things, at least regionally. To make that happen it needs USA to move out, and create its own coalition of countries around the area.

USA needs to move out and stop trying to start a war with China. Taiwan is China. Historically, legally, even according to the US's own policy. The KMT lost. This fantasy the US has of toppling or splitting up the PRC in a proxy war is extremely deranged. China has exercised incredible restraint over the actions of a belligerent warmonger US.

[deleted]

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#222

Post by roenxi »

yibg wrote: post #163
sampton wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has been methodically preparing for trade war and decoupling for the better part of the decade. US went in full throttle with zero preparation. This is not going to end well.

I wonder if this is a consequence of the political systems of China vs the US. China tends to think and plan longer term, where as the US seems much more transactional; what will win me the next election / midterm etc.

> China tends to think and plan longer term...

Pull the other one, we saw how they went in the 20th century. Large centralised governments have never managed to systemically outplan democracies.

The issue is US culture has been giving priority to anti-industrialists. As a result they aren't the leader of the industrial world. This has been planned for a long time and a bunch of people were celebrating it the entire way along. You try standing up and saying "we should prioritise industry!" anywhere in the west - it is a bruising experience as soon as it gets to the specific policies that are likely to be successful.

Huge chunks of what China did are illegal. Running a successful industrial economy seems to violate a host of western employment & environmental laws as well as many regulations. That isn't bad planning, that was an explicit rejection of the outcomes China achieved.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#223

Post by [deleted] »

ryandrake wrote: post #31
tartuffe78 wrote: post #2

Who will buy the phones when no one is paid to produce them? The cars? The food and the clothes? Wealth keeps concentrating upward, great leaps in efficiency and throughput, but I can't see how it's a sustainable model for continued consumption growth year after year.

> Who will buy the phones when no one is paid to produce them? The cars? The food and the clothes? Other wealthy people. I knew someone in the yacht-building business who would say "If you want a business that will last, sell to rich people--they're the ones who have money." We are very quickly moving towards a world where the economic activity (earning + spending + producing) of the median person is insignificant ne…

[deleted]

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#224

Post by llamaimperative »

sdenton4 wrote: post #161
llamaimperative wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay then you tell me: why do rents go up at all?

Because the landlords use price-fixing software. https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-s...

And before that software rent never went up?

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#225

Post by dgfitz »

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #91
dgfitz wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you ever read _Atlas Shrugged_? When I read comments like yours, my head goes there.

I have read Atlas Shrugged, but I'm not sure how to interpret your comment.

I was referring to this part:

> A relatively small number of wealthy people who matter to the economy, and a huge number scraping by day to day whose economic activity amounts to a rounding error in the grand scheme of things.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#226

Post by dluan »

jorvi wrote: post #207
dluan wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now, I try to consume content directly from the dragon's mouth with official news and reports, but it requires a bit of experience knowing how to read between the lines and having a strong bullshit parser. Similarly, most English language analysis from mainstream media is comically bad - CNN and American news outlets sent reporters to Beijing this week and bombarded attendees and delegates walking into the cong…

TP Huang has a pretty good substack[0]. Its a nice insider look. And its not fake stuff, its just looked at through the most red-yellow colored glasses there are. [0] https://tphuang.substack.com/

There’s a ton of people I follow on twitter too, @beijingdai, @wmhuo168, @rnaudbertrand. All have great rants.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#227

Post by Animats »

dluan wrote: post #174

American tech workers need to start paying attention to Chinese national policy, the National People's Congress is happening right now and it's how China sets long term goals and targets. "Made in China 2025" was a massive national strategic plan that was 10 years in the making, and was designed in 2015. It laid out all of the key sectors for "value added manufacturing", and by most accounts, they've been delivering…

Yes. China's five year plans are translated into English and are quite readable. Here's the 14th Five Year Plan, 2021-2025.[1] Wikipedia has a summary.[2]

This is China's business plan. The top level is expanded into more detailed plans at lower levels. For example, here's the plan for Fujian province.[3] Further down, here's the transition plan for IPv6.[4]

You can go back and read previous five-year plans. The success rate for the individual goals is reasonably high.

[1] https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/t0237_5th_Ple...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourteenth_five-year_plan

[3] https://ccci.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Policy%20Brief...

[4] https://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/23/c_1628629122784001.htm

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#228

Post by Noumenon72 »

dragonwriter wrote: post #64
ryandrake wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most participants in mature markets know approximately what percentage of the public's wallet they can grab. Obviously it's not 100% for any of them, but they all know what they can get away with. My guess is that if UBI added $1,000/mo to everyone's income, landlords would respond by raising rent by about $400-$500 or so, grocery stores would raise their prices by a percentage of that new income, and so on for all b…

> My guess is that if UBI added $1,000/mo to everyone's income Aside from whether the prediction is realistic under this assumption, UBI under any realistic financing scheme doesn't do that . It replaces (and potentially increases the net benefit of) means-tested welfare at the bottom end of the income distribution and spreads the clawback from a set of relatively sharp cliffs that occur between working poor and midd…

The way it does all these things is by adding $1,000/mo to everyone's income. That is what UBI is. Whether you choose to cut means-tested welfare or increase progressive taxation alongside it is up to you.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#229

Post by Sabinus »

alienthrowaway wrote: post #189
rtp4me wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and I think this is the core motivation behind the Trump messaging - bring it back to the US if possible. In fact, he wants to bring back commercial and maritime ship building back[1]. Pretty cool! Hopefully this will employ lots of people. [1] https://news.usni.org/2025/03/05/trumps-make-shipbuilding-gr...

At the same time, he's ripping up the CHIPS act. It's the duality of Trump: he wants to bring manufacturing back, except when he doesn't.

Words and desires are easy. Crafting, marketing and enacting policy to achieve the goals set by your words and desires is difficult. The world is complex and reacts in complex ways, but try to say that to a Trump voter and get called a disconnected elitist.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#230

Post by groby_b »

rtp4me wrote: post #130
sieabahlpark wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Damn, thanks for plainly stating why we need manufacturing back to the states.

Yes, and I think this is the core motivation behind the Trump messaging - bring it back to the US if possible. In fact, he wants to bring back commercial and maritime ship building back[1]. Pretty cool! Hopefully this will employ lots of people. [1] https://news.usni.org/2025/03/05/trumps-make-shipbuilding-gr...

"Back" as in undermining EV manufacturing? And non-fossil power generation?

"Back" as in massively increasing input costs?

"Back" as in alienating close allies who are a large part of our customer base?

"Back" as in repeatedly disrupting the supply chain by flip-flopping on tariffs without a clear plan?

"Back" as in undermining research across the board?

The current policy will not employ lots of people. It will have lots of people out of work fairly soon, if we continue on the current path. It will diminish our industrial base further, and reset our manufacturing skills to the 80s or earlier. But hey, at least toy manufacturers are hiring, that's a really important industry.

Setting aside any questions about intentions, the effects of the current policies are hugely deleterious.

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