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President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

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Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#221

Post by _ph_ »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #121
danielheath wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nukes are a possibility, but MAD has stopped us all using them for many years so far. As far as conventional arms go: Russia has quite a few planes, tanks, and artillery; however, so long as the USA wills it, the Ukraine will have more anti-air missiles, more anti-tank munitions, and more long-range rockets. In any long-range fight, being able to locate your enemy is key; the pentagons ability to identify the locatio…

Does MAD really protect Ukraine? Edit: suppose the old man has properly lost it. If Putin drops a tactical nuke on a Ukranian military position, will Nato really respond in kind? Seems like damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

I think NATO would respond, but non-nuclear. There is no need to answer tactical nuclear weapons with a nuclear strike. There are tons of NATO air forces available to strike against Russian troops in Ukrainian territory. They would just obliterate any Russian troops there.

It was a small but interesting news item, that a few days before the invasion, some of the US stealth bombers were moved to Rammstein air force base. So at any time there would be the capability of a forceful answer. But this also shows how ridiculous the claims were, that the NATO would seek to attack Russia, as that is the thing the NATO has tried hard to avoid so far.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#222

Post by eadmund »

camjw wrote: post #65
_ph_ wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ukraine can do it, if it gets supplied with the weapons to do it. Even with the weapons they got so far, they managed to hurt the Russian military a lot - hence the mobilization. They got some very powerful weapons, but still limited in number and choice. Just delivering long-range ammunition for HIMARS in large numbers might be enough to break any Russian offensive as all supply and all fixed positions were easy…

Calling Ukraine "The Ukraine" is a Russian tactic to make Ukraine seem less like a country and more like a region. Quoting from wikipedia: > However, since Ukraine's declaration of independence in 1991, [calling Ukraine "The Ukraine"] has become politicised and is now rarer, and style guides advise against its use. US ambassador William Taylor said that using "the Ukraine" implies disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty.…

Nonsense! That’s just the name of the country in English.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#223

Post by lolc »

sofixa wrote: post #186
lolc wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they could conquer Ukraine and effectively quell unrest, the Federation could be said to have come out stronger. That is very unlikely though, with the Ukrainian army getting effective support. If they manage to hold the land bridge to Krim and negotiate a cease-fire, it can be argued that they had limited success in their objectives. But at a huge economic and humanitarian cost. And in a nuclear war, nobody wins.…

> If they could conquer Ukraine and effectively quell unrest, the Federation could be said to have come out stronger Even that is doubtful. They have lost tens of thousands of their best troops, tons of expensive equipment, and destroyed their economy short (sanctions and blackmail) and long term (nobody would trust them again as a reliable supplier, so their exports of raw materials economy will suffer).

International trade keeps going. Just because some economies have curbed trading with Russia does not mean they've run out of trading partners. It is doubtful the sanctions would remain in place for long after a capitulation of Ukraine.

Losing troops and military equipment is insignificant in the long term. Both have to be replaced regularly anyway. That is no loss unless one counts the pollution and the humanitarian cost. And we know the Russian government doesn't consider those costs.

From my point of view, if they could pull it off, the Russian Federation would be stronger having annexed Ukraine. Not that I want to see that scenario, or think it likely.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#225

Post by azangru »

trhway wrote: post #215
azangru wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If in any given phrase one means Ukraine as a region, like Caucasus, then it is "на", if one means Ukraine as country then it is "в". There is no such semantic distinction between these two prepositions. You speak of a human language as if it were a programming language disregarding its history (while even for programming languages, history is important, which is why javascript or php are in the state they are curr…

Well, i'm a native Russian speaker (left the country at the age of 28). I can only hope that you're too.

> Well, i'm a native Russian speaker

Were you bothered by the preposition "на"? Did you feel, back in secondary school, that saying "на Украине" somehow made it into something less than a country? Can you remember the time when it started bothering you?

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#226

Post by yodsanklai »

the_gipsy wrote: post #130
Neil44 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I partly understand where they're coming from with the 'evil west' moving right into their back yard. The US got pretty upset when the shoe was on the other foot in the Cuban Missile Crisis. But this is all way to out of hand now, it should have been sorted diplomatically, there's no obvious route to de-escalation that anyone finds acceptable.

Macron tried, but other european leaders have their heads stuck in their arse (cater only to their own bubble). USA is happy to sell arms and undermine european and russian economies.

> Macron tried

Not sure what he tried exactly. He talked to Putin, but did he bring anything to the table?

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#228

Post by The_Colonel »

zppln wrote: post #144
diimdeep wrote: post #114

It is usually recommended here to read information from sources, here: Address by the President of the Russian Federation (English transcript) [1] (video in Russian, no subs)[2] [1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390 [2] http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

Excerpts clarifying what is meant by "partial mobilization": As I have said, we are talking about partial mobilisation. In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up. Additionally, the Executive Order on partial mobilisation also stipulates additional measures for the fulfilme…

"partial" is part of the speech, but not of the decree which does not specify who can be mobilized: https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1572486143198756868

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#229

Post by diimdeep »

zppln wrote: post #144
diimdeep wrote: post #114

It is usually recommended here to read information from sources, here: Address by the President of the Russian Federation (English transcript) [1] (video in Russian, no subs)[2] [1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390 [2] http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

Excerpts clarifying what is meant by "partial mobilization": As I have said, we are talking about partial mobilisation. In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up. Additionally, the Executive Order on partial mobilisation also stipulates additional measures for the fulfilme…

Also, official Telegram channel of Ministry of Defence posted[1][3] this transcript from Interview of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, General of the Army S. K. Shoigu[2][4]

And, of course, I want to precede the questions that can appear in this regard: there is nothing to do with mobilising or conscripting students that currently study in higher educational institutions. All of them attend classes and nobody is going to conscript or to mobilise them.

The same is about those who are currently in draft service. They are neither involved in it. They are not to be mobilised or sent to be involved in the special military operation. Our conscripts continue serving at the territory of the Russian Federation as they did before.

That is because we have got an enormous mobilisation resource, the resource of those who have served. There are about 25 million of those who have combat experience and military profession.

Therefore you can understand that this mobilisation is partial: one per cent or a bit more from the entire mobilisation resource.

[1] https://t.me/mod_russia/20029 [2] https://telegra.ph/Intervyu-Ministra-oborony-Rossijskoj-Fede... [3] https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4198 [4] https://telegra.ph/Interview-of-the-Minister-of-Defence-of-t...

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#230

Post by sharikous »

_0w8t wrote: post #188
spywaregorilla wrote: post #154

A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…

I mostly agree with you, but Kharkiv collapse was not that big. While Russia abandoned a lot of equipment there, they managed to withdraw most of it and the vast majority of troops. It looks like after the initial Ukrainian breakthrough Russian generals managed to convince Putin to abandon most of Kharkiv and focus on Donbas instead. At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources repo…

> Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas

There are a lot of other lines, e.g. near Donetsk. And with the time it is taking for the Russians to advance there is plenty of time for the Ukrainians to set up other lines.

> Kharkiv collapse was not that big

It removed the last hope the Russian had to take the fortifications you mention from behind, descending from the north.

Now the Russians are just throwing everything they have at fortifications specifically built to defend against this kind of attack. No wonder they advance so slowly.

What worries me is that from an historical perspective it is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War that preluded WW II. Such a direct involvement of foreign superpowers was not seen even in the Syrian Civil War.

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