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Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

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Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#201

Post by mywittyname »

CSMastermind wrote: post #122
thr0wawayf00 wrote: post #29

One of the biggest problems is that most current gun violence doesn't necessarily represent any sort of targeted pattern (i.e. shooting up a political convention or party headquarters). It's malls and schools because that's such an easy way to create shock and awe. If we do wind up in some sort of civil conflict, I imagine it will look a lot like Ireland from the 60's to the 90's, which was by no means a good time.[0…

Yeah it's really hard to imagine a full blown civil war just because of what the battlelines would be in a right-left split in the country. I've heard people jokingly say, "One side collects guns and the other collects mental disorders." That's obviously an unfair shot but there's some truth to it. Left leaning areas tend to be centered around city centers where right leaning areas tend to be rural and control things…

The money is in the cities/suburbs. Any attempts to choke them off will inevitably hit everyone hard. At least those in cities will be close to aid delivery. Modern rural life is completely non-viable without copious amounts of gasoline.

Plus, there's a lot that happens between farm to table in modern agriculture.

COVID showed us just how sensitive our lifestyle is to disruptions.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#202

Post by thr0wawayf00 »

CSMastermind wrote: post #122
thr0wawayf00 wrote: post #29

One of the biggest problems is that most current gun violence doesn't necessarily represent any sort of targeted pattern (i.e. shooting up a political convention or party headquarters). It's malls and schools because that's such an easy way to create shock and awe. If we do wind up in some sort of civil conflict, I imagine it will look a lot like Ireland from the 60's to the 90's, which was by no means a good time.[0…

Yeah it's really hard to imagine a full blown civil war just because of what the battlelines would be in a right-left split in the country. I've heard people jokingly say, "One side collects guns and the other collects mental disorders." That's obviously an unfair shot but there's some truth to it. Left leaning areas tend to be centered around city centers where right leaning areas tend to be rural and control things…

> In a true right vs left civil war, at least as the politics line up right now, the right faction would win by simply isolating and choking off the cities.

I don't think it makes sense to draw up a hypothetical war this way based on how interconnected and interdependent the economy is.

Firstly, a tremendous amount of American food is imported and threatening the food supply would draw the ire of Federal forces, which would be counter-productive to a militarized movement. Secondly, raw food ingredients tend to travel very far distances in order to be processed for consumption. If supply chains were disrupted this way, you'd have a lot of raw food going to waste that can't be consumed on its own (most commercially produced corn in the US cannot be eaten on its own because it's designed to be converted into corn syrup). Third, global shipping hubs and large airports tend to be in urban areas, not rural. Rural shipping centers tend to be secondary or tertiary.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#203

Post by teg4n_ »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #95

Maybe mail in voting wasn't such a great idea, when so many people don't trust the results. In person voting, paper ballot, simplest and most transparent.

Weird add to grind. States have had mail in voting for years and it has not been a problem.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#204

Post by conradev »

hinkley wrote: post #173
antonymy wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While the USA was once a true federation of sovereign states that really hasn't been the case since at least the Civil War, over 150 years ago. States depend heavily on the federal government for assistance, standardization, and regulation, and even depend on their neighbors for logistical support in various industries as well as energy and water. For all its touted net-contribution to the federal budget California w…

I haven't heard much talk of Californians dreaming of becoming independent, but maybe I'm traveling in the wrong circles. What I have heard is people talking smack about kicking California out, and taking 10% of the US GDP with it. Which would be dumb for the rest of us.

There is this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_(proposed_Pacific_...

but they want to secede from existing states, not from the union

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#205

Post by the_optimist »

pmyteh wrote: post #150
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v... > Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for. Given how weird some of the interne…

These panel surveys are reasonably good. The better pollsters (like Ipsos MORI) spend a decent amount of effort recruiting a broad sample of people for their panels, and results are statistically adjusted for non-response bias etc. That said, the usual problem with political polling (that you can only poll people willing to answer pollsters' questions) applies extra here, as all respondents have agreed to be part of…

No post body was provided.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#206

Post by AnimalMuppet »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #126
maerF0x0 wrote: post #32

more than half of americans are unfit for a bar fight let alone a war. I hate to say it but these kinds of surveys are pretty weak. I recall a friend who's a history buff telling me something along the lines of non-professional soldiers often refuse to shoot their firearms, or intentionally miss, because people often don't truly want to kill. A quick google suggests some credibility to this claim[1]. I always try to…

A civil war isn't always a war by civilians. Consider a scenario where the government is increasingly turned into a mexican standoff between completely entrenched branches of government. Supreme court is completely doing its own thing, the president starts abusing emergency powers to circumvent a ceaselessly filibustering congress and senate. Nothing gets done, and the country starts suffering from neglect and misman…

I find the parallels to Caesar in a different way. Caesar took his army into Rome because he had been ordered to return to Rome without his army, at which point his political enemies would have destroyed him.

Trump is talking about running in 2024 because it's the only way he can escape being destroyed by January 6 and various related legal problems.

Now, Trump isn't a general of an army. Yes, he was commander in chief, but the army would (I presume) not have followed him to the extent of obeying illegal orders. But if Trump wins and gets increasingly legally cornered, he's going to try to find a way out, no matter what laws it breaks, and some of those ways are going to tear the country apart.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#207

Post by jonnycomputer »

wishfish wrote: post #172
jonnycomputer wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The civil war happened because the abolition of slavery threatened the wealth and power of Southern elites. It was about wealth. I just don't see a similar situation right now.

The current situation with abortion will pose a threat similar to the slavery divide. There's a clear division of states which allow it and those with bans. Some of the states with bans are threatening prosecution of women who cross state lines for the procedure. There's a similar situation coming up regarding gay and trans rights. Some states will continue having equal rights. Other states may not. This situation wi…

But how does this effect the wealth and power of elites? That's the point. A civil war has to be organized from the top, and elites, who always look out for their own self-interest first, aren't going to organize an expensive, disruptive war to prevent 10yo rape victims from getting an abortion.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#208

Post by MaxfordAndSons »

johnny35 wrote: post #58
maerF0x0 wrote: post #32

more than half of americans are unfit for a bar fight let alone a war. I hate to say it but these kinds of surveys are pretty weak. I recall a friend who's a history buff telling me something along the lines of non-professional soldiers often refuse to shoot their firearms, or intentionally miss, because people often don't truly want to kill. A quick google suggests some credibility to this claim[1]. I always try to…

On Killing by Dave Grossman explores the research backing up your friend's assertion in depth. I highly recommend that book to anyone whose interest is piqued by your comment.

Dave Grossman is the guy who goes around giving police departments seminars on the warrior mindset, including telling them that they'll have the best sex of their life immediately after they kill someone in the line of duty.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#210

Post by hinkley »

malingo wrote: post #159
hinkley wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hasn't 60% of the population of Texas expected a civil war soon for the last 100 years? And what are those rebel flags all about? It's posturing. Just like all of those surveys that say 50% of tech workers anticipate quitting this year. Nearly all the places that talk about secession are the same states that generate less federal tax revenue than they spend. Which is both why it would be a terrible idea, and why peop…

Reliance on the federal government, by state: https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal...

It's funny, I can find ten different charts of this. On some of them, Texas, Florida, and/or North Carolina are 'less dependent' and on others they are just as dependent as most of the rest. A few disagree about Tennessee, Missouri, and Georgia. But for the most part, they agree on just about every other state.
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