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The mutation that helps Delta spread

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#221

Post by walterbell »

rescripting wrote: post #209
walterbell wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not having hospitals seriously compromises quality of life. A non-trivial percentage of healthcare workers were infected in 2020 and recovered with natural immunity to Covid. Some of those feel strongly enough about vaccine mandates that they are prepared to move jurisdictions or retire, which would exacerbate existing staffing shortages in some hospitals. If we don't want more hospital shortages, we should reconsi…

A recent study showed having had COVID before offers less protection from reinfection than the vaccine [0]. "The study of hundreds of Kentucky residents with previous infections through June 2021 found that those who were unvaccinated had 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with those who were fully vaccinated. The findings suggest that among people who have had COVID-19 previously, getting fully vaccinated p…

Detailed response to that study, https://satyameva.medium.com/analysis-of-reduced-risk-of-rei...

> Also what should be obvious is this study doesn’t really look at the relative strengths of naturally acquired immunity vs vaccination acquired immunity, it is looking at whether vaccination can add further to the robust protection elicited by covid infection.

Latest UK data shows 137 confirmed cases of reinfection out of 5.2 million first-positive PCR tests, which works out to 0.003%, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... (see chart on page 18)

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#222

Post by HeroOfAges »

criticaltinker wrote: post #188
nawitus wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why use vaccines in a highly targeted way instead of giving it to everyone?

Because mass vaccination combined with a vaccine that does not necessarily prevent infection and transmission creates selective pressure that is likely to further enhance the fitness of the virus and will lead to variants that escape the immune response in both vaccinated and naturally infected individuals. Excerpts from [1]: - "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for…

Glad to see you're not getting downvoted for this. This line of thought and information will be dismissed as a conspiracy theory and will follow the same arc as the lab leak hypothesis. Meaning there will be attempts to discredit it with no more than appeals to authority until the truth becomes impossible to ignore.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#223

Post by lambdaba »

tcbawo wrote: post #102
johnbaker92 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's sad that this comment (and probably mine) downvoted despite being a reasonable long-term response to this virus. Instead of mandating this vaccine worldwide, why don't we focus on collectively building a better / stronger health that would prevent the large majority of severe cases?

I haven't seen an evidence that supplements would prevent the majority of severe cases, or the neurological damage done (in even mild cases). Is this something backed up by data?

Anyything that makes your immune system work properly will help, the reason Covid is even a subject is that there is a silent epidemic of immunocompromised people, a large number of which are unaware that they are - the kind of people who routinely get sick in the winter, for instance. It's very strange that we are pretending that healthiness doesn't exist or can't be improved. It can, and rather easily and cheaply (yes, Vitamin D is one, but also, especially for Covid, anything that improves vascular function, as the etiology of Covid is closely linked to vascular health... which is where Niacin (vitamin B3), vitamin C, and reducing /eliminating sugar come in).

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#224

Post by belter »

jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Thanks for sharing your experience.

>"... Of course the thing to emphasise is that, whilst it might break through, the vaccine still stops serious illness to a high degree...."

Important to note, vaccines do not protect you, its the immune response they trigger and the level of antibodies that will protect you.

What really should be happening should be a mass vaccination program and a mass antibodies level testing program at the same time. Except for a few clinical studies, whose results are only now starting to come out I do not think any country is doing that. Frankly it puzzles me a little bit.

There is not enough data yet to see how these antibodies levels reduce with time, but there is already plenty of information to show they drop dramatically after 6 months, hence the talk now of the third shot.

Hence I think its better to say vaccines will produce level of antibodies that will protect...for now.

"Understanding mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#225

Post by bcrosby95 »

Covzire wrote: post #69
hutzlibu wrote: post #61

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

For most people I know, other than mask requirements when going out certain places and the constant fear mongering on TV, COVID-19 is completely over and their lives are back to normal, complete with in person graduation parties this summer, going to ball games, family gatherings like it doesn't exist, etc. Other than both my parents last year (who recovered, didn't need hospitalization but were very ill for 2 weeks)…

I have a friend that is an ER nurse that works at Cedars and she's ready to quit because of the attitude that "covid is over". She loves her job and helping people but the shitty attitudes of patients and people in general over this issue have caused her to rethink her life choices.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#226

Post by vkou »

criticaltinker wrote: post #188
nawitus wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why use vaccines in a highly targeted way instead of giving it to everyone?

Because mass vaccination combined with a vaccine that does not necessarily prevent infection and transmission creates selective pressure that is likely to further enhance the fitness of the virus and will lead to variants that escape the immune response in both vaccinated and naturally infected individuals. Excerpts from [1]: - "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for…

> Because mass vaccination combined with a vaccine that does not necessarily prevent infection and transmission creates selective pressure that is likely to further enhance the fitness of the virus and will lead to variants that escape the immune response in both vaccinated and naturally infected individuals.

And yet, the Delta variant evolved in an 100% unvaccinated population - and is quite happily punching through some of the protections afforded by vaccines, despite not having any evolutionary pressure to do so.

> "The speed at which nAb resistance develops in the population increases substantially as the number of infected individuals increases, suggesting that complementary strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission that exert specific pressure on other proteins (e.g., antiviral prophylactics) or that do not exert a specific selective pressure on the virus (e.g., high-efficiency air filtration, masking, ultraviolet air purification) are key to reducing the risk of immune escape"

Doesn't this mean that the problem is in having a large number of infected individuals? Which is exactly what happens when a virus sweeps through the unvaccinated population - see, delta.

Also, since Covid and its variants seems to happily re-infect people who have already had it, the same evolutionary pressures will still be present, as long as there's a large reservoir of sick people, regardless of whether they are rubbing shoulders with vaccinated individuals, or 'caught it eight months ago' individuals.

We have two broad options for reducing the number of dangerous COVID mutations.

1. Harsh lockdowns, Australia/NZ/China style, to bring cases down. It works, but everyone hates it.

2. Mass vaccination, that gets us to herd immunity against the most prevalent strains of COVID, so that we no longer have millions of active cases. We're not there with 50% of the population vaccinated. We might be there if we were at 85%.

Since you seem to think that #2 is not the solution, what is your plan for stopping the evolution of the virus? #1?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#227

Post by criticaltinker »

jdavis703 wrote: post #165
hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Yeah, as long as COVID-19 fills up hospitals we should do this. Not having hospitals seriously compromises quality of life. I had untreated kidney stones for about a week at the peak of the pandemic. When I was in the middle of an attack I could not work, the pain was too severe. I was missing several hours of work everyday just dealing with pain. I finally got to the emergency room which did basic imaging and gave m…

First off, I'm sorry you had to suffer like that - and I don't want anyone to be denied healthcare.

> I’d rather vaccinate and mask up then be denied healthcare

You've presented a false dichotomy here - mass vaccination and masking will not necessarily prevent overwhelmed hospitals.

Israel is a prime example - with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - their hospitals are being overwhelmed right now due to the variants. The CDC is reporting similar data from the U.S. [1][2][3]. There's no doubt that vaccination is saving some lives, but it also may be partly to blame for the increasing dominance of variants of concern. [4][5]

And counterintuitively, compulsory masking is likely setting us up for a very bad winter in terms of endemic illnesses such as influenza and RSV - which poses an increased risk of overwhelming medical facilities even further.

I only raise these counterpoints to help inform others and bring much needed nuance to these discussions.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

[3] https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/08132021_covidupdate.htm...

[4] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/

[5] Can we predict the limits of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their phenotypic consequences? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evoluti...

[6] The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections https://www.pnas.org/content/117/48/30547

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#228

Post by insulanus »

baxtr wrote: post #93
hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Why indefinitely? If that was the case we would need shots for the other cold viruses as well, which we don't. As you say, Sars-2 will turn into an endemic virus and thus we will get used to it over time, death rates will drop and it will turn into a cold. There is absolutely no historic precedent to think it will turn out differently.

We don't have vaccines for the 200+ viruses that cause "the common cold". The flu, which is usually a more serious disease, has a vaccine that is updated and offered yearly.

80% of US medical personnel already take the yearly flu shot.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#229

Post by lambdaba »

BobbyJo wrote: post #204
johnbaker92 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Health goes beyond taking nutrients (although they might help). Here we're talking about exercise, nutrition, mental health etc: - None of those were advocated by governments during this pandemic. - Some measures (lockdowns, etc.) were detrimental to individual health and (imo) contributed to complications we've been seeing. This is generally backed up by common sense (which - just like the flu - has mysteriously dis…

What's mysterious about the flu disappearing? The precautions taken to reduce COVID were extremely effective against influenza. Given that it was much more broadly circulating, and therefore a large percentage of the population had antibodies to dominant strains (more than COVID even now), one would expect masks and isolation to basically destroy it's spread no?

It's also possible that viral disease dynamics are just like that, with one virus dominating at a time (amongst this class of highly contagious respiratory viruses).

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#230

Post by colordrops »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #201
tunesmith wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the best article I've recently read that describes what is currently going on: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has... (Pulitzer Prize winner for science communication)

Thanks for the link! Lots of interesting details in there. I'll attempt a TL;DR of points most relevant for non-Americans (but please check the article for context, particularly on numbers, and link to sources): - Delta variant has ridiculously high R₀ - estimated to be between 5 and 9, where initial COVID-19 variants had it around 2 to 3. - Viruses spread nonuniformly. Old COVID-19 (R₀ = 2-3) tended to spread throug…

What is the delta variant R₀ in fully vaccinated communities though? Certainly it's not in the range of 5 to 9. If it's something like 2, then sure, a mask mandate makes sense for everyone. But if it's much lower than 1, then is it fair to force the vaccinated to wear masks? Is this sort of information hidden from the public because officials are too cowardly to force vaccine passports? There are so many information gaps like these that leave room for doubters.
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