Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4 • Hacker News Board

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#221

Post by runarberg » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:06 AM UTC

ingenieros wrote: post #203

mellavora wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And in the short and medium turn, Europe cannot get to renewables. Re-doing an continent's energy grid takes time. Also, remember that many water heaters and house heating systems run on gas. Switching these to electric will also take time.

Exactly, not to mention that Europe only has about 6 weeks worth of gas reserves according to German analysts. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...

There have been energy crisis in the past and most people survived it, albeit with major inconveniences. I would say that is a small price to pay for peaceful resolution.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#222

Post by hef19898 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:07 AM UTC

tifadg1 wrote: post #201

thepra wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From Putins interview he does explicitly say that he wouldn't be in this position if the NATO didn't push for Ukraine, as simple as that.

Oh yes and he isn't known for lying.

He sure is. Russia is pretty consistent with its view on NATO expansion to the East so, ever since the 90s.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#223

Post by ed_balls » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:07 AM UTC

nomercy400 wrote: post #131

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin.

I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#224

Post by zaarn » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:08 AM UTC

nomercy400 wrote: post #131

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

China will just press Russia into servitude by demanding lower prices (who else they gonna sell to). It's still going to ruin Russia and maybe China then remembers some of the ethnical-chinese regions of Russia that Putin just set a convenient precedent for.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#225

Post by hnbad » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:08 AM UTC

raverbashing wrote: post #16

ajmurmann wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Despite history since the end of the cold war (which makes some of Russia's positions somewhat understandable, and the fact that NATO didn't do anything different in Iraq and Afghanistan) Can you expand on this? I'm entirely unable to understand why Russia after the cold war didn't become like any other European country and aimed to join the EU etc.

Because Russia has a complicated history. Democracy is a lot of work

Considering the EU currently includes at least one literal dictatorship and NATO includes Turkey, I think pretending this has anything to do with morals and shared values is a bit dishonest.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#226

Post by hef19898 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:08 AM UTC

awb wrote: post #191

teatree wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)

Yes and no. Yes, countries prefer weak neighbors. A powerful alliance on your border is a potential threat (or deterrent to expansion). No in the sense that the US only has 90k troops in NATO countries, or about 10% of Russia’s standing military. So it’s not like troops are messing at their border or enough to threaten an invasion. It’s very much a deterrent. Also no in that the US, Russia and China are nuclear power…

Well, the Cuban Missile Crisis might have word regarding enemy troops close to the US mainland.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#227

Post by fbn79 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:09 AM UTC

Will be very disastrous for world economy, but in this case the NATO countries MUST implement a strong Cuba like Embargo vs Russia and Belorussian. “We will stand on principle or we will not stand at all.” M.T.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#228

Post by cm2187 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:09 AM UTC

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

Perhaps not invaded, but maintained a puppet gvt in ukraine, poisoning political opponents, etc.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#229

Post by jononor » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:09 AM UTC

wiz21c wrote: post #118

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

Here is one view that I think is quite on point. https://mobile.twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/149604763196923...

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#230

Post by cleancoder0 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:10 AM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

This is unfortunately highly unlikely. A lot of EU politics depends on the pockets of rich Russian oil firms.

Just look at Austria, very rich but obviously Russian run EU country. (latest prime minister got fired by Russians even though Russia cyberarmy helped him win the elections. They decided he was no longer as compliant, so they leaked data many years after elections, Russian scandals several years before that etc.). Raiffeisen bank in Austria, basically launders money for Russians over the last several decades, with no consequences to the chief officers.

Hungary is another good example.

Another Austrian neighbor, Croatia, not rich, and less influenced by Russians, had one of the biggest scandals ever when the biggest privately owned company in the Balkans (owned by a Croatian), that employs a massive amounts of Croatians, went bankrupt and could have been acquired by creditors (Sberbank and VTB Bank). I guess there was not enough Russian influence in politics and Croatian government put a new law immediately, so that this kind of takeover does not happen (Croatia nationalized the company).

Russia has quite a large reach into EU.