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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#221

Post by pjc50 »

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife.

Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs

They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision that will become unliveable within months while also looking completely horrendous in its rural setting.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#222

Post by fy20 »

archsurface wrote: post #86
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Yep, but the talk from above is about "transitory inflation". Maybe it is, but I agree sellers will drag out inflated prices as long as possible. I'm curious about US price of land. I looked into building a place in the UK, and the price of land alone was a blocker.

The UK has a high population density, and a lot of land is still owned by old nobility who don't really care to sell it.

In the rest of Europe prices are much lower, I'm currently building a house in Northern Europe on the outskirts of the capital (within city limits) and we paid €30/m2 for the land in 2019.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#223

Post by bildung »

ghshephard wrote: post #22
bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

100% of the analysts that I read, and, if I'm not mistaken, close to 100% of the mill owners recognized that this was a temporary blip, and that lumber would fall back into the $500sh range (There is a natural floor - that's the price at which BC mills no longer make money and start shutting down/curtailing capacity.) None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the…

> None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the increased prices.

I'm a bit doubtful about this because I know that even German mills started to produce lumber with US dimensions, causing shortages for metric lumber locally.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#224

Post by MarcelOlsz »

mettamage wrote: post #212
mrcode007 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada... This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. The price increase was a result of a usual 90 day delivery for new contracted lumber and nobody anticipati…

> This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. If you're up for it could you teach me a bit about this? I'm new to commodities (lumber, gold, etc.). My email is in my profile.

Mind looping me in as well if you get a response? Profile is also in my bio.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#225

Post by lbriner »

RNCTX wrote: post #139
octopoc wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…

> check on it every day you got it. > Is there a better way? no.

It is hard since even experienced and capable builders might still take you for a ride. In the UK, plumbers are notorious for not turning up to jobs and not even calling etc. Those that know what they are doing are also prone to inflate a quote to someone they think can afford it.

The other problem in the UK is there is no formal registry for a "builder" as opposed to plumbers, electricians and even window fitters that have to be registered.

There is definitely a need for good people skills (passive aggressive doesn't work on the building site) and being clear up-front. You also need to try and avoid over-reliance on one person/company, you don't want everything stopping because the electrician cancelled on you.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#226

Post by pjc50 »

tayo42 wrote: post #101
smabie wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think for a lot of (white collar) people, the last year and a half of covid has been the most lucrative time of their entire lives. Crazy returns across all asset classes.

my measly half million dollar worth of stocks "only" grew 30%. There's a significant amount of people do that much better than i did? what am i missing?

Congratulations, you're in the top 1%.

There aren't that many people above you, but 1% of the US population is still millions, and they have an outsized influence and visibility.

Property also suffers from "pigeonhole" effects; a few foreign millionaires parking their money in empty properties at the top end causes everyone to move along one.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#227

Post by lbriner »

stadium wrote: post #68
edrxty wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming you are very mechanically inclined but not particularly well versed to traditional construction, what does one do to learn more about this process?

I found this book to be extremely insightful on the process and pitfalls. Communication in writing and being specific about grading specs for various finishes was one of my big takeaways. There's a lot more to it though. Having an architect act as an independent PM may be a good idea too if you forgoe a GC. That said, I didn't follow through yet and haven't built anything myself. Even if you do use a GC it's still a…

Having an architect can be helpful but it can also be significantly more expensive and if there is a problem, then you are likely to be pulled into the argument anyway.

Definitely communication, good diagrams, developing a good rappour with the contractor and not being overly tight or strict with them otherwise you can build resentment. For example, don't withhold all of their expected money because of a single piece of dodgy drywall, give them most or all of the money and make sure they make-good first thing next week.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#228

Post by joeberon »

pjc50 wrote: post #221
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

It's excellent pain-viewing

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#229

Post by d0gsg0w00f »

otikik wrote: post #211
throwaway984393 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spend 3 months watching YouTube, you'll probably learn more tips than many contractors know. Then 3 months practicing small mock-ups - building forms, frames, stairs, windows, roofs, installing insulation, vapor barriers, sheeting, drywall. A fancy shed isn't a bad place to start. Plan on hiring a plumber, electrician, and HVAC specialist. Probably another 3-6 months to figure out all the paperwork.

The channel "Essential Craftsman" is finishing building a spec house. It's an American-style house, with timber framing. The host, Scott Wadsworth, knows a lot about contracting, and gives a lot of details and advice. The playlist currently has 126 videos. It's here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGCC-_Cuhhw&list=PLRZePj70B4... My impression after watching most of it: It might be "easy" to build your own house once…

As a former builder and current handyman (now cloud architect) I can wholeheartedly recommend this channel. That guy knows his stuff. My only warning is that he's a perfectionist and purest. If you do things his way without any experience it will take you 10x as long.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#230

Post by whiskyant »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134
tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

Inflation/printed money + stock market prices going through the roof.

If you don't have significant capital in investments, you're getting hosed.

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