Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us • Hacker News Board

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#221

Post by ebiester » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 5:51 PM UTC

Spooky23 wrote: post #141

apsec112 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 2016, real (inflation-adjusted) wages have risen quickly for people in the bottom quartile, while for upper-income workers they've been stagnant. Obviously, most people on HN are still better off than manual laborers, but the gap has narrowed substantially (a big reversal from 1995-2015) and that's a good thing. https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pr...

Wages are tough in this segment because many households are dependent on external non-income benefits. Particularly Medicaid and particularly for children. So if your $16/hr job pops by 30%, the net impact on the household is much lower in many cases. For teen workers, it’s beer money. For single moms, it’s a net loss as costs for daycare and healthcare have increased 50%. All of this stuff is relative. I’m a tech ex…

This seems weird to me. What is your savings rate versus theirs? I say this because on the surface, the same feels true for me, but on closer inspection I spend money like water in ways they had tightly controlled. And yet, I have a higher savings rate than they did.

(However, I don't have a pension.)

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#222

Post by CPLX » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 5:52 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #215

CPLX wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guys this isn’t that complicated. Basically every commercial interaction you have these days involves someone trying to cheat you, with basically no way to find recourse to human understanding or help. It’s every day, every time you interact with a corporation as a consumer. It fucking sucks profoundly and people are completely exhausted by it. Have you really not noticed?

But the questions isn't "how do you feel about the economy", it's "do you think the s&p 500 went up or down". Even if you think the stockmarket is fake and disconnected from what actually happens on main st, you should still be able to correctly answer whether it went up or not. Failing to do so shows that either you have no grasp on how the S&P 500 is actually doing, can't hold opposing concepts it your head (ie. th…

> you should still be able to correctly answer whether it went up or not

Why? Who fucking cares?

Some guy calls my phone during dinner with some survey about the economy. I answer every question with a variation on “fuck you and your economy” and then hang up.

I grew up in a family of social scientists and yet it still shocks me how much people actually believe the words “studies say” and “experts insist” when it comes to matters of human sentiment and opinion.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#223

Post by tuatoru » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 5:56 PM UTC

spicyusername wrote: post #6

I very much agree with the premise that economists unduly focus on a few metrics of dubious quality - labor force participation, personal consumption expenditures, market capitalization, wage growth, etc - and overfit them to construct a coherent narrative about the "strength" of the economy and what the experience of living in that economy must be like. There's a story right now being peddled by all the talking head…

Just listened to a podcast that pointed out that housing is expensive, education is expensive, childcare is expensive, cars are expensive, and money is expensive (interest rates are high). And out of pocket expenses for healthcare are going up and up.

Economists don't have a handle on the compromises and adaptations that people have been making over the last decade or more, e.g. moving to the cheaper place further out of town rather than where they want to live, or house-sharing rather than living as a couple.

It seems people are at the limit of the adaptations they can make and are pretty pissed off about it.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#224

Post by robotcapital » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 6:01 PM UTC

pixl97 wrote: post #123

robotcapital wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the problem is that that “intuition” changes based on how you the ask the question and who you ask it to. A good example of this is polling that shows Americans as a whole believe the country’s finances will be worse off a year from now at twice the rate as their own personal finances[0]. So I’d argue that even anecdotes and intuition need to be taken with grain of salt, particularly given that it’s an electi…

>polarized electorate And I would add with a polarized media whos parent companies fortunes depend on which people get elected. The amount of corporate financed propaganda out there is out of control.

We’re getting off on a tangent here about here about the mechanism behind that polarization, but it reflects the broader point I was trying to make with my comment. That is to be skeptical of simplistic answer, like “economic termites” or “corporate propaganda”, to complex topics like the economy or polarization. It might imply an agenda other than seeking the truth.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#225

Post by ryandrake » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 6:01 PM UTC

fallingknife wrote: post #210

ryandrake wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When I see videos on the internet all the time of criminals just walking into stores and grabbing whatever they want while the security guard looks on and does nothing because the police will side with the criminal if he touches them, it is perfectly valid to assume that crime is worse. How many videos have you seen on the Internet of stores just calmly going about business with no shoplifting going on? The number…

Why have I only started seeing these outliers in the last few years? Also, the worst part of the videos isn't that they happen, but that they are allowed to happen. If the criminals weren't calmly going about their business without even wearing a mask and instead running from the security guard it wouldn't be so frustrating. If the news stories had a mugshot of the police arresting them quickly since their face is al…

Could there be other reasons why these videos are being uploaded more, and why you are being served them more over the last few years? Access to videography has been growing constantly since smartphones were introduced. There are now multiple platforms for uploading these videos, and doing so is easier than ever. These platforms algorithmically optimize for engagement and do this by promoting ragebait and controversy. And there are now entire, active communities dedicated to sharing/spreading/promoting these (r/PublicFreakout has almost 5M members). What you happen to be seeing may not reflect any sort of trend, either up or down.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#226

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 6:01 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #117

citizenpaul wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is basically a variation on tragedy of the commons. The solution is right there in front of everyone and "simply" requires everyone to do it coordinately. I've told this solution to numerous people, just log onto your bank website and click "dispute" and thats it you are done. Nope, they either don't believe me or are afraid of doing it because "banks". They continue to just allow crappy businesses to effectivel…

>I've told this solution to numerous people, just log onto your bank website and click "dispute" and thats it you are done This depends heavily on your bank. I can see this working if you're using a neobank, but there's plenty of legacy banks that require you to call in, wait on hold, etc.

[deleted]

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#227

Post by bwanab » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 6:03 PM UTC

spicyusername wrote: post #6

I very much agree with the premise that economists unduly focus on a few metrics of dubious quality - labor force participation, personal consumption expenditures, market capitalization, wage growth, etc - and overfit them to construct a coherent narrative about the "strength" of the economy and what the experience of living in that economy must be like. There's a story right now being peddled by all the talking head…

The personal experience of the economy isn't quite as you make it. In polls, people do complain about the national economy being in terrible shape, but by a fairly good margin report that their own finances are in good shape. It's hard to weave a coherent narrative from those contradictory data.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#228

Post by rightbyte » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 6:11 PM UTC

fallingknife wrote: post #183

uoaei wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, in the case of crime there are so many more vicarious anecdotes. If people were only allowed to discuss crimes that they were personally victim to, we would not be under the impression that crime is worse than ever.

When I have to spend 10 minutes finding a store employee to unlock a case for me to buy underwear and socks at Target when I didn't have to five years ago, I conclude that crime has gotten worse. When I see videos on the internet all the time of criminals just walking into stores and grabbing whatever they want while the security guard looks on and does nothing because the police will side with the criminal if he tou…

Where do you live? It sounds quite bad. Has SF got that bad? I haven't been there since I worked there in 2015, but I read the authorites gave up on some crime?

I noticed neither any crime or homeless at that time. But people now seem swear it has gotten to be a big problem.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#229

Post by gruez » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 6:14 PM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #222

gruez wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the questions isn't "how do you feel about the economy", it's "do you think the s&p 500 went up or down". Even if you think the stockmarket is fake and disconnected from what actually happens on main st, you should still be able to correctly answer whether it went up or not. Failing to do so shows that either you have no grasp on how the S&P 500 is actually doing, can't hold opposing concepts it your head (ie. th…

> you should still be able to correctly answer whether it went up or not Why? Who fucking cares? Some guy calls my phone during dinner with some survey about the economy. I answer every question with a variation on “fuck you and your economy” and then hang up. I grew up in a family of social scientists and yet it still shocks me how much people actually believe the words “studies say” and “experts insist” when it com…

>I grew up in a family of social scientists and yet it still shocks me how much people actually believe the words “studies say” and “experts insist” when it comes to matters of human sentiment and opinion.

But the question we're asking isn't "how people feel about the economy", it's "how the economy is actually doing". I don't think anyone here is seriously arguing that the public is wrong about their own "sentiment and opinion". They're going to be right almost by definition. What is actually being disputed is whether public's "sentiment and opinion" actually reflects reality. To that question I don't see why we should give unlimited credence to "human sentiment and opinion".

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#230

Post by ramblenode » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 6:14 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #144

spicyusername wrote: post #6

I very much agree with the premise that economists unduly focus on a few metrics of dubious quality - labor force participation, personal consumption expenditures, market capitalization, wage growth, etc - and overfit them to construct a coherent narrative about the "strength" of the economy and what the experience of living in that economy must be like. There's a story right now being peddled by all the talking head…

>I think this goes the other way around. Our method for understanding the economy is flawed and is not properly capturing what all consumers know intuitively, things kind of suck, even when you have a job and even when you're still buying things. It seems kind of lazy to observe that anecdotes contradict statistics, and then conclude that it's the statistics are wrong without providing any empirical evidence to the c…

> It seems kind of lazy to observe that anecdotes contradict statistics, and then conclude that it's the statistics are wrong without providing any empirical evidence to the contrary.

Anecdotes are empirical evidence. Statistics are just collections of anecdotes obtained through systematized processes. As such, statistics are only as good as the process. 1 good observation can be better than 100 bad observations.