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Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

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Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#221

Post by AnIdiotOnTheNet »

CSMastermind wrote: post #122
thr0wawayf00 wrote: post #29

One of the biggest problems is that most current gun violence doesn't necessarily represent any sort of targeted pattern (i.e. shooting up a political convention or party headquarters). It's malls and schools because that's such an easy way to create shock and awe. If we do wind up in some sort of civil conflict, I imagine it will look a lot like Ireland from the 60's to the 90's, which was by no means a good time.[0…

Yeah it's really hard to imagine a full blown civil war just because of what the battlelines would be in a right-left split in the country. I've heard people jokingly say, "One side collects guns and the other collects mental disorders." That's obviously an unfair shot but there's some truth to it. Left leaning areas tend to be centered around city centers where right leaning areas tend to be rural and control things…

> I've heard people jokingly say, "One side collects guns and the other collects mental disorders."

> That's obviously an unfair shot but there's some truth to it.

No truth to it at all really. I'm pretty much a full-on socialist and I own firearms. In fact, I'm not sure I know anyone who doesn't own a firearm.

There are more firearms in the US than there are people, so what kind of fool honestly believes they are all in the hands of less than one half of the population?

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#222

Post by snapetom »

chasd00 wrote: post #133
hinkley wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hasn't 60% of the population of Texas expected a civil war soon for the last 100 years? And what are those rebel flags all about? It's posturing. Just like all of those surveys that say 50% of tech workers anticipate quitting this year. Nearly all the places that talk about secession are the same states that generate less federal tax revenue than they spend. Which is both why it would be a terrible idea, and why peop…

the whole secession thing blows me away. I live in Texas and had a couple friends who were on that bandwagon. I asked them had they thought about going toe to toe with the US Marines while bombers are over Austin and drones over everywhere else. All i got back was silence. The union will be preserved at any cost, there's precedent for that. No state will secede without defeating the US military first.

Except the South, presumably Texas sympathizers, are way over represented in the military. The next largest region of over-representation are your flyover states, which political lean red.

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/costs/soc...

You assumption that Texas would have to go toe to toe with the US Marines is a big assumption when many Marines are from Texas or would be politically sympathetic. If it came to it, the US Military would likely face a large breakdown and crisis within itself.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#223

Post by FuzzyError »

So, just from my own anecdotal experience from a liberal enclave in a mid size southern US city, I've noticed a sharp uptick in people arming themselves over the past few years. Specific examples given why are usually Jan 6 and Charlottesville and the fear of only the right being armed if things ever erupted into some kind of local conflict. Neighbors that I would have assumed to be very anti-gun based on their other political beliefs ended up owning ARs and a set of body armor plates.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#224

Post by giardini »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #126
maerF0x0 wrote: post #32

more than half of americans are unfit for a bar fight let alone a war. I hate to say it but these kinds of surveys are pretty weak. I recall a friend who's a history buff telling me something along the lines of non-professional soldiers often refuse to shoot their firearms, or intentionally miss, because people often don't truly want to kill. A quick google suggests some credibility to this claim[1]. I always try to…

A civil war isn't always a war by civilians. Consider a scenario where the government is increasingly turned into a mexican standoff between completely entrenched branches of government. Supreme court is completely doing its own thing, the president starts abusing emergency powers to circumvent a ceaselessly filibustering congress and senate. Nothing gets done, and the country starts suffering from neglect and misman…

A question, a statement and a proposal:

- is your proposed "military coup" a "civil war"?

- This entire discussion is fruitless b/c no two of us have the same definition (or even a clear conception) of the term "civil war". And we have for reference only past civil wars (especially the USA's war between the states).

- We could speculate loosely using and poor surveys unleashed on the great unwashed masses (and us) by surveyors interested less in their agenda than in raw screen-clicks. Instead why not pass by this article, leaving it to dry up and blow away in the dessicating winds of e-space?

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#225

Post by phtrivier »

Waitbutwhy has a great series about some possible explanation for the division of USA (and, probably, the version of the same situation that exists in other "flawed" western democraties.)

After many insightful chapters laying out the depressing state of the situation, Tim Urban was a on the brink of publishing the articles where he was going to suggest ways things could, maybe, be improved

And I was foolish enough to actually _expect_ some great idea, some "out of the box" light bulb, some glimmer of hope.

Instead, Tim, apparently, decided to never publish the end of the series, and instead package the first few chapters as a bone fide book. Which is all good for him, I suppose Patreon and speaking gigs can only go so far when trying to make rent.

It's all on me for having unrealistic hope in the self professed king of procrastinators.

But maybe we should be jerks and blame the coming Second Civil War on him (for not having blogged the solution sooner ?)

Still, Tim, if you're wasting your time on HN, please publish _something_.

(Also, is there a support group somewhere for people waiting for Tim Urban to publish something ? Asking for a friend.)

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#226

Post by dukeofdoom »

hinkley wrote: post #165
jokethrowaway wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very interesting! Generally, in the country in the Europe I've lived in, the people who want to secede are those who don't want to see their taxes go to the country's lazy and scammy region (almost all countries have one).

That's the most fucked up thing here. The regions with the highest concentration of people upset about paying taxes overlaps almost exactly with the places that get the most excess benefit of taxes, typically in the range of 1.1:1 (which means many other places are seeing about 15% less benefit per capita). A lot of that money goes to roads and infrastructure, so it's a little more dramatic than it sounds, but import…

There's a huge divide between the way cities vote and rural communities. If farmers do receive more tax breaks, it's to support a system that makes them unprofitable, so that they don't quit. Give you an example, getting tax breaks to grow corn for ethanol. Having more ethanol in their gasoline, is not something any farmer wants, its more of a want of politicians that live in cities.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#227

Post by jasonladuke0311 »

BurningFrog wrote: post #41
jonnycomputer wrote: post #7

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

And who would be fighting? Where would they fight? Twitter doesn't count!

The average "combatant" on one side couldn't lift a rifle, and the other side would be more likely to die from heart disease than from enemy fire.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#229

Post by nomel »

notch656a wrote: post #131
nomel wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reference please?

Can you lay out the conditions under which you'll accept references? I've had a lot of issues before where I provide this sort of evidence and the counterparty relentlessly and tediously explains why every single source is either wrong or doesn't meet their arbitrary standards, so I want to be sure this won't be turned into one of those situations.

I'm genuinely interested in how that perspective came to be since it is, to my world view, a shocking and hard to believe claim. But, my surprise isn't worth anything. I'm unable to find search term that gives something relevant, so anything would help.

But, I think it's a bit unfair to make, what appears to be, a very bold assertion, without explaining it or allowing criticism. I have no interest (or qualification) to criticize your sources, but I would hope that someone would criticize mine.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#230

Post by [deleted] »

the_optimist wrote: post #205
pmyteh wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These panel surveys are reasonably good. The better pollsters (like Ipsos MORI) spend a decent amount of effort recruiting a broad sample of people for their panels, and results are statistically adjusted for non-response bias etc. That said, the usual problem with political polling (that you can only poll people willing to answer pollsters' questions) applies extra here, as all respondents have agreed to be part of…

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